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“FromtheMinerstoMajor:ALeagueofChangeinRecentBritishPolitics.”JeremyLewisPhD,HuntingdonCollege,ForpresentationsatBuenaVistaUniversity,Iowa,11-12Sep.2005See•Thewhizkidwhosefastriseupthegreasypole•culminatedinaslipperyslidedownwards•economicstagflationandlowapprovalratings•unabletopreventbickering,scandalandpolicydrift•echoesofChurchill’s“modest”depictionofAtlee•[cartoon]MajorasMr.Underpants,thespindlysuperhero.PMasMr.Underpantsuntil,thatis,EdwinaCurrie’srevelationsin2002.NowSirJohnMajorseenas•thecreatorofNorthernIrelandpeaceagreement•thewarriorofthe1991GulfWar•theinternationalstatesmanandpeacenegotiator•thelastsuccessfulConservativepartyleader•returnedapartytothemoderate“insideright”electorateMajorinthecontextofBritishPolitics•PMQTshowsintegrationoflegislatureandexecutive–CommonscultureofOxfordUniondebating–PMconfrontedbyMPs–articulateministers,wellinformed&gladiatorial–patronagepoweroftheprimeminister–cabinetandshadowcabinet:loyalOpposition–frontbench(ministers)versusbackbench(MPs)–Multi-partysystemwithcross-benchers:•FirstPastthePostsystemfavorsCon&Lab,disfavorsLibDemsUncodifiedConstitution•doctrineofparliamentarysovereignty–nosupremecourt,noconstitutionalreview•flexibletermsofofficeandvotesofnoconfidence•cabinet’scollectiveresponsibility:“governmentare”•ministerialresponsibility&resignation•riseofPMandstaff,publicrelations•embourgeoisement:declineofclass-basedpoliticspostwarwelfarestateconsensus:•equalityoverindividualism•fullemploymentoverproductivity•“fairsharesforall”•“nojumpingthequeue”•“homesfitforheroes”•“Butskellism”(Butler&Gaitskell)•“corporatism”(tripartiteeconomicdiscussions)1960sand1970s,consensusdeclined•Labour&Conservativegovernments•economicdeterioration•wintersofdiscontent1974and1979•“bloody-minded”unions&“outoftouch”management•MinersbroughtdownHeathTorygovernment,1974Thatcherismrevolution:•taxcuts:largersharesforsome•propertyholdingdemocracy:sharesforall•marketforcesinallinstitutions:scrambletoheadthequeue•Privatizationof11%ofeconomy•Brokeminer’sunion1984•Over20%shareholders•Councilhousesales•Self-budgetinguniversitiesandhospitalsPublicOpinion:•nowmorepolarized•mostlyfavorspostwarconsensus(I.Crewe)•by1990,only17%ofToryMPsactuallyThatcherite(P.Norton)Understatedleadersandwichedbetweentwoprimadonnas•notanOxfordUniondebater•Citizen’sCharteraminorreform•Thatcher’sbudgetcuts,privatization,supplysiderevolution•Blair’sThirdWayreformsJohnRoyMajor’searlylife,1943-•untypicalBritishleader•name“Roy”notevenonbirthcertificate•sonoftravelingcircusperformer,TomMajor-Ball–Latediscoveryofhalf-siblings•impoverishedbyunemployment•rejectedasbusconductor•madegardengnomeswithbrotherTerry•notuppermiddleclass--freeschooluniform•notEton–justgrammarschool•notOxford–notevenuniversity(J.Callaghan)EarlyCareer:•Banker1965-1979:verysuccessful•MarriedNorma1970,twochildrenMajor’sclimbupthegreasypole(Disraeli)•Spring1991,mostpopularPMin30years•PrimeMinister1990-97•LeaderoftheConservativeParty1990-97–OverMichael(“Tarzan”)HeseltineandDouglasHurd(diplomatic)•ChancelloroftheExchequer1989-90–firstTVbudgetspeech,TESSAs–UKjoinedERM,1990•ForeignSecretary1989–ChiefSecretarytotheTreasury1987-89•MinisterofStateforSocialSecurity1986•Under-SecforSocialSecurity(welfare&OAPs)1985•TreasuryWhip1984•AssistantWhip1983•ParliamentaryPrivateSec.1981•MPforHuntingdon(1976)1979,1983,1992,1997.•Lambethboroughcouncil1968-71,createdhousing•SoapboxspeechesinLambeth,1964-68.Conservativepartyfactions•Leadershipelectionspost1965amongMPs•1922Committee(revoltsinprivate)•Thatcheritefree-marketinsurgents(“dries”)17%only•aristocraticHighToriesdeclining(tradcons)•“Hang‘emandflog‘em”brigadeinshires•One-Nationmoderateslargergroup(“wets”)•droppingleadersafterlostelections•allincludedincabinetsexcept1984-87MajorasConservativePrimeMinister,1990-97•Moreinclusive,genteelstyle•Moderatesbacktocabinet•Only47onaccession•EarlysuccesswithGulfwar,1991–Recordpopularity•AbolishedpolltaxwhichhadbroughtdownThatcherUnpromisingre-electionprospects•longestrecessionsince1930s•consumerunconfidence1990,Toriesdrooped•Tories30%1990,Lab53%•voterspolarizedbyMrs.Thatcher•ShortbouncesfromMajor’saccessionandGulfWarEconomicpolicyU-turn•MajoreasedinterestratesOct1990•LamontincreasedPSBR(unThatcherite)Won1992electionbyupset•PollspredictedhungParliament•NeilKinnock’swelshoratory•Labour’sslickAmerican-stylecampaigning•Major’sLambethsoap-boxspeechifying•Major’smaninthestreetstyle.Won1992electionbyupset•voterslied–oropinionpollsskewed?•LatedecidersTory•“besttocontroleconomy”swingtoTory•Toriesreturnedwithsmallmajority•Lostonly41seats,retained43%ofvoteEconomicdifficulties•Stagflation1992-93•BlackWednesday,16Sep.1992,ERMwithdrawalStatesmanship•Europeanengagement:–EU’sMaastrichtTreaty1992,despite–Tory“bastard”euroscepticrebels(Lilley,Portillo&Howard)–LabourtacticalforcedvotedefeatonEUSocialChapter–Majorforcedvoteofnoconfidence,wonby40–OptedoutofEurocurrency,protectedBritisheconomyNorthernIreland•Irishpeacetal