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2013InvestmentStrategyandOct–Dec2012ResultsPreview17January2013SeminarQuantsTomohiroOkawaMachineryShinjiKurodaAutosIsseiTakahashiAutoPartsMasahiroAkitaFood,Beverage,TobaccoSatsukiKawasakiPharmaceuticalsFumiyoshiSakaiChemicals,TextilesMasamiSawatoSteel,NonferrousMetals,CablesShinyaYamadaGlass&Ceramics,Paper,BatteriesJunYamaguchiDISCLOSUREAPPENDIXCONTAINSANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDTHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthis[e-mail]01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRepresentativeOffice17Jan2013Slide2CreditSuisseSecurities(Japan)LimitedContentsQuantsTomohiroOkawap.3MachineryShinjiKurodap.13AutosIsseiTakahaship.23AutoPartsMasahiroAkitap.33Food,Beverage,TobaccoSatsukiKawasakip.41PharmaceuticalsFumiyoshiSakaip.51Chemicals,TextilesMasamiSawatop.58Steel,NonferrousMetals,CablesShinyaYamadap.69Glass&Ceramics,Paper,[e-mail]01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRep[e-mail]@haocapital.netYanSong01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRepresentativeOffice17Jan2013Slide4CreditSuisseSecurities(Japan)LimitedJapaneseequitiesdeliverworld-beatingperformanceTOPIXhasrisenmoreinpastthreemonthsthananystockindexforothermajoradvancedeconomiesorforemergingmarkets.ComparisonwithSP500highlightssharpgainsinJapan.StockmarketperformancepastoneandthreemonthsRecentchangesofTOPIXandS&P500Source:Bloomberg,CreditSuisse0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%TOPIXINDEX(TOKYO)PSEi-PHILIPPINESEIDXCSI300INDEXHANGSENGINDEXFTSE/JSEAFRICATOP40IXCAC40INDEXFTSEMIBINDEXRUSSIANRTSINDEX$DAXINDEXBSESENSEX30INDEXBRAZILBOVESPAINDEXFTSE100INDEXJAKARTACOMPOSITEINDEXFTSEBursaMalaysiaKLCIS&P/TSXCOMPOSITEINDEXS&P500INDEXPast3MreturnPast1Mreturn0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jun-01Jun-15Jun-29Jul-13Jul-27Aug-10Aug-24Sep-07Sep-21Oct-05Oct-19Nov-02Nov-16Nov-30Dec-14Dec-28Jan-11TOPIXS&P500StartofLDPadmDissolutionofDPJadmSource:Bloomberg,[e-mail]01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRepresentativeOffice17Jan2013Slide5CreditSuisseSecurities(Japan)LimitedFactorssupportingcontinuedrise(1):ForeigninvestorsNetpurchasesbyforeigninvestorsareontherise.Significantnetbuyingbyforeignershasbeenkeysupportinpastbullmarkets.iSharesMSCIJapanoutstandingandtotaltradingvaluebyforeigninvestorsTotaltradingvaluebyindividualsTotaltradingvaluebyforeigninvestorsandTOPIX-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000Jun-01-12Jun-15-12Jun-29-12Jul-13-12Jul-27-12Aug-10-12Aug-24-12Sep-07-12Sep-21-12Oct-05-12Oct-19-12Nov-02-12Nov-16-12Nov-30-12Dec-14-12Dec-28-12bilJPYNoofshsiSharesMSCIJapanOutstandingLHSJapanTotalTradingValue(Foreigners)RHSStartofLDPadmDissolutionofDPJadm-2,000-1,800-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-2000200Jun-01-12Jun-15-12Jun-29-12Jul-13-12Jul-27-12Aug-10-12Aug-24-12Sep-07-12Sep-21-12Oct-05-12Oct-19-12Nov-02-12Nov-16-12Nov-30-12Dec-14-12bilJPYStartofLDPadmDissolutionofDPJadm600800100012001400160018002000010000200003000040000500006000070000Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11nettransactionsbyforeigninvestorsTOPIX(RHS)Source:TokyoStockExchange,[e-mail]01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRepresentativeOffice17Jan2013Slide6CreditSuisseSecurities(Japan)LimitedFactorssupportingcontinuedrise(2):IncreaseinlongmarginpositionsWhentheJapaneseequitymarketwasinclinedtowardlengthierbullandbearcycles,marginbuyingwaspositivelycorrelatedwiththesharepricetrendandmarginsellinginverselycorrelated.Theserelationshavebeenreversedsince2008,reflectingtheimpactoftheLehmancollapseandeurozonedebtcrisis.Thereversalindicatesthatmarginbalancesnowmerelyreflectspeculativeinvestmentbehavior.TotalbuyingonmarginandTOPIXTotalsellingonmarginandTOPIX6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11milshsJapanTotalMarginTransactionsBUY(LHS)TOPIX(RHS)positivecorrelationnegativecorrelation6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00005001,0001,5002,0002,500Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Dec-00Dec-01Dec-02Dec-03Dec-04Dec-05Dec-06Dec-07Dec-08Dec-09Dec-10Dec-11milshsJapanTotalMarginTransactionsSELL(LHS)TOPIX(RHS)positivecorrelationnegativecorrelationSource:TokyoStockExchange,CreditSuisseSource:TokyoStockExchange,[e-mail]01/17/1301:28:15PM868ManagementLimitedBeijingRepresentativeOffice17Jan2013Slide7CreditSuisseSecurities(Japan)LimitedFactorssupportingcontinuedrise(2):IncreaseinlongmarginpositionsHowever,therecentmarketrallyhasbeenaccompaniedbyanincreaseinlongmarginpos