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1、Insoftware抯comingshakeout,bigcompanieswillgetbigger,whilesmalleroneswillneedtoplaysmartorcloseshop.KENBERRYMANANDJIMSEABERGTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1Fartoomanysmallandmidsizeenterprisesoftwarecompaniesspendtoomuchonsalesandonresearchanddevelopmenttosurvivethecomingshakeout.Manyrelyoncashreserves,whileothersmilkmaintenancecontractsandupgradesonsoftwaretheyhavealreadysold.Thesesmallervendorsmighthavereachedtheirsell-bydate,fortheenterprisesoftwareindustrywillconsolidateascustomersbuyproduct。
2、sfromfewervendors.Onecompanyweknowrecentlyraiseditspreferredsupplier抯shareofitssoftwarebudgetto70percent,from10.Thissortofdecision梑ynomeansunusualamongsoftwarecustomersthesedays梚sgoodnewsforlargervendors,whichfindsynergiesinsellingbundledapplications,suchasenterprise-resource-planningorsupply-chain-managementsoftware.Butitisbadnewsforsmallcompanies.Thebigwillgetbiggerinenterprisesoftware,thoughnotprimarilythroughacquisitions,becausethedifficultyofintegratingtheproductsoftwomergingcompaniescanmak。
3、ethepricetoohigh.Suchcompaniescan抰simplypasteanewbrandnameonanacquiredlineandexpectittoworkseamlesslywiththeirexistingproducts.Softwaremustgenerallyberewritten,oftenextensively,toworkwithabuyer抯platform梐requirementthatreplicatesmuchoftheacquiredproduct抯R&Dcost.Companiesthathopetocreatecostsynergiesthroughacquisitionsbyremovingredundantselling,general,andadministrativeexpensescanencountertechnical-integrationcostssohighthatadealmakesnosense.Furthercomplicatingplanstoconsolidatearethedifficultiess。
4、omesoftwarecompanieshaveexperiencedtryingtoselltheirproductsintoanewlypurchasedcustomerbase.Companiesthatbuyothercompaniestoobtainaccesstotheircustomersratherthantheirtechnologyhavehistoricallyunderperformedthesectoraverage.Sotheupshotmightbeanindustrystructurefamiliarfromotherpartsofthetechnologysector:ecosystems,oreconomicwebs,1inwhichsmallervendors,withoutovertownershiporallianceties,orbitlargercompaniestodeliverajointvaluepropositiontocustomers.Inthisscenario,smallandmidsizeenterprisesoftwar。
5、ecompanieswillhaveachoice:beacquired,besqueezedout,orremainindependentandjointheecosystemsofbiggerrivals.Thosethatremainindependentneedtochoosetheirpositioncarefully,todecidehowtheywillgetfairvaluefortheircontributions,andtodefendtheirmarketpositionbyconstantlyaffirmingtheirdistinctiveness.Forsomeproductcategories,thisapproachcouldevolveintoatieredmodelsimilartothatoftheautomotive-supplierindustry,wheretop-tiercompanieshaveaccesstocustomersandlower-tiervendorsactassupplierstothelargerplayers.Itr。
6、emainstobeseenwhichpartywillbearthecostsoftechnicalintegration,butitwilllikelybetheonewithlessleverage梪suallythesmallercompany.Somesmallcompanies,however,willdononeoftheabove.Instead,theywillsurviveoutsideecosystemsbyexploitingnichemarketsorbysubsistingonmaintenancecontractsandupgrades.Aninstalledcustomerbasewillkeeptheseindustryorphansalivewhileofferinglittleopportunityforgrowth.Notes:KenBerrymanisaprincipalinMcKinsey抯SiliconValleyoffice,andJimSeabergisaprincipalintheDallasoffice.1JohnHagelIII,。
7、Spiderversusspider,TheMcKinseyQuarterly,1996Number1,pp.4?8.。
本文标题:麦肯锡高科技行业战略系列-软件行业的展望
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