冰岛危机、货币脆弱性与东亚货币合作

200982008,,,,,,,:F831.59:A:100726964[2009]08209060420417,,,,?,,?2008,,,(OECD),2007GDP202,,,,GDP2/32007GDP64548,4,(Jackson,2008)2008,IMF,2008GDP0.3%,,12.1%2009GDP,,,,,,,,3GDP,31.3,,,(),,,16,,,,,12004(20082009,)02:IMF(WEO,Oct2008)200981GDP:%()/2004200520062007200820097.7047.4494.4324.8560.303-3.0934.8765.0226.1184.4752.2771.78:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,200810,2007,,46.11%,12008,4.5,2009,,2GDP:/200420052006200720082009118.355121.712132.614140.039158.507174.582109.139113.74120.816123.446126.27128.912:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,2008102GDP2004,,2008GDP150,,,2009GDP174,,:1.,(Keynes,1931),,,,,2.(1),,,,,351,,352(2004:012008:09)0.009530.025300.043190.074860.010450.026260.045860.078040.011820.026690.048210.082580.012950.027030.049810.082910.013150.027390.050260.084890.013920.032500.050300.092500.015510.034260.050700.097590.017150.034700.054600.099010.018000.035100.064890.101090.018370.037630.066650.111030.023730.041720.070440.114290.024130.042250.071450.118040.025250.042820.074170.17492:(BIS):(),,200421220098,352(),2004120089,,,12,,,,,,1,10,,IMF,,,,(2)(currencymismatch),,();,()(GoldsteinandTurner,2005),,420083,,1997,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,(3),,4()()1223821530281.60.0799711035100034.70.11031101395542093.80.1870427778109445.60.25381864072777700.3110766933205538.60.32565387243974129.80.397533269155019.70.594171650742395970.68897465513652.412.74532144233044522.332.3956820566186079333.829854129798713.147.3974884531211635.572.64939390754656.5595.20792:(BIS),,,,IMF25,,,,,,,1976(99%),,200187%7%,,4.,22=/,,,:,20098,,1985,5OECD()GDP()26545.0415746.46.38%42883.01564091.22.74%3652.418998.519.22%974129.84844354.320.11%239597.0953483.325.13%98745.01142627.08.64%14655.0135735.710.80%44269.0481147.79.20%71247.0567415.712.56%34004.0512906.86.63%45024.0492539.59.14%76682.0798859.69.60%42384.02787363.31.52%60793.014334016.80.42%:(BIS),,514OECD,,,GDP20%,25%GDP19.22%,143,,,1/420081071311,,,(2008)1.103,20005102015,2010,,5,10+3,,,,,,,1.36(),3300(),GDP1061(),GDP164()2.(1)1997,,,2008381.3%,60%,30%(2),(2007)IMF,,,,,,,32:IMF(WEO,Oct2008):(BIS)20098,,,,1997,19991200563.81,,,1997,8.27,,2005,,,,,,,200876.83,8.27,,198326,7.830,,,(2009),,,,(3),,,,,,,,,20022004,4425,3977,,0.01%,,,,3.,,,,,,,,19731997,,,,,,,,2007,10,300%,100%,,24%,,,,1945,,,,199742:(2005):200984.20,,,,,16,,,,,,,,,,10,,,[1],..,2009(3).[2][](M.Goldstein)(P.Turner)..,2005.[3]..,2008(12).[4]..,2007(5).[5]..,2005(5).[6]JamesK.Jackson.IcelandsFinancialCrisis.CRSReportforCongress,OrderCodeRS22988,2008.[7]Keynes.J.M.TheConsequencestotheBanksoftheCollapseofMoneyValues.EssaysinPersuasion,NewYork:Norton,1931.(:)52No.8,2009(SerialNo.186)WorldEconomyStudy20098Contents&AbstractsBorderEffects,ScaleEffects,andIndustryDevelopmentStrategyinBigCountrieswithAdvantagesofBackwardnessBaiMin(3)Thisarticleresearchestheindustrydevelopmentstrategyoflessadvancedbigcountryfromtheperspectiveofbordereffectsandscaleeffects.Theconclusionsareasfollows.Wheninstitutingindustrydevelopmentstrategy,thepatternofsustainablede2velopmentshouldbeconsideredfirstlybythecountrieswithadvantagesofbackwardness,andtheruleofthecomparativeadvantageshouldntbeastheonlyfoundationindoingit,instead,thecountriesshouldtakeadvantageofscaleeffectsandprotectionofbor2dereffectstograspcoretechnologyforindustryupgrading,whatsmore,theindustrydevelopmentstrategyoflessadvancedbigcountrymustfocusondomesticmarkets.Overall,beingthelargestdevelopingcountryoftheworld,Chinasdevelopmentstrategywhichincludestransformationofthepatternofeconomicgrowth,independentinnovationandexpansionofdomesticneedsisato2tallyappropriatestrategyforitsindustrydevelopment.AnAnalysisontheMechanismofGlobalTradeImbalanceandChina’sPositionZhangHaiyanSongYuhua(9)Co2existenceofhugecurrentaccountdeficitinUSandsurplusinChinaisnotonlyaprominentrepresentationofglobaltradeimbalancenowaday,butalsoaclearreflectionofpositionofdevelopedcountriesandnewemergingeconomiesintheworldecono2myandglobalproductionsystem.ItsalsotheinevitableresultoftheconflictbetweenUStradepatternandEastAsiatradepattern.Chinagrowsrapidlytoactasanimportantpowerintheworldeconomy,whileaconclusioncanbedrawn,afteranaly2singthestructureofChinastradecommodityanditsflowandtermsoftrade,thatChinaplaysasroleofthebreakthroughofcon2flictbetweentheabovetwopatterns.ChinashouldunderstandEastAsiatradepatternmoredeeplysoastoexploreamoresci2entificdevelopingway,andshowtheworldeconomyamoresustainableway.EquilibriumRealExchangeRateofRMBandItsMisalignment:19952007DuYunsu(14)UndertheframeworkofBEER,thispaperhasanalyzedtheequilibriumrealexchangerateofRMBanditsmisalignmentu2singthedata:1995,Q12007,Q4.TheresultindicatesthatRMBwasovervaluedduring1996,Q21998,Q4andtherearetwoobviousundervaluationperiodsduring1999,Q12005,Q3.Sincethenewroundofexchangeratereform,RMBhasbeenover2valuedtoacertainextentwithgradualappreciationofRMBsnominalexchangerate.Undercurrentcircumstancesoffinancialcri2sis,itisurgenttoadapttheoriginalgradualappreciationpolicy,avoidingtheside2effectofovervaluationonrealeconomy,espe2ciallyexport.IcelandCrisis,CurrencyVulnerability,andEastAsianMonetaryCo