基于主成分分析和灰色预测方法的房地产预警体系研究

20086()No.6,2008103JOURNALOFHARBINUNIVERSITYOFCOMMERCESerialNo.103[]2008-09-25[](1968-),,,,,:[](2006F3007)[](,350108)[],,7,,,,,,[];;;[]F293.30[]A[]1671-7112(2008)06-0017-08AResearchonUrbanRealEstate-WarningwiththeMethodofPrincipalComponentandGreyPredictionYUKai(FujianUniversityofTechnology,Fuzhou350108,China)Abstract:Therealestateearly-warningisaveryimportantpartofmarco-controloftherealestate.Basedonthetheoryoftherealestate,takingFuzhouforexample,thispaperfirstlyselectssevencomplexrealestateindiceswhichcanreflecttherealestateearly-warning,andthendeterminetheweightofeverywiththemethodofprincipalcomponent.Secondly,accordingtothewarninglimit,wejudgethemonitoringresultsofthereales2tateindiceseveryyear.Ulteriorly,wemakesandempiricalanalysisofthedevelopmentofFuzhousrealestate,obtaintheearly-warningresults.Fi2nallyweadopttheGM(1,1)modeltopredictthefutureaboutFuzhousrealestateintwoyears,andwefinditstrendisSustainablethermal.Keywords:realestate;early-warning;principalcomponentmethod;greyprediction,,2003,,,2008,,,,,,,,,,,,,:(1),;(2),;(3)71©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.;(4),,:(),,;,,,,;,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,3(,),,,,,GM(1,1)1.,,,,,,,Zetland(2008)(REMI),,:,(DoM),(2007):(1),;(2),;(3),;(4),,(2003)20,5,,7,10,72.,,,:,,,,,,:,n,p,Xij=x11x12x1px21x22x2pMxn1xn2xnp,R=r11r12r1pr21r22r2pMrn1rn2rnp,:rij=1n-1ni=1xiixij,i,j=1,2,P|R-I|=0,nk(k=1,2,p)lk(k=1,2,p),81()20086JournalofHarbinUniversityofCommerceNo.6,2008©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,I1I2Ipk:k=kpi=1i-1k:f=ki=1ipi=1i-1:80%,1mA=(1,2,m),mL=(l1,l2,lm),F=AL=(f1,f2,fn),,3.:,,,,:::5,4,3,2,1,3,11-,-2-2,--,++,+2+2,+4.,,,(2008),ARFMA,,,GM(1,1)GM(1,1)(order),(variable),GM(1,1):x(0)=[x(0)(1),x(0)(2),,x(0)(n)],x(1)=[x(1)(1),x(1)(2),,x(1)(n)]:x(1)(k)=ki=1x(0)(i)(k=1,2,,n)x(1),GM(1,1):dx(1)dx+ax(1)=a,,a,a,a=(BTB)-1BTYN:B=-(x(1)(1)+x(1)(2))/21-(x(1)(2)+x(1)(3))/21-(x(1)(n-1)+x(1)(n))/21YN=x(0)(2)x(0)(3)x(0)(n),:x(1)(k+1)=(x(1)(1)-a)e-ak+a:x(1)(1)=x(0)(1),x(1)(k+1),:x(0)(k+1)=x(1)(k+1)-x(1)(k),,5%CP,GM(1,1):P0.95,C0.35,;P0.80,C0.50,;P0.70,C0.65,;P=0.70,C91:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=0.65,1998,,1997-2006,07081.,,(),,,1010:107,()7:D1=/,,,,,;,D2=,,,,D3=/,,,D4=[]/,,D5=D6=,,,D7=/,,1.05,722D1(%)D2(%)D3(%)D4D5(%)D6(%)D7(%)199721.655.220.193.06-37.0862.130.40199819.756.090.182.72-8.6236.730.64199922.2517.620.23.0218.8648.741.06200031.9127.610.212.8356.7713.780.83200134.3118.070.262.74-6.2620.460.99200233.0211.730.235.03101.0919.051.03200339.2567.100.314.985.7712.351.18200442.5033.930.315.03-42.5239.611.32200536.79-0.800.295.1410.73-4.240.95200641.1335.680.315.63-44.1626.241.482.27SPSS13.0343,F1F2,F1F24.1081.38102()20086JournalofHarbinUniversityofCommerceNo.6,2008©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,F1,D1D2D3D4D7,F1,D5D6F2,F2412D10.4740.000D20.3290.282D30.4750.107D40.416-0.117D5-0.037-0.769D6-0.2810.547D70.4340.070,:3F1=0.4743D1+0.3293D2+0.4753D3+0.4163D4+(-0.037)3D5+(-0.281)3D6+0.4343D7F2=0.0003D1+0.2823D2+0.1073D3+(-0.117)3D4+(-0.769)3D5+(0.547)3D6+0.0703D7F=0.586833F1+0.197243F2=0.2781623D1+0.2486893D2+0.2998533D3+0.221053D4+(-0.173383D5)+(-0.057053D6)+0.2684953D753.,7,SPSS13.0,65D1D2D3D4D5D6D70.2018120.1613110.2345130.1274470.0784090.0084790.1880286D1D2D3D4D5D6D71997-1.2706-0.8515-1.1086-0.7837-0.88991.7747-1.87051998-1.4982-0.8080-1.2965-1.0617-0.21520.4736-1.10701999-1.1987-0.2306-0.9207-0.81640.43631.08880.22902000-0.04150.2697-0.7328-0.96770.1496-0.7020-0.502620010.2461-0.20810.2067-1.0453-0.1593-0.35990.006420020.0915-0.5255-0.35700.82702.3857-0.43210.133620030.83792.24721.14620.78620.1259-0.77530.610820041.22720.58611.14620.8270-1.01890.62111.056120050.5432-1.15300.77040.91700.2435-1.6251-0.120920061.06310.67381.14621.3176-1.0578-0.06381.565112:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,:[-,-2],[-2,-1],[-1,1],[1,2],[2,+]19972006,77D1D2D3D4D5D6D71997199819992000200120022003200420052006,8H19972006(M):M=H3W(M,H,W),,:580%570%550%540%,,:[4,5,[3.5,4],[2.5,3.5],[2,2.5],[2,1],,98D1D2D3D4D5D6D719972323342199823223321999233334320003333333200133323332002333353320033543333200443432342005323332320064344234919971998199920002001200220032004200520062.38412.24822.80673.00002.87263.15683.55713.54592.83023.673422()20086JournalofHarbinUniversityofCommerceNo.6,2008©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,19971998,1999200020012002,200320042006,200519971998,,,1998,,,,,2002,20032004,2005,2005,,2006,4.GM(1,1)200720089GM(1,1),,:a=-0.039406=2.470267:x(k+1)=(x(1)(1)-a)e-ak+aa,x(1)(1)=x(0)(1)=2.3841,:x(1)(k+1)=65.07168e0.039406k-62.687586x(0)(k+1)=x(1)(k+1)-x(1)(k)20072008:3.7293.879C=0.0487p=1.0000Cp,,200720