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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:3(06&ZD004-01)(07&ZD004);,,,,:;;(,);(,),?,,,,,,,(,,,),U5060,,,(,2009),1978,,GDP1978362411()2008300670(),3091797%,:80,;90,10%,;,,,,,,4:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,2003,2008),GDP197847188%,20084816%GDP,GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,(),(),?,:;;;11(1995)1977157,,019079(1989)1981151,,GNP,0181(2004)168GDP,(2004)200276GNP,,GNP,01823819762007GDP,GDP(1),,,,:(1)GDP1,75,(USA)(CAN)(AUS)(FRA)(SWE)(GBR)5200910GDP:urban=16813129-72132343ln(pgdp)+11113383(ln(pgdp))2-0147673(ln(pgdp))3©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2),GDP1,58%75%,(JPN)(DEU)(ITA)(GRC)GDP30%,,;,,,(3)GDP6000,,75%,(BRA)(85%)(CHL)(88%)(ARG,91%)(MEX,76%),GDP50%70%,(GDP2550)GDP,,GDP3000,2006GDP4785,78%,(GDP36608)1GDP:(1)WLDCHN-PLATGDP,;(2)19762007GDP,,,,,(,2000)6:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(1)WLDCHN-PLAT;(2)19762007Singelmann(1978)Daniels(1991),,Harris(1995),,,,,Changetal(2006),,7200910:ind=35317086-151170763ln(pgdp)+23103883(ln(pgdp))2-1108493(ln(pgdp))3-0132413urban©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2008),,,,;GDP,,,,33:(1)WLDCHN-PLAT;(2)19762007311975,S,4,30%,,10%30%70%,30%,,70%70%,200845168%,Logistic18008:GDP:serv=-37816158+169128843ln(pgdp)-23197353(ln(pgdp))2+1109853(ln(pgdp))3+0171953urban©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=11+106891669e-01043574t,19782007,0104357,01017292013(20112016),1109%,47193%53137%,Logistic(5),202057167%,203067181%203067181%,200845168%,1,1400,,203068%,,,68%20,68%5(1),9200910©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(6)6,((12)u),,()()(),,,,,,6,:;,:Y=L1-u0xidi,01(1),YLxii,u[0,u]xi,xi=x,,(1):01:,u,,u,1,,,,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=uL1-x,01(2)xp(1),:maxL,xuL1-x-px-wL(3)(3):p(x)=uL1-x-1(4)w(x)=(1-)uL-x-1(5)x:R=p(x)x-r(u)x-h(6),p(x)x(),r(u)x,r(u),u,r(u),h:maxxp(x)x-r(u)x-h(7)(7):2uL1-x-1=r(u)(8),0,(6):uL1-x-r(u)x-h=0(9)(8)(9):(1-)r(u)x=h(10)(10):x=h(1-)r(u)(11)(2)(11):Y=Aur(u)-L1-,01(12),A=h1-,(12),r(u)-u(12):,(12)u;,(12)r(u)-(12):5Y5u=[1-ur(u)-1r(u)]r(u)-AL1-(13)r(u)-AL1-,5Y5u1-ur(u)-1r(u)11r(u)u1P,ur(u)Pr(u)1P,Yu;21r(u)u1P,ur(u)Pr(u)=1P,Yu;31r(u)u1P,ur(u)Pr(u)1P,Yu,,r(u),(12):Y(ku,kL)=Akur(ku)-(kL)1-=k2-Aur(ku)-(L)1-,k1(14),r(u),:r(ku)=kr(u)(15)11200910©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(15),(14):Y(ku,kL)=k2-2Aur(u)-(L)1-(16)015,:Y(ku,kL)=k2-2Aur(u)-(L)1-kAur(u)-(L)1-(17)(12);=015,:Y(ku,kL)=k2-2Aur(u)-(L)1-=kAur(u)-(L)1-(18)(12);015,:Y(ku,kL)=k2-2Aur(u)-(L)1-kAur(u)-(L)1-(19)(12),r(u),015,;015,;015,,,,?6,:jzlit=0+1urbanit+2gzcbit+3zfcbit+it(20),jzlurbangzcbzfcb,,i31,t19952007,,,,,(DEA),jzl-cyGDP(GDP),,,,21::Y=A0egtK1-(L)UYKLUGDP1-,,A0,g,:Ln(YPL)=c+gt+(1-)Ln(KPL)+1LnU+2(LnU)219902007242,012920,015,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(DEA),jzl-fwGDP(GDP),,,urban,,P,gzcb,,P,zfcb,()(),hjcb(1)1djzl-gydjzl-fwtt01007721140101175124djzl2cy(21)0139087158durban0107622181durban0103891190dgzcb-010031-3116dgzcb-010078-5151dhjcb0110633160dzfcb-010059-2134I2-010126-4105I3-010060-1157I4-010067-2103R201671R201728Wald17159[3]p=0100Wald34110[5]p=0100Sargan29119p=1100Sargan28144[120]p=1100M1-11876[31]p=01061M1-21044[31]p=01065M211299[31]p=01076M221970[31]p=01003:djzl-gydjzl-fwdurbandgzdcshcbdhjcbjzl-gyjzl-fwurbangzcshcbhjcb,I2I3I4,I1;I2;I3;I42(20),:5,,,,1,,,ArellanoBond(1998)DPD(dynamicpaneldataestimation),(DPD)(OLS),,,,,,11,,,:29(t-2t-9),69(t-6t-9);,,31200910©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=11000,Wald2,P0,R201671,,1(20),:jzl-gy=0+013908jzl-gy(-1)+010762urban-010031gzcb+011063hjcb(21):jzl-gy=010077+013908jzl-gy(-1)+010762urban-010031gzcb+011063hjcb-010126I2-01006I3-010067I4(22):(1)010077,,,,,,,7(2)010762,,(3)010031,,,,010031,,,(4)-010126,-01006-010067,,(5),(22),014031,77,,,:,;,21,,,:299(t-2t-99)41:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(t-2t-99),699(t-6t-99);,,11,tM1M2,Sargan2,p=11000,Wald2,P0,R201728,,1(20),:jzl-fw=0+010389urban-010078gzcb-010059zfcb(23):jzl-fw=010117+010389urban-010078gzcb-010059zfcb(24):(1)010389,,(2)-010078,,(3),,(3)-010059,,,,,,,,:,;,(21)(22):11,,(010762)(010389),,21,,,(-010031)(-010078),(-010059),,,,,51200910©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,;1992,,,,,;19971998,,,,,1997,,200845%:30%70%:30%50%,,,50%,,GDP3000,,11,,;,:(1),,,,,(2),,,,,,,90,,:40%,,GDP10%,,,,,,20002007,200090
本文标题:城市化、产业效率与经济增长
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