英语科技论文翻译

AreCounterfactualDecisionsRelevantforDynamicallyConsistentUpdatingunderNonexpectedUtility?*不可预期效用下的动态一致性更新与反事实的决定有关吗？PeterP.WakkerCentER,TilburgUniversity,TheNetherlands中心、昆士兰大学,荷兰December,19971997年十月ABSTRACT.Thispaperproposesanewupdatingmethodthatpreservesdynamicconsistencyinnonexpectedutility.Givennonseparabilityofdisjoint解体events,preferencesconditionalonanobserved观测的；观察的eventalsodependoncounterfactualoutcomes,i.e.,outcomesthatwouldhaveresultedoutsideoftheconditioning调节；整修；条件作用event;thispointhasbeenwell-understoodintheliterature.Thispaperarguesthat,asaconsequence,alsocounterfactualdecisionsarerelevant.Anewstrategicmethodforupdatingthenfollows.摘要。这篇论文提出了一种保护不可预期效用下的一致性新的更新方法。考虑到解体事件的不可分割性，对所观察事件的偏好条件，取决于反事实的结果还是会引起外调节事件的外部。这一点在文学里有很好的理解。这篇论文认为，作为一种结果也是反事实决策相关的，一种新的如下战略手段用来更新KEYWORDS:dynamicconsistency,resolutechoice,updating.JournalofEconomicLiteratureClassificationNumberD81.Pleasesendeditorialcommunicationsto:PeterWakkerCentER,TilburgUniversityP.O.Box90153,Tilburg5000LE,TheNetherlands*ThispaperbenefittedfromdiscussionswithRakeshSarinandwithparticipantsinaconferenceonuncertaintyineconomics,Dept.ofEconomics,JohnsHopkinsUniversity,Baltimore,November1993,andfromdiscussionswithJean-YvesJaffrayandattendentsataseminaronrisk,uncertainty,anddecision,LAFORIA,UniversityofParisIandVI,France,December1996.2关键词:动态一致性、果断抉择,更新。《经济文献分类号码D81。请寄给编辑通讯:彼得韦克尔中心、昆士兰大学邮箱90153号c昆士兰5000,荷兰本文也从沙林和关于经济学上不确定性的会议上的讨论，经济学部门，美国约翰霍普金斯大学、巴尔的摩,1993年11月,以及和JaffrayJean-Yves和参加一个关于危险性、不确定性、和决定的研讨会的出席者的讨论。LAFORIA,大学巴黎Ⅰ和VI,法国,1996.21.INTRODUCTIONThispaperproposesanewupdatingmethodfornonexpectedutility,calledstrategicupdating.StrategicupdatingfollowsthedynamicdecisionprinciplesofresolutechoiceadvocatedbyMcClennen(1988,1990)andMachina(1989,1991),inparticularitpreservesdynamicconsistency.Itdeviates,however,fromthemethodofresoluteupdatinggenerallyadoptedintheliteratureandcalledcommittedupdatinginthispaper.Undercommittedupdating,afixedchoiceisassumedatcounterfactualdecisionnodes,sothatthereisnomorecounterfactualdecisiontobetaken.Understrategicupdating,notonlycounterfactualoutcomes,butalsocounterfactualdecisionsremainrelevant.Letmeemphasizethatstrategicupdatingdoesnotinducenewpreferencebehavior,differentfromresolutechoice.Themainresultofthispaper,Theorem5.1,showsthatresolutechoicemaximizesthestrategicallyupdatedfunctionalateverydecisionnodeofeverytree.Thatis,strategicupdatingisfullyinlinewithresolutechoice.Theclaimofthispaperisthereforethatthenaturalwayforupdatingresolutechoiceisstrategic,andnotCommitted.1。