上海高端住宅市场

RentalCapitalValueGrossYield租金售价收益率High-endApartment高端公寓ServicedApartment服务式公寓Villa别墅OverallMarket整体市场Source:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Research数据来源:上海高力国际研究部OVERALLRESIDENTIALMARKETFollowingthestrongreboundinH12009,theoverallresidentialmarketexperiencedsomeeasebackintransactionvolumetowardstheendofQ32009,yetwithpricestillfirmingupfurther.Transactionvolumewithintheinner-ringareaedgeddownby1%M-o-MinJulyand8%inAugust,thoughonY-o-Yterms,therewasstillstrongincrease,andaveragepricesurgedby31%inthelasttwomonths.Drivenbyabundantliquidityandexpectationofassetpriceappreciation,thehigh-endresidentialmarketshowedstellarperformance.Incontrast,transactionsinthemassmarketstartedtoretreatfollowingthepricesurgeinthepastfewmonths,amongwhichpricesinsomedistricts,suchasSanlininPudongandDaninginZhabei,evensurpassedtheirpreviouspeaks.Thepricesurgetosomeextenthasrestrainedend-userdemand,therebyleadingtoafallintrans-actions.Inordertopreventdevelopers’frommanipulatingsalesbyholdingupsupply,theShanghaimunicipalgovernmentissuedthe“ProvisionalReg-ulationsonSalesPlansofCommodityHousinginShanghai”inend-June.Inaddition,themunicipalgovernmentalsoreiteratedstrictenforcementoftherequirementthatfloorareasoldbydevelopersinpre-saleshouldnotbelessthan30,000sqm.Meanwhile,theShanghaiBankingRegu-整体住宅市场继上半年强劲反弹后，三季度末上海整体住宅市场成交量有所放缓，然而成交价仍进一步走强。虽然7月和8月内环内销售面积环比分别下降1％和8％，但这两个月同比增长仍保持强劲，成交均价同比上浮31％。受宽裕的流动性和资产价格升值预期影响，高端住宅市场销售火爆。与此相反，在中、低端市场，房价经历前几个月急速上涨已处于较高水平，如浦东三林、闸北大宁等部分区域房价甚至已高于历史最高水平，这在一定程度上抑制了自住需求，从而导致成交量下滑。为抑制开发商销售过程中的“捂盘惜售”现象，上海市政府在6月底出台了《上海市商品房销售方案备案管理暂行规定》，另外重申严格执行商品房销售有关申请预售面积不得低于3万平方米的规COLLIERSINTERNATIONAL|SHANGHAIHIGH-ENDRESIDENTIAL|THIRDQUARTER|2009High-endResidentialMarket上海高端住宅市场OutlookforQ420092009年第四季度预测HIGHLIGHTSTheoverallresidentialmarketconsolidatedsome-whatinQ32009afterthestrongreboundsincethebeginningof2009.Yetdrivenbyabundantliquidityandsanguinemarketoutlookagainstlimitedsup-ply,thehigh-endresidentialmarketshowedstellarperformance.AveragerentalinShanghai’shigh-endresidentialmarketheldsteadyinQ32009,underpinnedbyim-provementintheoveralleconomyaswellasrecoupofsomeend-userdemand,thoughvacancyrateroseslightlyduetoamplenewsupply.Thehigh-endresidentialmarketwillholdsteadyintherestof2009,asthe“moderatelyloose”mon-etarypolicy,coupledwithrecoveryoftheeconomyandrecoupininvestmentdemandwillprovidesupport.Leasingdemandforhigh-endresidentialproper-tiesisexpectedtorevivesomewhatalongwiththereturnofexpatriatesandalsoboostingeffectfromtheupcoming2010WorldExpo,thusrenderingsomesupporttorental.报告要点三季度，整体住宅市场在经历年初的强劲反弹后有所调整。然而受流动性宽裕，在供应有限情形下市场良好预期的驱动，高端住宅市场销售火爆。尽管新增供应增加使空置率小幅上升，但受整体经济有所改善以及住宅市场需求回暖影响，三季度上海高端住宅市场平均租金保持稳定。预计年底前，货币政策仍保持适度宽松，加之经济复苏以及投资需求的支持作用，上海高端住宅市场仍将保持平稳。伴随外籍人员的返回以及2010年世博会的利好因素，高端住宅租赁需求将有所回升，为租金提供一些支持。COLLIERSINTERNATIONAL2TheKnowledgeReport|ThirdQuarter|2009|High-EndResidentialFigure1Supply,Take-upandAveragePriceofShanghaiResidentialMarket图1上海住宅销售市场供应、需求及均价Source:ShanghaiRealEstateTransactionCenter数据来源:上海房地产交易中心0501001502002503002007.12007.22007.32007.42007.52007.62007.72007.82007.92007.102007.112007.122008.12008.22008.32008.42008.52008.62008.72008.82008.92008.102008.112008.122009.12009.22009.32009.42009.52009.62009.72009.810,000sqm02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000RMB/sqmNewSupplyᮄկᑨTake-up䳔∖AveragePrice៤ѸഛӋ3-MonthMovingAverageofPriceഛӋϝϾ᳜⿏ࡼᑇഛؐFigure2ShanghaiResidentialAveragePriceandSoldAreawithinInnerRingArea图2上海住宅市场内环内区域交易价格及面积统计Source:ShanghaiRealEstateTransactionCenter数据来源:上海房地产交易中心RMB/sqm051015202530354045Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-0910,000sqm05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000SoldArea(LH)䫔ଂ䴶⿃˄Ꮊ䕈˅AveragePrice(RH)䫔ଂഛӋ˄ে䕈˅3-monthMovingAverageofPrice(RHS)ഛӋϝϾ᳜⿏ࡼᑇഛؐFigure3NewSupply,Take-up&VacancyinShanghaiHigh-endResidentialLeasingMarket图3上海高端住宅租赁市场新增供应、新吸纳及空置率Source:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Research数据来源:上海高力国际研究部-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,2002005Q12005Q42006Q32007Q22008Q12008Q42009Q30%5%10%15%20%25%30%NewSupply(units)ᮄկᑨ(༫)Take-up(units)ǂᮄ਌㒇䞣(༫)VacancyRateぎ㕂⥛Figure4ShanghaiHigh-endResidentialRentalTrendbySub-sectors图4上海高端住宅不同物业类型的租金走势Source:ColliersInternationalShanghai(CIS)Research数据来源:上海高力国际研究部0501001502002503002005Q12005Q42006Q32007Q22008Q12008Q42009Q3RMB/sqm/mҎ⇥Ꮥᑇᮍ㉇᳜ServicedApartment᳡ࡵᓣ݀ᆧLuxuryApartment催ッ݀ᆧVilla߿๙HIGH-ENDRESIDENTIALLEASINGMARKETTheShanghaihigh-endresidentialleasingmarketstartedtostabilizeinQ32009afterthesharpercorrectioninH12009,notwithstandingtheincreaseinnewsupply.Atotalof855unitswerelaunchedintheleasingmarketinQ32009,includingRiverHouseinHuangpuandMansionDesArtistesinChangning.Onthedemandside,somedemandinthehigh-endresidentialleasingmar-kethascomebackowingtoseveralfavourablefactors.Firstly,someMNCsapparentlybegantore-hireexpatriates.ThishelpedtoarrestthedeclineinthenumberofexpatriatesinShanghaiandhencetheirleasingdemand.Secondly,theupcomingWorldExpo2010startedtostimulatedemandforhigh-endservicedapartmentsinthedowntownarea.Itisnotedthatthescarcityofsupplyofhigh-endservi