词条的战略冲击到WTO里对中国和外国公司(1)

Lines1presentation-CEMS-xStrategicImpactofChina’sentryintotheWTOOnChineseandForeignCompaniesPresentationforCEMSUniversitiesinSt.Gallen,Stockholm,Bergen,MilanoNovember,2001Lines2presentation-CEMS-xContentPageA.ThemacroeconomicimpactofChina’sWTOentry3B.Automotive11C.Apparel&Textile22D.Pharmaceuticals36E.Banking42F.SecuritiesandAssetManagement48G.Insurances523presentation-CEMS-xA.ThemacroeconomicimpactofChina’sWTOentryLines4presentation-CEMS-xAlreadythetariffshavecomedownconsiderablyinthelastdecadebuttheystilldifferstronglybetweenindustriesWeightedaveragetariffratesofmanufacturedproductsWeightedaveragetariffswithandwithoutWTOaccessionSource:WorldBank,199946.54440.623.217.818.5051015202530354045501992199319941995199619971998OilseedsMeat&livestockDairyOtherfoodBeverages&tobaccoTextilesApparelWood&paperPetrochemicalsMetalsAutomobilesOthermanu.Totalmanu.Total27.423.55129.0320.221.597657.12123.4627.6826.7410.144.1614.8517.5420.16.246.954.829.3820.3413.766.747.997.94WithoutWithLines5presentation-CEMS-xTheimpactofChina’sWTOentryhasamacroeconomicaswellasindustry-specificmicroeconomicimpactMeasures•Tariffreductions•Abolishmentofnon-tariffbarriers–Quotas(imp./exp.)–Licenses–Localcontentrequirements–Distributionrestrictions–Investmentrestrictions–etc.•Introductionoflegalprotection–Copyrights–Auti-dumpingMicroeconomicimpact•Morecompetitors•Pricepressure•Newsourcingstrategies,lowerfactorcost•Moreproductvariety•Increasingproductivity,restructuring•ConcentrationprocessinsomeindustriesMacroeconomicimpact•Moreimport&export•AcceleratedgrowthofGDP•Acceleratedgrowthofincome(EDP/cap.)andwealth/cap•Moreforeigninvestment•Employmentincrease/decrease•StructuralchangetowardsmorecompetitivenessLines6presentation-CEMS-xTradingshorttermpainagainstlongtermgainisawalkonthewireShorttermpainLongtermgainSource:Dev.&Res.Ctr.OftheStateConnect,GoldmanBuck,WorldBankCorporateprofits(ROI)Employ-mentSocialcapitalGDPWealthTradeForeignInvestment(direct)•Price&qualitycompetition•Decreaseofprofitmargins•Increaseinbankruptcies1%additionalgrowthp.a.34%until2010•Highlossoflabor/jobsinsomeindustries(e.g.agriculture,automotive),butnewjobscreatedinotherindustries(e.g.apparel)•Increaseofskilledlabor•Rural-urbandiscrepancyinwealthandincome(+4.6%p.a./2.1%p.a.)1.15%additionalGDP/capp.a.60%ofpopulation6000USDincomeby20101.7%additionalexportgrowthp.a.1.3%additionalimportgrowthp.a.50bnannuallyLines7presentation-CEMS-xThemacroeconomicimpactofChina’saccessiontotheWTOwillbeespeciallystronginapparel,automobilesandelectronicsSomecategoriesasexampleWithoutaccessionWithaccessionWithoutaccessionWithaccessionWithoutaccessionWithaccessionFoodgrainsOtheragricultureBeverages/tobaccoExtractiveindustriesTextilesWearingapparelPetrochemicalsMetalsAutomobilesElectronicsUtilitiesTrade/transportTotal13.119.654.667.5910.376.874.715.191.802.562.512.383.1818.3014.716.8611.6513.238.577.108.423.474.413.643.494.9518.1014.444.4511.2513.7518.406.687.951.054.663.533.434.820.302.302.491.688.1919.522.543.370.134.965.851.703.700.180.740.860.168.3418.232.814.850.457.685.012.434.580.200.790.880.2010.1743.953.225.930.779.485.742.706.345.872.590.851.4913.140.973.914.111.853.481.121.893.2115.788.181.238.1415.830.974.605.081.724.921.652.274.7515.278.7314.427.8722.303.195.185.807.425.601.412.056.14Table10.Output,ExportsandImportsasaShareoftheWorldEconomyOutputExportsImports199520051995200519952005Source:,WorldBankanalysis2000Lines8presentation-CEMS-xWithsomedramaticconsequencesforemployment(1)Source:WorldBankandDev.Res.Ctr.oftheStateCouncilEmploymentofskilledlaborgrowth:1995~2005FoodgrainsMeat&livestockBeverages/tobaccoExtractiveindustriesWearingapparelWithoutaccessiontoWTOWithaccessiontoWTO29.1130.2569.8265.29-32.852.8860.5562.95116.460.21MetalsAutomobilesElectronicsOthermanufacturesBusiness/finance23.0426.5550.5936.5439.9142.1825.5224.8-48.1148.07Lines9presentation-CEMS-xWithsomedramaticconsequencesforemployment(2)Source:WorldBank,1999Jobslost/newlycreated(inm)5.4-5-5.4-1-2.52.6CommerceApparel&TextileCoHonWheatRiceAutomotiveLines10presentation-CEMS-xElect.mediatelecomMediapublishers1)FastmovingconsumergoodsHIGHMEDIUMLOWLowHighLowHighDegreeofglobalizationProtectionistbarrierstodayConstructionPharmaceuticalsConsumerelectronics/durablesBrandedFMCG1)(e.g.Coke)ApparelAutomotiveAgriculturalproductsTrans-portationCommoditysteelProtectionistbarriers-Tariffsin%-Quotalicenses-Investmentrestrictions-equity-regionalDegreeofglobalization-Marketshareofglobalbrands-Productionrelocationcostsin%oftotalturnoverDomesticcompaniesinglobalindustrieswhichenjoyedhighprotectionwillsuffermostImpact11presentation-CEMS-xB.AutomotiveLines12presentation-CEMS-xIntheyear2010ChinawillbethelargesttruckmarketinAsiaandpassengercardemandwillhavegrownto1.6mcars200020042009200020042009hipricemidpricelowprice+10%p.a.+14%p.a.6409601,650150150250+0%p.a.+10%p.a.heavymediumlightSource:DaimlerChrysler,RBPassumptions1302105004306501,00080100150PassengercarsTrucksLines13presentation-CEMS-xSource:ChinaPassengerCarProspect2001,RolandBergerStra