乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析

乌鲁木齐河流域气候变化的区域差异特征及突变分析李瑞雪1,张明军1,2,金爽1,熊友云1,刘园园1(1,730070;2,730000):利用乌鲁木齐河流域气象站的气温和降水资料,运用一元回归分析法和5年趋势滑动,进行了气候变化的趋势分析结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域的年平均气温在20世纪60-80年代偏低,90年代以后偏高,即80年代前呈下降趋势,90年代后呈上升趋势,并且秋冬季升温幅度较大;60年代降水量最少,之后逐渐增多,2000年以来迅速增多;气温变化在空间上表现出上游气温低于下游,秋冬季气候变暖明显早于春夏季;降水变化的空间差异也明显在此基础上,利用滑动T检验法YAMAMOTO检验信噪比(SNR)Mann-Kendall法Cramer法和Pettitt法进行气候突变分析结果表明:乌鲁木齐河流域气温降水突变不明显,不同方法检验的结果不太一致;春夏季气温可能在1997年发生突变,而秋冬季在80年代末90年代初发生突变:;;:P467:A:1000-6060(2010)02-0243-08(243~250)2007IPCC41:100(1960-2005)0.74,,0.4~0.82-6,7,,8-11,8645~8756E,4300~4407N,,,4684m2,,,,,,,214.3km12,,,,,50,11.12000-2007,,1.22,5,,TYAMAMOTO(SNR)33220103ARIDLANDGEOGRAPHYVo.l33No.2Mar.2010:2009-04-17;:2009-07-22:(40701035;40631001;40571033);;(101019);(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-45);:(1982-),,,,.E-mai:[e-mail]:(1975-),,,,,.E-mai:[e-mail]-KendallPettitt,TYAMAMOTOCramer,t,,,nj(n=1,2),,,nj,,,Mann-Kendall,,,,13-1422.12.1.1440.5~3804m,3363.5m,7.0~-7.1,14,,12,,,20607080,90,80,90(1),:80,80-5.45,6.61,7080,;90,,:(1)60,,,7080,,902000-200760,8090,,90,;(2)9070,608080,906070,;(3)70,70;(4)70,,6090,0.45~0.67,501590,1/Tab.1InterdecadalvariationofannualandseasonalmeantemperatureinUrumqiRiverBasin/20607080902000-20071990-2007()-0.31-0.37-0.470.181.270.670.30-0.31-0.56-0.301.250.39-0.21-0.24-0.210.050.850.41-0.89-0.17-0.650.561.561.00-0.42-0.71-0.430.441.460.89()-0.08-0.21-0.520.260.670.450.78-0.27-0.940.230.820.240.890.48-0.85-0.480.04-0.29-0.14-0.16-0.700.320.850.55-1.86-0.870.401.451.070.292.1.2,,2090,(1),:(1),,;(2)800,800,90;(3),60;(4),,70,80,,;90244331(1960~2007)(-,-5,-,-0)Fig.1InterannualvariationofannualandseasonalmeantemperatureinUrumqiRiverBasin(breakline-temperaturedeparture,curveline-fiveyearsmovingtrend,slopline-trend,dotline-zerodeparture)2452:,2000-2007,80,0.36/10a0.14/10a,,0.570.29,0.15/10a0.23/10a0.56/10a0.49/10a,0.170.570.510.42,,,,;-0.05/10a-0.30/10a0.24/10a0.85/10a,-0.04-0.40.240.56,,,,,,,2.2200km,25~50km,6358.3km2,,,,2.2.1,,48a(1960-2007)498.5mm,48a(1960-2007)262.8mm,419.5mm,2007,131.3mm,1974,3.1,,2060-80,90(2):(1),60,,70802000;(2),80,,,;(3),2000-2007,;(4),,60,6080,902000,58.4~307.5mm,,,;,;,2/mmTab.2InterdecadalvariationofannualandseasonalmeanprecipitationinUrumqiRiverBasin/mm20607080902000-20071990-2007()-60.5-69.9-86.0-7.1307.5375.0-11.8-13.5-19.2-1.856.824.2-24.7-39.2-56.222.8118.765.4-23.5-21.2-16.1-32.2113.932.7-6.3-1.8-0.3-1.712.34.6()-44.2-13.921.536.858.443.9-15.9-10.21.316.710.213.8-19.0-21.20.916.628.321.8-14.9-5.523.1-3.00.3-1.5-13.6-4.9-3.76.519.612.32.