定价的策略和战术

9/9/20191TheStrategyandTacticsofPricing定价的策略和战术9/9/20192TheCost-PlusDelusion加成定价法的谬误•Financialprudence出于财务谨慎的考虑•Howtodeterminemark-up?如何决定加成比例?•Overpricinginweakmarketsandunder-pricinginstrongmarkets在疲软市场的过高定价和在强劲市场的过低定价9/9/20193ValueByCustomers消费者认定的价值•Affordablebutsufficientlysportycar消费者需要既买得起又潇洒漂亮的跑车•In1964,FordmetthechallengewithitsMustang,atabasepriceof$2,368.1964年福特推出定价为2368美元的Mustang车来迎接这项挑战•Netprofitsof$1.1Billion,in1964dollars,injustthefirsttwoyears在最初的两年间净利达11亿美元9/9/20194DevelopinganEffectivePricingStrategy设定有效的订价策略•customers’willingnesstopayforthegoodorservice消费者的购买意愿•costofprovidingthegoodorservice生产成本•degreeofcompetition竞争程度9/9/20195DemandCurve,I需求曲线02.5057.50101472demandcurve需求曲线Quantity(hamburgersaday)数量(汉堡包每天)Price($perhumburger)价格(美元每个汉堡包)9/9/20196DemandCurve,II需求曲线•themaximumpricetheconsumeriswillingtopay/marginalbenefit顾客愿意支付的最高价格/边际利益•themorethelessdesirable/diminishingmarginalbenefit越多就越不热切/边际利益递减9/9/20197DemandandIncome需求和收入•Normal/inferiorproducts正常/劣等品•Internationalandregionalbusiness国际和区域业务•expectedincome期望收入–IrrationalexuberanceinU.Sinthe1990s.美国90年代末：非理性旺盛–DeflationinJapaninthepastdecade日本最近十几年：通货紧缩9/9/20198FoeorFriend是互替还是互补•Pricesofrelatedproducts相关产品的价格–Substitutes:chicken/beef,video/movie替代品:鸡/牛肉,录像/电影–Complements:meat/wine,movie/popcorn互补品:肉食/葡萄酒,电影/爆米花9/9/20199Howtosecurecomplements?怎样得到互补品的支持?•DanRyan&UAPacificPlace香港太古广场的电影院和芝加哥风味的餐厅•Pepsi,AOL百事可乐,美国在线•PCCW,Softbank香港电讯盈科，日本软银•HKDisneyland香港迪斯尼乐园9/9/201910DemandforDurableGoods耐用品的需求•Expectationaboutfuturepricesandincome对未来价格和收入的期望•Financingcosts融资成本•Pricesofusedmodels二手货的价格–futurevalueofnewgood代表新货物的未来价值–substitutefornewgood新旧货物的替代关系9/9/201911Factorsinfluencingmarketdemand:影响市场需求的因素•Incomelevelanddistribution收入高低和分布•Populationanddemographics人口多少及构成•Marketsaturation市场渗透率•Networkexternality外部效用9/9/201912Price价格($)Sales销量TotalRevenue总收入($)TotalCost($)总成本Profit利润($)2000.0050-501900.23852-401800.47256161700.610262401600.812870581501.015080701401.216892761301.4182106761201.6192122701101.8198140581002.020016040902.219818216收入,成本,和利润9/9/201913Price价格($)Sales销量TotalRevenue总收入($)MarginalRevenue边际收入($)TotalCost($)总成本MarginalCost边际成本($)Profit利润($)2000.0050-501900.2381905210-401800.4721705620161700.61021506230401600.81281307040581501.01501108050701401.2168909260761301.41827010670761201.61925012280701101.81983014090581002.02001016010040902.2198-1018211016利润最大化的条件9/9/201914最优定价•Operateatscalewheremarginalrevenue=marginalcost边际收入=边际成本的规模•Equivalently,settheincrementalmarginpercentageequaltotheinverseofabsolutevalueofpriceelasticityofdemand,设边际毛利率等于需求价格弹性的倒数(price-MC)/price=-1/e9/9/201915自身价格弹性Own-PriceElasticity定义:1%的价格增长所引起的需求的变化量自身价格弹性=化变的格价化变的量求需%%9/9/201916PriceElasticity:Determinants价格弹性:决定因素•availabilityofdirectorindirectsubstitutes直接或间接替代品的多少–Perceivedsubstituteseffect(Woolite)被认为的替代效应–Uniquevalueeffect(Heinzketchup)独特的价值–Difficultcomparisoneffect(brandnameproducts)不可比较效应(名牌产品)–Price-qualityeffect(doctors,lawyers)价格—质量效应(医生,律师)–Inventoryeffect(cannedtomatoes,diapers)库存效应(罐装西红柿,纸尿片)9/9/201917MoreonDeterminantsofPriceElasticity再谈价格弹性的决定因素•cost/benefitofeconomizing寻找替代品的成本及收益–Expenditureeffect(engineoil)费用效应(引擎油)–End-benefiteffect(BabyandMichelin)终端利益效应（米其林和婴儿）•buyer’spriorcommitments买方是否有事前的投入•separationofbuyerandpayee购买者和付款者的分离9/9/201918Advantage竞争优势1981:AmericanAirlinespioneeredfrequentflyerprogram1981年:美国航空公司推出里程优惠计划•buyercommitment购买者事前投入•businessexecutivesflyattheexpenseofothers公差9/9/201919DemandElasticityUnderOptimalPricing最优定价下的需求弹性•alwayssetpricesothatdemandiselastic总是设立价格,使需求具有弹性•ifdemandmoreelastic,thenlowerincrementalmarginpercentage(IM%)如果需求弹性较大,边际毛利率就低(IM%)e=-1.5IM%=2/3e=-2IM%=1/29/9/201920PricingMovies电影票的定价•TuesdayMovies星期二电影–Pricedecreasedfrom$60to$30价格从60港币降到30港币–Numberofticketsincreasedby217%票房上升了217%•RevenueforTuesdays？星期二的营业额是否增加？•Whataboutotherweekdaysandweekends?其它周日和周末的营业额?9/9/201921摩尔(Moore’s)法则和计算机成本技术进步•固定成本增加•边际成本减少(单位计算能力的成本)9/9/201922RelevantMarginalCostsforPricing相关的边际成本•consideronlyrelevantcostsandignoreallothercosts仅考虑相关的成本,不考虑其它的成本•relevantcostsmaybehidden相关成本往往被传统损益表忽略•irrelevantcostsmaybeshowninaccounts不相关成本则可能出现在传统损益表9/9/201923WingOnGroup,1993永安集团,1993Revenue收入HK$2,236millionExpenses成本HK$2,210millionProfit利润HK$26millionOpportunitycost机会成本HK$53million9/9/201924ShanghaiPetrochemical,1994上海石化，1994•Profit:1.78billionyuan利润:17.8亿人民币•Thecompanyreceived4.5millionmetrictonsofcrudeatagovernment-controlledpriceof689yuan(ascomparedtofree-marketpriceof1100yuan),theopportunitycostofwhichis1.85billionyuan.公司获得450万吨政府补贴的原油,机会成本为18.5亿人民币。9/9/201925OpportunityCost机会成本•definition--netrevenuefrombestalternativecourseofaction定义：所有被放弃的可能方案中能带来的最大净收益。9/9/201926DebttoEquity债转股•InvestmentbytheSingaporeangovernmentinapetrochemicalplantinthe1980s80年代新加坡政府对石化企业的贷款•Stated-ownedenterprisesinChina中国国有企业9/9/201927EconomicValueAdded经济附加价值•任何融资都有成本：借贷要付息,股权要回报•EVA=revenue-allcosts(includingcostofequitycapital)经济附加价值=收入-所有成本(包括资本金的成本)9/9/201928AppleComputer苹果计算机•1988年夏:苹果用每芯片38美元共计几亿美元的代价购买1Megabit的DRAM晶片•1989年元月:市场价格跌到23美元;为给