我国对外贸易战略与人民币汇率制度研究

华中科技大学博士学位论文我国对外贸易战略与人民币汇率制度研究姓名：熊连庆申请学位级别：博士专业：西方经济学指导教师：徐长生20050515208019921994AbstractForeigntradestrategyandRMBexchange-rateregimearetwoimportantissuesintheprocessofChina’sopeningtotheoutside.Thisdissertationtriestoinquiretherelationofthetwoones.Foreigntradestrategyisessentiallythestrategyofindustrydevelopintheinternationalenviorment.Afterthereformandopeningtotheoutside,newstrategieshavebeenexploredinourcountry.Comparingandstudingtheexperienceofeconomicdevelopmentandtradedevelopmentofothercountries,especiallytheexperienceoftheexport-orientedeconomysuchasJapanandtheAsian“FourTiger”,targetoftransformingfromtheimportsubstitutionstrategytoexport-orientedstrategyhavebeenbroughtforwardin1980’s.In1992,establishingthesocialistmarketeconomysystemwastakenasthetargetofeconomyreform,whichmeansthattheexport-orientedstrategywasselectedasthenewstrategyofforeigntradeofourcountry.Export-orientedstrategyhasplayedabigroleintheoptimizingallocationofresourcesandtheupgratingofindustries,andalsohascontributedalottotheforeigntradedevelopmentandeconomicdevelopmentofourcountry.Butnowtheimplementingofexport-orientedstatagyinourcountryalsobroughtforthmanyproblems.Inpractice,theupgratingofChina’sindustriesdoesn’ttransformtonewinternationalcomparativeadvantagesandtheprofitswegetfromforeigntradeareverylimited,whichleadtotheproblemofimmiserizinggrowthofforeigntrade,namely,ononehand,theindustrycompetitivenessindicesisgoingdown,ontheotherhand,thetermsoftradeisalsogettingworseandworseandChinahasbecomeoneofthecountrieswhosetermsoftradeworsenmostsince1994.Atthesametime,theimplementingofexport-orientedstrategyalsohasledtotheheavyfiscalburdenofgovernmentandtheoverabundanceofforeignexchangereserve.Inthisdissertation,thecompetitiveadvantagestrategyissuggestedforChinaunderthenewinternationalenvironment.Competitiveadvantagestrategyisamodelinwhichthecomparativeadvantagesandnewtechnologyadvantagesarecombindedtogether.Basedonthecourrentcomparativeadvantagesoflaborandwage,thisstrategyfocusesonthetechnologyinnovation,institutionalinnovationandstructureupgradingtoimprovetheinternationalcompetitivenessoftheexportindustriesofourcountry.Throughtheanalysisoftheinternationalcompetitivenessofourcountry’sindustriesandthecomparingbetweenthecompetitiveadvantagestrategyandthetraditionaltradestrategies,itisarguedinthisdissertationthattheimplementingofcompetitiveadvantagestrategyisfeasiblenotonlytheoreticallybutalsopractically,andwhat’smore,thevastdomesticmarketofourcountryprovidesastrongsupportfortheimplementationofthisstrategy.Asamaininstrumentofmacroeconomicmanagement,foreignexchangeratenotonlyaffectstheforeigntrade,capitalflowandthebalanceofpayment,butalsohasimpactsonthecurrencycirculation,inflationandemployment,andthewholeeconomy.RMBexchangerateregimehasbecomeahotissuesbeingdiscussedextensivelyinrecentyears.Inthisdissertation,theRMBexchangerateregimeisstudiedinrelativewiththeissuesofforeigntradestrategy.ThepositiveanalysisofBalassa-SamuelsonHypothesisonthedataofourcountryshowsthattheRMBexchangeratemovesaccordingtoanaturallawofdepreciatingfirstandappreciatinglaterduringtheprocessofstrategictransition.TheregressionanalysisofChina’sdatashowsthatthereisnoevidentlinearrelationshipbetweentheRMBexchangerateandthevolumeofimportandexport.ApplyingMarshall-LernerConditionanalysistoChina’sdatashowsthatthedepreciationofRMBdoesnotnecessarilyleadtotheimprovementofourcountry’sbalanceofpayments.Combinedwithotheranalysis,itisconcludedthatkeepingastableRMBexchangerateisnecessaryfortheimplementationofcompetitiveadvantagestrategy.AsfortheconvertibilityofRMB,theconclusionofthisdissertationisthataconvertiblecurrencyisbetterfortheimplementationofthetradestrategy.Basedontheaboveanalysis,somepoliciesincludingacompetition-encouragingtradepolicyandaindustry-structure-optimizingpolicyhasbeensuggested.AproperRMBexchangeratepolicyisalsoproposedincooperatingwiththeimplementingofthecompetitiveadvantagestrategy.Keywords:ForeignTradeStrategyRMBExchang-rateRegimeComparativeAdvantageCompetitiveAdvantage_____111.1,,,,,,,,,,199219782003162198522.7199545200470198026198517199015199710200411547.435933.62001WTO31997200220011211WTO/1:8.2719941994200020721WTO2004126099.32200241997,199819981837.620034383.7,19981449.5920046099.32,199840051.22345671.31262,,,,,,,,,,—702.11776200[1]1817719191933EliHeckscher(BertilOhlin),1949(P.A.Samulson),,,2050,60,,20,50,,,,,1961(M.A.Posner)8,,19661961207070701985R[1]2080[2],[3]92.22.2.1[4][5][4][4]2.2.210[6]432.32.3.11[7]M.P.[8][9]11[10][11]2[6][12][6]3RichardGrabowski[13][14][15]Grabowski[13]2.3.2121232.3.3132.3.411234521460350196419689.419755.1[16]501958196958.13028.5[16]196725196926197332.3.5151970[17]16[17]80[18][19]90[20][21]8090[20][21],[22]17[20],[23]32.42080[2],[3]1231842.12.111923204421102.5222333.13.13.1195011.3520038512.17020031978206.383019500.9120035.8195027200342419851990198053.420028.746.691.33.1198034.865.253.446.6198517.182.954.245.8199018.581.525.6974.4199518.581.514.485.6200020.879.210.289.8200118.881.29.990.1200216.783.38.791.32002137655925412002712413