城市扩张与经济增长

〔〕1002－2031201511－0053－07〔DOI〕10．13239/j．bjsshkxy．cswt．151108、———〔〕1987－2013VAＲ、。。U。〔〕〔〕F299．22〔〕A〔〕1962—1993—。〔〕41461026。〔〕2015－05－22〔〕2015－06－26。Bertinelli1。2。Abdullah2060－70213。Vaz4。GennaioHabibi、5－6。。GDP7。·35·2442015118。20909。10。U11。2030Ｒobertson“”。。Kaldor12。Balassa10GDP13。Helpman、BhagwatiKunst14－16。、17。18。19。、bootstrap20。。。、。、1．。。。2．21。3．22。、。。。、1．1987－2013、Eviews7．2·45·《》201511、、VAＲ。lnGDPt=β1*lnPOPt+β2*lnLANt+β3*lnTＲAt+ut12．POP、LAN。23。/。TＲA。。GDP。GDP。1987《》《》。GDP1978lnGDPt、lnPOPt、lnLANtlnTＲAt。1．、“”ADF1。1ctkADF5%lnGDPcn00．408744－2．9862250．9792lnPOPct0－2．274445－3．5950260．4321lnLANcn0－1．076122－2．9810380．7095lnTＲAct0－2．823422－3．6220330．2036DlnGDPcn2－3．238851－2．9862250．0294DlnPOPct2－6．034733－3．6032020．0002DlnLANcn2－5．041899－2．9862250．0004DlnTＲAct2－4．242461－3．6032020．0133c、t、k、nD。lnGDPt、lnPOPt、lnLANtlnTＲAtADF。ADF5%。。2．24。JohansenVAＲAICSC。VAＲk2Johansenk12。·55·《》201511、2JohansenNone0．73725850．168140．029833．414610．0079Atmost10．35952816．753530．658211．138730．6335Atmost20．1686005．6148050．74054．6161090．7893lnG-DPt、lnPOPt、lnLANtlnTＲAt45%1。VAＲ2Yt=Φ0+Φ1*Yt－1+Φ2*Yt－2+Φ3*Yt－3+εt2Yt=lnGDPtlnPOPtlnLANtlnTＲAt'Φ0=c10c20c30c40'Φ1=aij4*4Φ2=βij4*4Φ3=γij4*4εt=ε1tε2tε3tε4t'。lnGDPlnPOPlnLANlnTＲAt=－0．770．931．443．26+1．130．100．410．02－0．050．54－0．380．090．61－0．070．490．031．480．131．060．48t－1lnGDPlnPOPlnLANlnTＲAt－1+－0．180．01－0．29－0．100．360．120．34－0．16－0．46－0．040．230．01－0．41－0．32－2．100．07t－2lnGDPlnPOPlnLANlnTＲAt－23AＲ1VAＲ2。lnGDPt=0．448980*lnPOPt+1．090560*ln-LANt+0．186857*lnTＲAt－4．65685845．9542319．6860622．628347－8．461236Ｒ－squared=0．989360F－statistic=712．87721%tＲ20．989F712.87721987－2013、。4。1GDP0．19《2014》201313．9%45.4%。。3．、VAＲ23。310%、。。。。·65·《》201511、3lnPOPlnGDP3．250．19lnGDPlnLAN10．420．00lnLANlnGDP4．900．08lnPOPlnLAN3．080．21lnTＲAlnGDP5．760．05lnTＲAlnLAN1．000．61lnGDPlnPOP0．310．85lnGDPlnTＲA8．410．01lnLANlnPOP0．100．95lnPOPlnTＲA1．850．39lnTＲAlnPOP0．420．81lnLANlnTＲA8．860．014．24。VAＲ2lnG-DP、lnPOPlnLANlnTＲA2。2GDP2aGDP。GDPGDPGDP。2bGDP。2cGDPGDP。2dGDPGDP。GDP。·75·《》201511、5．2050U。12。GDP。YGDPX1978YX、。Y=C+C1X+C2X2+C3X355CC1、C2、C34。10%Y=42．0909+1．928242*X+－0．000603*X26C10C20C30GDPU。UX=－C1/2C2Y。GDP1598．871584/。GDP1598．87GDP。。《2014》20131543/。。4GDPCC1C2C3Ｒ2F264．3217＊＊0．917337＊＊000．8299122．027042．0909*1．928242＊＊－0．000603＊＊00．8973104．8027208．6799*0．7151660．001235－7．10×10－7＊＊0．914582．0210*、＊＊10%5%。1．、。1987－2013、。、。“”。、。U。2．、。·85·《》201511、、。【Abstract】UsingthetimeseriesdataofGuangxifrom1987to2013andadoptingpopulationurbanizationandspatialurbanizationastheindexofurbanexpansionVthisessaystud-iesempiricallyonthedynamicrelationshipsamongthemwithAＲmodel．Theresultsshowthatthereisthelong－termequi-libriumrelationamongthemandspatialurbanizationhasgreatereffectoneconomicgrowth．Itisalsofoundthatthereisacausalrelationshipamongforeigntradespatialurbanizationandeco-nomicgrowthbutpopulationurbanizationisnottheGrangercauseofforeigntradeandeconomicgrowth．FurthermoreitisfoundthatthecurveisinvertedU－shapedbystudyingtheKuznetscurveofthepopulationurbanizationandeconomicgrowth．【Keywords】urbanexpansionforeigntradepopulationurbanizationeconomicgrowthGuangxi1BertinelliL．BlackD．UrbanizationandGrowthJ．JournalofUrbanEconomics20045680－962DengX．Z．HuangJ．ＲozelleS．UchidaE．GrowthPopula-tionandIndustria－lizationandUrbanLandExpansionofChinaJ．JournalofUrbanEconomics20086396－1153AbdullahJ．CityCompetitivenessandUrbanSprawlTheirIm-plicationstoSocio－EconomicandCulturalLifeinMalaysianCit-iesJ．Procedia－SocialandBehavioralSciences20125020－294VazE．NijkampP．GravitationalForcesintheSpatialImpactsofUrbanSprawlAnInvestigationoftheＲegionofVenetoItalyJ．HabitatInternational20154599－1055GennaioM．P．HerpergerA．M．BurgiM．ContainingUrbanSprawlEvaluatingEffectivenessofUrbanGrowthBoundariesSetbytheSwissLandUsePlanJ．LandUsePolicy200926224－2326HabibiS．AsadiN．CausesＲesultsandMethodsofControllingUrbanSprawlJ．ProcediaEngineering201121133－1417．J．2005626－298．J．·2003552－589．J．200459－1810．GISJ．201171521－152811．J．20132447－45412KaldorN．StrategicFactorsinEconomicDevelopmentJ．Scot-tishJournalofPoliticalEconomy1967140－4913BalassaB．ExportsandEconomicGrowthFurtherEvidenceJ．JournalofDevelopmentEconomics19785181－18914HelpmanE．KrugmanP．MarketStructureandForeignTradeM．TheMITPress1985261－26715BhagwatiJ．N．Export－PromotingTradeStrategyIssuesandEvidenceJ．WorldBankＲesearchObserver1988327－5716KunstＲ．MarinD．OnExportsandProductivityACausalA-nalysisJ．ＲeviewofEconomicandStatistics19894699－70317．J．20071224－2718．J．20098100－10319．J．2012938－4020．、bootstrapJ．2013322－2821．M．201464－6622．M．2005258－25923．J．20035635－63924．EViewsM．2009267－283·95·《》201511、