世界粮食危机引发的思考

:,200540,,,;20072008;,:;;;;,:2007720087,4(1):FAO;JoachinvonBraun,2008a1,20032008,,2008,,:FAOIMF30,;;,(,),,,:(1)?(2)?(3)?,,2007,4()20094©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,2080,,:1985200765419%914%,152929%21%;:6216z2018z16184018z2618z3214(,),,;20,(),,,,;,2,;,,,,2008,20012007(3):2008;vonBraun,2008b2:(USDA/ERS),20083,?,,(1)1999/2000,10,;,,,,,,,20055:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(USDA:GRAINSREPORT)()1977/78244164418396101091268018124103561577131987/8831313105135111319111799152631345813197151990/9134510126175531717015815191951247317141121991/9235311126185511516210813131941449316140191992/9335715123135471617517841192191351215162151993/9435911119115521418114836141811150913129131994/9536512117185241416211853181961553514152191995/9636812118145441815513835161621153613132171996/9737817120165731416415869132021156010165161997/9837917127195771519710867152161257317166121998/9938812134135791120719869122371958111190191999/0039917143155851120815882132321860419193162000/0139511147125841220518884122111161010174132001/0241311133145851420116906191981362315151102002/0340716103166031716613903101701762811126122003/044131082115871513214945181411064819104162004/054081174156061915016978121781668810131142005/064151576176241414716991151641470410123172006/0741912751161518125111009171361572017107132007/0842317721161910109171062151261077116101195yearchange3195%-30141%2135%-34103%17166%-26119%22185%-19126%10yearchange11159%-43163%7119%-44131%22148%-41172%34150%-38169%20yearchange35124%-31153%21106%-42160%32190%-52115%68136%-48141%30yearchange73119%60199%56132%0145%56107%1163%116146%31181%:,2008;:FarmandTradeInc12008200720,,,,,,,,,;,,,,(),,,,,,2008,,:6()20094©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2005),21,(4),206070,,,3040(5),,,,:,,,,,:12008;vonBraun,2008b4:;Barker,20085,203040,,,,,,,,2007,:,,,50%,,,,,,,,,,;,,,7:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()()10%;,20%,,,,,,,,,:(1)?(2)?,,?(3)??(4)?(5)??(6)(VS;VS;VS,)?,,;,11Barker,Randolph1THEGLOBALRICESECTOR:AnOverview,apaperpresentedatForumonRiceResearch:keyissuesfromnationalper2spectivesheldintheInternationalRiceResearchInstitute,thePhilippines,Feb11819,20088()20094©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:;;;;,,,,2090,,;2006,,,,,V()2090,,,,90,,,,,,21FarmandTradeInc1:GlobalReview:achangingworld,apaperpresentedatForumonRiceResearch:keyissuesfromnationalperspectivesheldintheInternationalRiceResearchInstitute,thePhilippines,Feb11819,200831USDA/ERS:USAgriculturalTradeDataset141vonBraun,Joachin:FoodandFinancialCrises:ImplicationsforAgricultureandthePoor,IFPRIFoodPolicyReportNo120,WashingtonD1C1,December200851vonBraun,Joachin:RISINGFOODPRICES:WhatShouldBeDone?IFPRIPolicyBrief,April2008(:,,210095):9:3:(:07AJY006)(:05JJDZH246)©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(Monthly)No14/2009MAINCONTENTSReflectionsontheWorldFoodCrisisZHONGFuning(4)Thisarticletakesforthattheworldgrainsmarketpricerisingbefore2005isduetotherapidgrowthingrainproductioninthepast40yearswhichledtodeclininginrealprices,therebyreducesthegrowthrateofgrain,andthelong2termmarket2distortingpricesignalsdelaystheresponsesofthefarmers,thepublicsectorandscienceandtechnologyworkers;Thedirectcauseofgrainpricesoaringandslumpingin200722008isthespeculativehotmoney;Theessenceoffoodcrisisistheissuesofin2comeratherthanprice,theGovernmentshouldreplacepricescontrolpolicybytheincomepolicy1IssueonGrainSecurityinAgriculturalTransforminginChina:AnAnalysisfortheGrainIncrementContributiveRateofGrainProductionBasedonRegional2changeandVariety2adjustmentYANGWanjiang(9)InagriculturalstructuraladjustmentandeconomictransforminginChina,ChinesegrainoutputhasbeenaVtrack1Thepaperdesignsacomputableexpressionongrainincrementcontributiverate(GICR),andappliesGICRtoChinagrainproductionchangebetween199521999and2003220071Itshowsthatgrainincreasecontinuallypowerless,thecoastalregionreducesfasterinthethreemainre2gionalcombinedparts,especiallyricevariety,thustheauthorestimatethatthosemaybemainfactorsaffectinggrainincreasecontinuingandseverelyhidingtroubleforensuringgrainsecurityinthefutureinChina1TheMechanismsandPathofIndustryFinancingAgriculture:BasedonTheoreticalAnalysisoftheExperienceofJiaxingCityQIANFangming(16)TheRuralSanitationProject:FarmersAwareness,BehaviorandInfluencingFactorsAnalysis:BasedontheEmpiricalStudyofHubeiProvinceLIChongguangandCHENShibo(20)Inthispaper,515householdsquestionnairedatafrom26villagedemonstrationprojectsatsixcit2ies,countiesandDistrictinHubeiProvinceisbeenusedtoanalysisanddiscussthefarmersaware2ness,wishesandinfluencingfactorsonthevillagesanitationprojects1Affectedbythefarmerslowed2ucationlevel,theinformationocclusioninrurala