波士顿--中国网通：战略咨询报告完整版

-1-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextsteps-2-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIAGENDABusinessModels•Domesticandinternationallong-distancevoice•Wholesale/carrier•Enterprisesolutions•Issuesgoingforward-3-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIEconomicmodelingChoiceofbusinessmodelstopursueandtimingRoadmapforpursuingbusinessmodelsandexpectedfinancialperformanceIntegratedapproachtoCNCbusinessplanMajorissuesExpectedoutputHowdothemarketsizingandshareassumptionstranslateintooveralltoplinerevenueforCNC?Whatcapitalinvestmentswillbenecessarytobuildoutmetroandlonghaulfibernetworks?PredictedcashflowprofilebybusinessmodelandselectedscenariosAssessmentofmarketopportunitiesHowwillChinadatacommarketdevelop?Howlargeistheoverallopportunityforanewentrant?OverallmarketsizingandrevenueforecastbyproductareaRegulatoryandcompetitiveanalysisWhattypeofregulatoryenvironmentwillevolveinChina?Willequalaccessforvoiceanddatabegrantedandwhen?WhateffectwillWTOhave?RegulatorymappingandCNCsharepredictionsacrossscenariosStrategicimplicationsandcapabilitiesassessmentMETHODOLOGYBEINGUSEDTODEVELOPBUSINESSMODELSANDOVERALLSTRATEGY-Currentareasoffocus-4-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICNCATACRITICALSTRATEGICCROSSROADSPreliminaryConclusionsRecommendations/DecisionstobeMadeOffnetVOIPpredictedtogeneratetoprovidebreakeveneconomicsforbuildingbackbone1Wholesalerevenueprovidessignificantupsidepotential•MajorityofwholesalerevenuereliesonaccesstomobilecarriersEnterprisesolutionseconomicsveryattractive,butsubstantialcomplexityandresourcesinvolvedHigh-bandwidthinternationalgatewaycriticaltosuccessinbothwholesaleandenterpriseEconomicpredictionshighlysensitivetoasetofkeyassumptionsAcceleratevendorselectionandbackboneconstruction;timetomarketcriticalCommitmenttoutilizingIP/DWDMinvlolvesrisktomobilecarrierbusiness•RFPtovendorsshouldbebasedonproductrequirementsvs.technologyStagingofinvestmentsandservicelaunchmustconsidertradeoffbetweenqualityofserviceandcoveragePreliminarytalkswithinternationalcarriersshouldbeginASAPScenariomodelingwillhelpusdecidewheretofocusOverarchingquestion:CanCNCsuccessfullypursueallopportunitiesoutlinedintheshort/mediumterm?(1)Assumingsettlementfeesof10%ofrevenue-5-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIOverallapproachWhereHowBUSINESSMODELSSUMMARY:THREECOREELEMENTSEnterpriseSolutionsCapturedatacomgrowthinkeybusinesscenterswithleading-edgeproductsandsuperiorcustomerserviceTopbusinessdistrictsinmajorurbanareas;onlythemostdenseareasinshorttermFocusedDeployment•LeverageexistingconduitstolayinmajorurbanareasSuperiorserviceandbandwidth•TargetCT’sweaknessinserviceandbandwidthUtilizeLMDSinintermediatecitiesandareaswheretimetomarketiscriticalWholesale/CarrierTargetmobilecarriersandISPswithbackbonetransport;considersupplyingfixed-lineincumbentsCoverPOPsinallmajorcallingzones;developlocalleasedlinesnetworkinkeylocationsAggressivedeploymentofbackboneinfrastructuretoprovideunparalleledbandwidthEstablishhighbandwidthinternationalgatewaytodifferentiateinternetaccessSuperiorservicewithclearpositioning•“TheclearalternativetoCT”ISPLongdistancevoiceCaptureearlyrevenuefromtofunddevelopmentofsubsequentbusinessmodelsTop60POPsbyendofyear2000utilizingmixofleasedlinesfromCTandCNCnetworkPositionoffnetvoiceasfirstproductfrom“China’sfirstdatacomcarrier”DonotoverextendresourcesinVOIPasitdoesnotfitCNC’slongtermstrategyCreate“dial-around”solutionsforbusinessandinterconnectterms-17930--6-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIEnterprisesolutionsPOTENTIALBUSINESSMODELSCOVERWIDERANGEOFPRODUCT/MARKETALTERNATIVESOpportunityforgrowthCurrentmarketsizeWholesale/carrierConsumerISP?DomesticandInternationalLongDistanceVoiceResidentialMed/largeenterprisecustomersCarriersPotentialtrafficperconsumerProductsEmergingdatacomDataVoiceEmergingdataniche-7-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIAGENDABusinessModels•Domesticandinternationallong-distancevoice•Wholesale/carrier•Enterprisesolutions•Issuesgoingforward-8-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup--Confidential--DestroybyShredding--45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIAPPROACHTODOMESTICANDINTERNATIONALVOICEBUSINESSMODELObjectivesHypothesizedApproachCaptureearlyrevenuefromlaunchofprepaidIPcallingcards•“Cashcow”forfundingotherbusinessmodeldevelopmentPursueprefixandequalaccesslongdistanceforbusinesscustomersassoonaspossibletobeginestablishingrelationshipsManagepricingandproductlifecycleeffectivelytomaximizetotalmarginandavoidinvestingindecliningproductsDonotoverex