英语科技文选-课文

科技文选电子教材UnitoneATheKnown,TheUnknownandTheUnknowable1.Wearealltaughtwhatisknown,butwerarelylearnaboutwhatisnotknown,andwealmostneverlearnabouttheunknowable.Thatbiascanleadtomisconceptionsabouttheworldaroundus.2.Theknownispressedonusfromthefirst.Inschoolwestarteachcourseatthebeginningofalongbookfullofthingsthatareknownbutthatwedonotyetknow.Weunderstandthatbeyondthatbookliesanotherbookandthatbeyondthatcourseliesanothercourse.Thefrontierofknowledge,whereitfinallybordersontheunknown,seemsfarawayandirrelevant,separatedfromusbyanapparentlyendlessexpanseoftheknown.Wedonnotseethatwemaybeproceedingdownanarrowpathofknowledgeandthatifwelookslightlyleftorrightwewillbestaringdirectlyattheunknown.3.Evenwhenwearerightontheedgeoftheunknown,wemaynotbeawareofit.ThoseofuswholearnedthehistoryofthePersianWarsinschooldidnotknowthattheeventssovividlydescribedareallbasedonthewritingsoftheonesourcewhosurvived—Herodotus.IfyouwanttoknowalmostanythingthathappenedintheGreeceofthattimeanditwasnotrecordedbyHerodotus,itisunknownandinallprobabilitycanneverbeknown.Butwedidnotthinkofhisaccountsasfragmentsofknowledgeontheedgeoftheunknown;itwasjustmorestufffromthehugepileoffactswehadtolearnaboutthehistoryofGreece.4.Becauseofsuchlessons,wegrowupthinkingmoreisknownthanactuallyis.Ifwehadabetterdescriptionofthelimitsofpresentknowledge,thatdescriptioncouldbeapartofwhatwearetaught.Suchinsightwouldgiveusabetterperspectiveonwhatisknownandwhatiscurrentlyunknown.5.Intime,manythingsnowunknownwillbecomeknown.Wewilllearnmoreaboutwhatliesbelowthesurfaceoftheearth,andwemaylearnhowneuronsinteracttoletusperceiveandthink.Theaccumulatingpileofdatacanbemisleading,however.Beyondthecurrentlyunknownarethethingsthatareinherentlyunknowable.6.Fewunknowableareconsciouslyrecognizedassuch.Theoutcomeofaspinningroulettewheelandthelocalweatherthreemonthsfromnowbelongtothatsmallclass.Everyday,however,webumpintophenomenathatmaywellbeunknowablebutthatwedonotrecognizeassuch.Someoftheseunknowableformthebasesofrespectedprofessions.Brokersmakealivinganticipatingthefluctuationsofstockprices.Presidentsrunforofficebasedonclaimsofwhattheywilldoforavastandpoorlyunderstoodeconomycomposedofmanyunpredictablyinteractingsectors.Wedonotevenknowifwearedealingherewiththepartlyknown,themainlyunknownortheunknowable.7.Nevertheless,weunconsciouslyrecognizethattheunknowablesurroundsus.Nobodythinksaboutorpretendstoknowwhowillrunforpresident20yearsfromnow.nowdopeopletrytopredicttheautomobileaccidentstheywillbeinvolvedin.toknowthatwewillbestruckbyacarnextyear,wewouldhavetoknow,withimpossibleaccuracy,theparticularsofthelifeofthedriver,hishabits,histiming,hiswayofpressingtheacceleratorandsoforth—allthefactsthatareneededtobringhimwithperfectprecisiontothatunpleasantencounter.Itisclearthatallthesedetailsareunknown,andwedonottryveryhardtolearnaboutthembecauseweinstinctivelyrealizetheyarealsounknowable.8.Indistinguishingtheknownortheunknownfromtheunknowable,thelevelofdetailcanbedecisive.Thelevelofdetailiswhatseparatesthedelusionofthegamblerfromthewealthofthecasinoowner.Thegamblerattemptstopredicttheindividualandunpredictablespinsoftheroulettewheel;theownerconcernshimselfwiththequitepredictableaverageoutcome.9Thepredictionprocessisaidedbythefactthattheartificialisgenerallysimplerthanthenatural.Therollofabowlingballdownanalley,forinstance,iseasiertopredictthanthemotionofanirregularstonetumblingdownaroughhillside.Itislikelythattheartificialwillincreasinglysaveusfromtheunpredictable.Itmaybeeasiertomovegraduallytowardacompletelyenclosedearthwhoseclimatecouldbeartificiallycontrolledthantolearntopredictthenaturalweather.10Itisincreatingtheartificialandcontrollablethatscienceexcels.Scienceandengineeringhavemadeitpossibletoconstructthepartiallyartificialsurroundingsweliveintoday,repletewithhugebridgestrucks,airplanes,antibioticsandgeneticallyalteredspecies.Wearelikelytobuildanincreasinglyartificial,andhenceincreasinglyknowable,world.11Twolimitationsmayconstrainthemarchofpredictability.First,astheartifactsofscienceandengineeringgroweverlargerandmorecomplex,theymaythemselvesbecomeunpredictable.Largepiecesofsoftware,astheyareexpandedandamended,candevelopadegreeofcomplexityreminiscentofnaturalobjects,andtheycananddobehaveindisturbingandunpredictableways.Andsecond,embeddedwithinourincreasinglyartificialworldwillbelargenumbersofcomplexandthoroughlyidiosyncratichumans.BTheWest’sdebttoChina1Oneofthegreatestuntoldsecretsofhistoryisthatthe‘modernworld’inwhichweliveisauniquesynthesisofChineseandWesterningredients.Possiblymorethanhalfofthebasicinventionsanddiscoveriesuponwhichthe‘modernworld’restscomefromchina.Andyetfewpeopleknowthis.Why?2TheChinesethemselvesareasignorantofthisfactasWesterners.Fromtheseventeenthcenturyonwards,theChinesebecameincreasinglydazzledbyEuropeantechnologicalexpertise,havingexperiencedaperiodofamnesiaregardingtheirownachievements.WhentheChinesewereshownamechanicalclockbyJesuitmissionaries,theywereawestruck.Theyhadforgottenthatitwastheywhohadinventedmechanicalclocksinthefirstplace!3Itisjustasmuchasurprisef