XXXX年一季度北京住宅物业市场报告_高力国际

BeijingResidentialPropertyMarket北京住宅物业市场collieRsinteRnational|Beijingwww.colliers.com/chinaRentsincreasedonq-o-qbasisforthefirsttimesince4Q08,capitalvaluescontinuedtosoarin1Q10.PRoPeRtytyPe|FiRstQuaRteR|2007econoMicindicatoRs经济指标growthtrendschinagdP*BeijinggdP*Fai*utilisedFdi**BeijingcPi*BankRate*overallResidentialsalesVolume*11.9%14.9%34.3%2.8%0.9%5.4%-0.07%MaRketPeRFoRMance市场表现RentsVacancy★MaRketoVeRVieW市场概览Despitemosteconomicindicatorspointingnorth,theoverallluxuryresidentialsalesmarketwashalted,especiallyinJanuaryandFebruary2010,astheresultoflimitednewsupplyavailableonthemarketandgovernmentcontrolpoliciesonthenationalrealestatemarketclampingdownonrequirementsforlendingandhousepurchasingbyoverseasindividuals.Ontheotherhand,leasingdemandforBeijing’sluxurypropertiesroseonthebackofincreasingemploymentheadcountamongmanyforeignanddomesticcompaniesamidanoptimisticbusinessoutlook.Asaconsequence,theoverallaveragerentalregisteredapositiveq-o-qgrowthforthefirsttimesince4Q08,whiletheoverallvacancyratedipped.尽管大部分经济指标示好，但受一系列因素，如市场新增供应有限、政府收紧信贷和外籍人士购买住宅物业条件等房地产市场宏观调控政策影响，北京豪华住宅市场在季内表现停滞，尤以开年首两月为甚。另一方面，许多外资和内资企业在乐观业务前景展望下，开始增派人力资源，本季北京豪华住宅租赁需求因此而得以激发且呈现增长。受此影响，北京豪华住宅物业的整体空置率下降，平均租金亦录得自2008年第四季度以来的首次环比增长。Onlytwonewluxuryprojects-GeminiGroveintheLufthansaandChaoyangParksubmarketandThePurplePalaceintheFinancialStreetsubmarket-werecompletedinthisquarter,addingatotalof465unitstotheluxuryresidentialsector.Asofend-1Q10,thetotalstockofluxuryresidentialpropertiesexpandedto58,223units,up0.81%q-o-q.Onthesalesfront,thesupplyofnewluxuryresidentialprojectswastightenedinthelocalmarket,althoughChang’anAve.(formerlyknownasThePremier),onceafinanciallystrappedluxuryapartmentdevelopmentintheCBDsubmarket,launcheditspre-salesinMarch2010.季内，北京豪华住宅物业市场仅有两个新豪华项目竣工入住，其分别系位于燕莎朝阳公园区域的星源汇和金融街区域的紫御府，为市场添加新增供应共计465套。截至2010年一季度末，北京豪华住宅市场总存量扩大至58,223套，环比增长0.81%。销售方面，本季豪华住宅市场新增供应紧缺，但CBD区内曾受财务困扰的豪华公寓项目长安8号(之前命名为擎峰)，在今年三月份开始推盘预售。suPPly供应outlook展望supplyVacancyRentscapitalValuesoverallluxuryapartmentsservicedapartmentsVillasResidentialPRoPeRty|FiRstQuaRteR|2010*********actualratesource:BeijingstatisticsBureau,PBocdataasofend-1Q10dataasofend-February10collieRsinteRnational2TheKnowledgeReport|FirstQuarter|2010|BeijingResidentialPropertyUnderpinnedbyacceleratingeconomicgrowthandgrowingbusinessconfidenceinthelocality,leasingdemandforBeijing’sluxurypropertiescontinuedtorisein1Q10.MNCs,suchasNokia,increasedexpatriatestaff,atbothseniormanagementlevelandbasiclevel,foritsbusinessexpansioninBeijing.Consequently,netabsorptionoftheoverallluxuryresidentialmarketincreasedto1,440units,with21,1,136and283unitsinthevilla,luxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentsectors,respectively.Atthesametime,theoverallvacancyratefellto25.42%asatend-1Q10,down6.38percentagepointsy-o-y.Breakingthisdownbysectors,vacancyratesofvilla,luxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentdecreasedby0.15,2.26and3.26percentagepointsq-o-q,to29.71%,24.11%and23.61%asofend-1Q10,respectively.由于本地经济加速发展和市场商业信心回升的支撑，北京豪华住宅物业的租赁需求继续在本季呈现增长。一些跨国公司，如诺基亚，已经增加包括高级管理层和基础层面的外派人员，以期扩展其在京业务。因此，北京整体豪华住宅市场总净吸呐量上升至1,440套，其中别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓，分别录得21套、1,136套和283套。同期，北京整体豪华住宅市场空置率亦降至25.42%，同比下跌6.38个百分点。具体分析而言，别墅、豪华公寓和服务式公寓之空置率分别下滑到29.71%、24.11%和23.61%，环比下降0.15、2.26和3.26个百分点。deMand需求Withmorecautiousoptimismsprevailinginthelocalleasingmarket,mostlandlordsfirmlyheldorraisedrentalsonthebackofgrowingpropertyoccupancyratesanddemandsize.Asaresult,theoverallaveragerentofluxuryresidentialpropertiesrosetoRMB134.07psmpermonth,up1.81%q-o-q,butstilldown2.94%y-o-yasofend-1Q10.Bysectors,rentalinvilla,luxuryapartmentandservicedapartmentincreasedtoRMB96.80psmpermonth,RMB131.68psmpermonthandRMB164.79psmpermonth,up1.71%,1.84%,1.87%q-o-q,respectively.随着本地租赁市场洋溢更多审慎乐观情绪，大部分业主在逐渐提升的入住率和需求增加的背景下，坚守或上调租金价格。因此，本季北京豪华住宅市场整体租金环比上升1.81%至每月每平方米134.07元，但同比仍下降2.94%。按市场分，别墅、豪华公寓、服务式公寓市场的平均租金增长至每月每平方米人民币96.80元、131.68元、164.79元，环比分别上升1.71%、1.84%、1.87%。Rents租金Figure3NewSupply&NetAbsorptionofBeijingLuxuryResidentialMarket图3北京豪华住宅市场新增供应和净吸纳量Figure4RentsofBeijingLuxuryResidentialMarketbySector图4北京豪华住宅市场各物业类型租金Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部Figure1OverallSupplyandDemandofBeijingLuxuryResidentialMarket图1北京豪华住宅市场整体供应与需求Figure2StockofBeijingLuxuryResidentialMarketbySector图2北京豪华住宅市场各物业类型存量Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部contactinFoRMationthisreportandotherresearchmaterialsmaybefoundonourwebsiteatwww.colliers.com.QuestionsrelatedtoinformationhereinshouldbedirectedtotheResearch&advisorydepartmentatthenumberindicatedabove.thisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbycolliersinternationalforadvertisingandgeneralinformationonly.colliersinternationalmakesnoguarantees,representationsorwarrantiesofanykind,expressedorimplied,regardingtheinformationincluding,butnotlimitedto,warrantiesofcontent,accuracyandreliability.anyinterestedpartyshouldundertaketheirowninquiriesastotheaccuracyoftheinformation.col