戴德良行上海房地产研究

PropertyTimesAquarterlyoverviewofShanghai'sofficeandindustrialpropertyAutumn20022002ShanghaiContentsOfficeMarketVacancy2Rental/Price3MarketOverview13ForecastIndustrialMarket6Overview4Forecast1OfficeMarketMarketOverviewrdShanghai'sGDPatthebeginningofthe3quarterreachedarecordRMB252billion,representinga10%increaseoverthesameperiodlastyear,andbyfarthelargestofanycityinMainlandChina.LargelyduetoChina'srecentaccessiontotheWTO,ShanghaihasattractedmorethanUS$6billionincontractedforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)asoftheendofJuly,growing32%overthesameperiodlastyear.Pointingtothelikelycontinuationofthistrend,arecentsurveyofmultinationalsbyA.T.KearneyshowsChinaovertakingtheU.S.asthemostattractivedestinationofforeigninvestment.AllofthisbodeswellfortheShanghai'sinvestmentenvironment,especiallyastheeconomicoutlookintheUnitedStatesandotherpartsoftheworldremainsuncertainwithmanyanalystsnowdiscountinganychanceforarapidrecoveryfromlastyear'srecessionrdTheShanghaiGradeAOfficeMarketcontinuedtogrowinthe3quarterof2002,althoughlosingmuchofthemomentumvisibleinthelastquarter.Overalltake-upinthecitymeasuredonly39,550sqmthisquarter,whilevacancylevelsedgedlowerto12.4%from12.6%lastquarter.Duetotheslowdownindemandandcontinuedabsorptionofrecentlyintroducedsupplyinthemarket,primeofficerentalsmovedlower,down2.9%toUS$0.61/sqm/day.DemandrdWhiledemandinShanghairemainedbuoyantinthe3quarterof2002,itwasnowherenearlevelsrecordedoverthepreviousthreemonths.Fortheperiod,take-uptotaledonly39,550sqm,downsharplyfromlastquarter's199,232sqm.Largelyattributedtotheglobaleconomicslowdown,butalsoinpartduetosummerholidays,demandforgradeAspacewasrelativelylow,asmostcompaniesdelayedtheirofficeexpansion/relocationuntillate2002.0.30.20.10.099000102ShanghaiTake-upSource:DTZ(Shanghai)ResearchShanghaiOfficeAvailability0.60.40.20.099000102Source:DTZ(Shanghai)Research0.81.0MillionssqmMillionssqmSupplyrdNewsupplyinthe3quarter2002waslimitedtoCityCenterTowerAinHongqiao.Theprojectadds44,000sqmofGradeAofficespacetothedistrictandincreasesShanghai'stotalstockofGradeAofficespaceto3.18millionsqm.rdVacancylevelsinthe3quarter2002remainedstableasmoderatetake-upwasoffsetbynewsupplyinthemarket.Thecity-widevacancyrateedgedslightlylowerto12.4%from12.6%lastquarter.ThePuxivacancyraterosefrom12.7%to12.8%whileinPudong,theaveragevacancyratecontinuedtodropfrom12.1%to11.5%.WiththeexceptionofChangning,mostdistrictsexperiencedsomedeclineinvacancylevels,mostnotablyJinganandHuangpudistricts,whichcontinuetobenefitfromstrongtake-upinnewprojectsintroducedearlierintheyear.AveragevacancylevelsinHuangpuandJing`andistrictsfellfrom18%to15.4%andfrom9.0%to7.4%,respectively,asoftheendoftherd3quarter.VacancyCompanyAreaOccupied(sqm)()BuildingGEMedicalAmericanExpressAlteraSuntoryYamahaAkzoNobel5601,0563341,9001,6002,800MaxdoCentreBundCenterBankofChinaTowerOceanTowersUnitedPlazaUnitedPlazaSelectedOfficeLeasingTransactionsin3Q2Source:DTZ(Shanghai)IndustrialRentalTrendsinPuxiandPudong0.00.51.01.52.02.5919293949596979899000102AverageRentinPuxiAverageRentinPudongSource:DTZ(Shanghai)ResearchRental/PricerdRentalsaroundShanghaidroppedslightlyinthe3quarter.TheaverageaskingrentalforShanghaifell2.9%toUS$0.61/sqm/dayfromUS$0.63/sqm/daylastquarter.InPuxi,theaverageaskingrentaldroppedtoUS$0.58/sqm/dayintherd3quarterfromUS$0.59/sqm/day,whileinPudong,afterthreesuccessivequartersofincreasingrentals,theaveragerentfellfromUS$0.74/sqm/daytoUS$0.71/sqm/day.Thesedeclinesweremirroredinmostdistricts.InJingan,Luwan,andHuangpudistricts,averagerentalsalledgedlowertoUS$0.68/sqm/day,US$0.65/sqm/day,andUS$0.53/sqm/dayby1%,1%,and4.1%respectively.Inmostdistricts,itisolderandlowerqualityprojectsthathavesufferedthemostfromtheinfluxofnewsupplyinthepastfewquartersascompaniesseektoupgradetheirofficespaceinnewerandhigherqualityprojectsavailableinthemarket.Whilerentalsinmanyofthoseprojectshavedeclinedinrecentquarters,rentalsintop-gradeprojectsremainedlargelystablerdinthe3quarter,whilesomeevenincreasedslightly.Plaza66,Puxi'stallestofficetower,raiseditsaskingrentalsafterachieving100%occupancyinthemiddleofthequarter.rdSalesofGradeAofficespaceinShanghaiduringthe3quarterwerelimited,withtheaveragesalespricedroppingmoderatelyfromUS$2,542/sqminthelastquartertoUS$2,459/sqm.Withacombinationofmorethan200,000sqmofnewsupplycomingonthemarketinlate2002andearly2003,renewedexpansionactivityamongstmultinationals,andahealthylocaleconomicenvironment,theofficemarketisforecastedtoremainstableinthenearterm.Rentals,whileshowingsomerddeclineinthe3quarter,havebeeninlinewithourownforecastsreflectingthewaveofnewsupplyintroducedinthemarketearlierintheyear.Amongthenewprojectsscheduledforcompletioninlate2002andearly2003aretheNewWorldToweronHuaiHaiMiddleRoad,thePudongDevelopmentMansioninLujiazuiandtheHaitongSecuritiesTowerandJinfanBuilding,botharoundPeople'sSquare.Basedonrecenttrendsofsupply-drivendemandinShanghai,take-upisexpectedtoincreasewhilerentallevelsremainstableinthenearfuture.Forecast3USD/sqm/dayNewIndustrialPremisesSupply35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000CaohejingFen