麦肯锡高科技行业战略系列-软件行业的展望

1、Insoftware抯comingshakeout,bigcompanieswillgetbigger,whilesmalleroneswillneedtoplaysmartorcloseshop.KENBERRYMANANDJIMSEABERGTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1Fartoomanysmallandmidsizeenterprisesoftwarecompaniesspendtoomuchonsalesandonresearchanddevelopmenttosurvivethecomingshakeout.Manyrelyoncashreserves,whileothersmilkmaintenancecontractsandupgradesonsoftwaretheyhavealreadysold.Thesesmallervendorsmighthavereachedtheirsell-bydate,fortheenterprisesoftwareindustrywillconsolidateascustomersbuyproduct。

2、sfromfewervendors.Onecompanyweknowrecentlyraiseditspreferredsupplier抯shareofitssoftwarebudgetto70percent,from10.Thissortofdecision梑ynomeansunusualamongsoftwarecustomersthesedays梚sgoodnewsforlargervendors,whichfindsynergiesinsellingbundledapplications,suchasenterprise-resource-planningorsupply-chain-managementsoftware.Butitisbadnewsforsmallcompanies.Thebigwillgetbiggerinenterprisesoftware,thoughnotprimarilythroughacquisitions,becausethedifficultyofintegratingtheproductsoftwomergingcompaniescanmak。

3、ethepricetoohigh.Suchcompaniescan抰simplypasteanewbrandnameonanacquiredlineandexpectittoworkseamlesslywiththeirexistingproducts.Softwaremustgenerallyberewritten,oftenextensively,toworkwithabuyer抯platform梐requirementthatreplicatesmuchoftheacquiredproduct抯R&Dcost.Companiesthathopetocreatecostsynergiesthroughacquisitionsbyremovingredundantselling,general,andadministrativeexpensescanencountertechnical-integrationcostssohighthatadealmakesnosense.Furthercomplicatingplanstoconsolidatearethedifficultiess。

4、omesoftwarecompanieshaveexperiencedtryingtoselltheirproductsintoanewlypurchasedcustomerbase.Companiesthatbuyothercompaniestoobtainaccesstotheircustomersratherthantheirtechnologyhavehistoricallyunderperformedthesectoraverage.Sotheupshotmightbeanindustrystructurefamiliarfromotherpartsofthetechnologysector:ecosystems,oreconomicwebs,1inwhichsmallervendors,withoutovertownershiporallianceties,orbitlargercompaniestodeliverajointvaluepropositiontocustomers.Inthisscenario,smallandmidsizeenterprisesoftwar。

5、ecompanieswillhaveachoice:beacquired,besqueezedout,orremainindependentandjointheecosystemsofbiggerrivals.Thosethatremainindependentneedtochoosetheirpositioncarefully,todecidehowtheywillgetfairvaluefortheircontributions,andtodefendtheirmarketpositionbyconstantlyaffirmingtheirdistinctiveness.Forsomeproductcategories,thisapproachcouldevolveintoatieredmodelsimilartothatoftheautomotive-supplierindustry,wheretop-tiercompanieshaveaccesstocustomersandlower-tiervendorsactassupplierstothelargerplayers.Itr。

6、emainstobeseenwhichpartywillbearthecostsoftechnicalintegration,butitwilllikelybetheonewithlessleverage梪suallythesmallercompany.Somesmallcompanies,however,willdononeoftheabove.Instead,theywillsurviveoutsideecosystemsbyexploitingnichemarketsorbysubsistingonmaintenancecontractsandupgrades.Aninstalledcustomerbasewillkeeptheseindustryorphansalivewhileofferinglittleopportunityforgrowth.Notes:KenBerrymanisaprincipalinMcKinsey抯SiliconValleyoffice,andJimSeabergisaprincipalintheDallasoffice.1JohnHagelIII,。

7、Spiderversusspider,TheMcKinseyQuarterly,1996Number1,pp.4?8.。