2.22060~80,,,21,(2),:(1)80,,2000-200760,90,;(2)60~80,60~70,,;(3),90,90,;(4),60,2000246332(1996-2007)(-,-5,-,-0)Fig.2InterannualvariationofannualandseasonalmeanprecipitationinUrumqiRiverBasin(breakline-precipitationdeparture,curveline-fiveyearsmovingtrend,slopline-trend,dotline-zerodeparture)2472:7868mm/10a,0.370.62,,;1535253.7mm/10a,0.240.410.320.33;8.4143.67.7mm/10a,0.330.490.210.66,,16-17,208090,,,,,80,,,3(3),,3Tab.3AnnualandseasonalabruptchangesofclimateinUrumqiRiverBasinTYAMAMOTOM-KTM-KYAMAMOTO1997***1994***(Pettitt)1962**1964**2006**1991**1992**1995*2002*1991*1992*1998***1999***1998***1998***1994**1996**1998**1994*1995*1991*1991*1991***1993***-2005*2006*2007*(Cramer)1986*1987*1986*1998***2001***2003***1971***1972***1972***1971**1972**1998**1999**1997**1998**2002***1994**1996***1997***1999***1994*1995*1996*1997*1997***(Pettitt)1964**-1981**1984**-1976***1979***1978**1977***1979***1976**1972***1985*1987*1987***2007**(Cramer)1995*1987*1995*(Cramer)1963**1965**2002**1979**1980**1972**1976**1976*1979*1980*-1976*(Cramer)1979***1981***1987*1987***2007***1996**1998**1996*1998*1964***2002***2004***1979***1980***1982***1979**1980**:******0.050.010.001:(1)M-K1964,1997,;(2),1998,1979,;(3),1991,TCramer1995;(4),M-K1998-248332003,19791981;,TSNR1998,19961998M-K2002,1997,8090,:(1)90,1992,80;(2)1994,1987,,90,80;(3),2005,1976,;(4),19721987;,90,7080,4(1)2060~80,90,80,90,50(2),,,,,,(3),,2060~80,,21(4)1997,8090,907080,(References)1TheReportofIPCCClimateChange2007.Thephysicalbasiscl-imateM.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2007.2,.J.,1994,20(12):19-26.DingYihu,iDaiXiaosu.Temperaturechangeduringtherecent100yearsoverChinaJ.MeteorologicalMonth-ly(inChinese),1994,20(12):19-26.3,,,.80J.,2004,62(5):634-646.ChenLongxun,ZhouXiuj,iLiWeiliang,eta.lCharacteristicsofthecl-imatechangeanditsformationmechanisminChinainlast80yearsJ.ActaMeteorologicaSinica,2004,62(5):634-646.4,.J.,2005,10(4):791-798.TangGuol,iRenGuoyu.Reanalysisofsurfaceairtemperaturechangeofthelast100yearsoverChinaJ.ClimaticandEnvironmentalRe-search,2005,10(4):791-798.5,,,.J.,2008,63(3):257-269.JiaWenx-iong,HeYuanqing,LiZongxing,eta.lTheregionaldifferenceandcatastropheofclimatechangeinMountainQilianJ.ActaGeo-graphicaSinica,2008,63(3):257-269).6,,,.50J.,2004,62(2):228-236.WangZunya,DingYihu,iHeJinhaieta.lAnupdatinganalysisoftheclimatechangeinChinainrecent50yearsJ.ActaMeteorologicalSin-ica,2004,62(2):228-236.7,翀,杨大庆,等.我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其(I):J.,2004,26(5):587-594.YeBaisheng,LiChong,YangDaqing,eta.lVariationtrendofprecipitationanditsimpactonwaterresour