介绍本文提出了一种应对不可预期的效用的更新方法,称为战略更新。战略更新的动态决策原则,遵循McClennen倡导(1988、1990、)和净化(1989—1991),果断的选择它尤其保护动态的一致性。然而它背离从果断的更新方法一般在文学中使用在本文中称为承诺更新。在承诺更新下,一个固定的选择被假定为反事实决策的准则,因此不存在采取更多的反事实的决策。在战略更新下不仅反事实结果而且反事实的决定仍然是相关的。让我强调战略更新不会引发新的偏好行为,不同于果断抉择。本论文的主要成果,定理5.1,显示果断选择最大化战略更新功能在每一个决策节点的每棵树。即战略更新完全符合果断的选择。这篇论文的声明因此是更新果断选择是一种自然的方式战略的反攻不是忠心承诺。Ifstrategicupdatingisconsideredundesirable,Ihopethereaderwillnotholdthatagainsttheanalysisofthispaper,butwillinsteadquestionthepremiseoftheanalysis,beingresolutechoice.Inthatcase,thispapercanbeinterpretedasanegativeresultforresolutechoice.Ihopethatthispaper,evenifinterpretedasacriticismofresolutechoice,neverthelesscontributestoourunderstandingofdynamicconsistencyinnonexpectedutility.Theoutlineofthepaperisasfollows.如果战略更新被认为是不良的,我希望读者不会要反对本文的分析,而是质疑果断决策分析的的前提存在在这种情况下,论文可以解释为阴性结果为果断选择。我希望这篇论文即使编译成一个批评果断抉择,不过有助于我们了解在不可预期效用下的动态的一致性。在这篇文章的提纲如下。Section2summarizesthedifficultiesinapplyingnonexpectedutilitytodynamicchoiceandupdating.第二部分总结了针对动态选择和更新在不可预期效用下应用的困难。Section3definesresolutechoice,第三节定义了果断抉择,committedupdating,andstrategicupdating.Inthenextsection,Example4.1repeatesprinciplesofrevealedpreference,inparticularmenuindependence(everychoiceoptionhasanintrinsicvalue,independentofcompetingoptions).Thatprincipleunderliestheconceptofutility,andhasbeengenerallyacceptedinpreferencetheoriessuchasconsumerdemandtheory.Example4.2isaspecialcaseofExample4.1.Itappliestherevealed3preferenceprinciplestoupdatingunderresolutechoice.承诺更新、战略更新。在下一节里范例4.1显示性偏好的原则,特别是“菜单”独立”(每一个选择的选择有一个内在价值,独立于选项)。这个原则强调效用的概念,已被普遍接受的偏好理论如消费者偏好需求理论。范例4.2是范例4.1的一个特殊例子。它将已经揭示的三个优先原则应用到果更新果断决策上。Menuindependencethenleadstotrategicupdating,andnotcommittedupdating.Theorem5.1statestheresultformally,forgeneraldecisiontrees.Section6presentssomeexampleswherecommittedupdatingdoesresult.Ineachcasetheresultisduetoconfoundingf.混杂；混淆actors,notrepresentativeofriskttitude,suchasextraneous外来的；没有关联的；来自体外的commitmentsorhiddennodes.Section7presentsapplicationsofstrategicupdating.Section8,finally,rephrasestheargumentofthispaperintermsofinseparabilityofevents,andconcludes.菜单独立导致策略更新而不是承诺更新。定理5.1正式地阐述一般决策树的结果。第六节提出了一些承诺决策的确引起结果的例子。在每种情况下由于混杂致病因素,不代表的风险态度,如不相干的事情,或者隐藏的节点结果都是不一样的。第七节提出了应用战略更新。第八节,最后,重述本文的针对不可分割的事件的观点并得出结论。2.NONEXPECTEDUTILITYINDYNAMICDECISIONSToday'spreferenceistheupdateofyesterday'spreference(Machina,1989,p.1652).Hence,decisionmodelsshouldbeabletomodelupdatedpreference.Indeed,updatingisacentraltopicofdebateinthemodernnonexpectedutilitytheories.Newimpulseshavecomefromgametheory,whe