物流管理分析模型—鞭打效应(1)

——“”“”P&GForrester1958[1]3.13.1.1→→312“”13.1.2leadtime[1]J.W.Forrester.Industrialdynamics:Amajorbreakthroughfordecisionmakes.HarvardBusinessReview,37-66,July-August1958.1——03.1.3batchordering11113.1.43.2.3.MaterialRequirementPlanning:MRP1MRPjitters3.1.53.1.63.22——113.2.1.3.2.2.1123.1.4.3.2.3.3.2.1112……t……Dttd(≥0)ρ-1ρ1tεt0σ()1.31tttDdDερ++=−00td|t|d[]ρ−=1dDE[]()2.3122ρσ−=DVar()(3.3,3,2ˆ1ˆ11L=−+=−−tdDdtttαα)3——Lleadtimett+L+1LtdˆtL()4.3ˆˆtLtdLd=Ltσˆ()5.3ˆσσLLt=z(0)yttargetinventorylevel()6.3ˆˆLtLttzdyσ+=tqttt(Dt)(ttyy−+1))()(7.31ttttyyDq−+=+)00(ttyy−+1qtDt1()()()LtLtptttLtpjjtLtpjjttLtLtLtLtttttzDpLDpLDzpDLzpDLDzdzdDyyqσσσσσσˆˆˆˆˆˆˆˆ11111111−+−+=+−−+=++−+=+−=+−=−+=−++++∑∑4——13.723.633.23.43.1[][][]22221,1ρσρρσ−=−==−−ppttpttDDCovDVarDVar[][][][]()[]()8.31221,1212222tppttptttDVarpLpLDDCovpLpLDVarpLDVarpLqVar−++=+−++≥−−ρ[][]()()9.3122122pttpLpLDVarqVarρ−++≥z=0pL0ρ0ρρ0p1)1(−ρpp1)1(−ρpp[][]()()10.3111222122−−−−++≥ραραααpttLLDVarqVar5——Chen-Ryan-Smichi-Levi[2]z=0L0()≤−≤=−−−011101111ρρραρp=0ασσ−=22EXPpppMOV1+=σσ12+=pα=03.10[][]()1222114141222+++=++++=pppLpLppLpLDVarqVartt6[2]F.Chen,J.K.Ryan,andD.Smichi-Levi,Theimpactofexponentialsmoothingforecastonthebullwhipeffect.1999.toappear.——3.9[][]22221pLpLDVarqVartt++=3.2.2——→→→12……I……n2.2.iLititq21=02z=0It1ρ=02z=0ItpDdpkktit∑=−=1ˆItz=0tiitdLyˆ=7——[][]()11.32212211pLpLDVarqVarikkikktit++=∑∑==IttiitdLyˆ====∑∑=−−=−nipqipDdpjijtpjjtit,,3,21ˆ111LqitIt=+−=+−=−++niqyyiDyyqititittititit,,3,21111LIttiitdLyˆ=I=12n[][]()12.3,,1221122nipLpLDVarqVarikkktitL=∀++=∏=3.11.3.123.2.31——8——12……n02.5tIDitdσ23.2.1.ρ=0Rt-Rt-1tD0t∑∑=−−=′′=nitRttittDD110NN1/Rn(1-1/R)0[]−=RRnNVar112[]()11122222220−+=−+=RndnRRndRnDVartσσnRm=n/RN0[]()11122222220−+=−+=RndnRRndRnDVartσσ[]20σnDVart=()122−Rnd9——3.33.3.13.2.1.pα3.9pα3.2.2.POS(PointOfSales)Hewlett-PackardAppleP&GWal-MarkVenderManagedInventoryVMIPOS3.3.23.2.1.QR(QuickResponse)3.3.33PL3.3.410——3.3.5P&GEDLP:EveryDayLowPrice3.3.63.1.6.GeneralMotorsSaturnHewlett-PackardHewlett-Packard11