日本股市与房地产泡沫起源

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,;,,,,(bubbles)(tulipmania,16361637)(Mississippibubbles,17191720),(SouthSeabubbles,17191720)(railwaymania,18461847)(greatdepression,19291938),,,,Kindleberger(1978),,208090,,,,,,90,;,,;,,,:,19861219912,,,,,31800233:3758194-0294:[e-mail];:100732:[e-mail],©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1980),,,,,(FrenchandPoterba,1991;Ueda,1990)(Ito,1993;Nishimura,1990),,,,(enthusiasm),(Shiratsuka,2003)(landmyth),(,1999),,,,,Okina(2001),,,BernankeGertler(1999),,1988,4%8%,(2004),,,MiyagawaMorita(2005)(BOJ),,,(2006),,?,Grimes(2001),,,,,(2000,),(),GNP()4180023CrashesItoIwaisako(1995),19871989,19891990Morinobu(2006)Okina(2001)(2004)(),(2002)(2003)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,(2000,),,,,(2002),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2002,),:,,,,:(1),,;(2)(SirriandTufano,1995),;(3)(BootandThakor,1997);(4),(RajanandZingales,1999),,,,,(AllenandGale,1997),,,,,,,,5180023©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,OECD(R&D),(RDIP)12:1R&D(19872001)2R&D(19872001):OECD:OECD12,R&D(),R&D,208090,,,,,,,,,207019831985,,,,,19851985200,1990410;502401985340,5900(1)6180023R&D(R&Dintensityusingproduction,RDIP):RDIPki=ANBERDkiPRODki100,ANBERD,PROD,1985(10),1978(,2000,)19857,19862(TB),12,198711(CP)(,2003,)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,%1980198519909958.91985841045.24124.7511524026.45734.21474317118.86941.11434249854.84526.94613.6667.3(CD)2414.19728.318920.8(CP)----15817.3(FB)00.100.1101.1(TB)----768.4168100341100909100:(2003,)1,,,,,,,(1/4),,,,,,,,,,-,,,,,,701973,,,1980,,803:,,19846,1,,,3,2080,,,7180023(2006,)(2003,)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,70%(,2002),,,,;,,,,,2080,5060705070,,80,,,,,2080,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;(,2006,),,,81800232050,40(),70(,2002),,,,,,(,2002),,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,?,?,,,?,,,,48%,46%,90%,50%,,(,1989,),,,,,,,,()(1992,),,,(,2001,),(),,,1970,,2080,,(80),2.3,,,,,,,(,1994,),,,,205070,,()91800232001,,,5,2080,,(,2000)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,:(1),;(2);(3),,,;(4),;(5),,,,,,,,1995,,(Grimes,2001),,,,(),,2080,,1987:,,(,1989,),,,,,,,1987,,,,,1987,1988,(Grimes,2001)(),,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,(),,011800232001©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,3800,14,17,,,,,,,,110,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,(,2004,),,,:,(2002):(),(2000):(),(1992):(),(2002):,5(2004):(),(2000):(),(2006):()(),(2000):,(2003):(),11180023(1996)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2006)::(),(1994):(),(1989):(),(2007):,4(2003):2,(2004):,67(1996):,(2006)::,1(1999):,2(2002):,(2002):,1Allen,F.andGale,D.FinancialMarkets,IntermediariesandInter-temporalSmoothing.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1997,105,pp.523-546.Bernanke,BenS.andGertler,Mark.MonetaryPolicyandAssetPriceVolatility.InAchievingPriceStability,FederalReserveBankofKan2sasCity,1999,pp.77-128.Blanchard,O.andWatson,M.W.Bubbles,RationalExpectationsandFinancialMarkets,inP.Wachtel,ed.,CrisisintheEconomicandFinancialStructure,LexingtonBooks,1982.Boot,A.andThakor,A.FinancialSystemArchitecture.ReviewofFinancialStudies,1997,10,pp.693-733.Flood,R.P.andGarber,P.M.MarketFundamentalsVersusPrice-levelBubbles:TheFirstTest.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,August1980,88(4),pp.745-70.French,KennethandPoterba,James.WereJapaneseStockPricestooHigh?JournalofFinancialEconomics,1991,Vol.29,pp.23-50.Grimes,WilliamW.UnmakingtheJapaneseMiracle:MacroeconomicPolitics,1985-2000,NewYork:CornellUniversityPress,2001.Ito,TakatoshiandIwaisako,Tokuo.ExplainingAssetBubblesinJapan.NBERWorkingPaper5358.November1995.Ito,Takatoshi.TheLand/HousingProbleminJapan:AMacroeconomicApproach.JournaloftheJapaneseandInternationalEconomies,January1993.Kindleberger,C.P.Manias,PanicsandCrashes:AHistoryofFinancialCrises,NewYork:BasicBooks,1978.Miyagawa,ShigeyoshiandMorita,Yoji.LessonsfromJapansProlongedRecession.DepartmentofEconomicsandAccounting,UniversityofTampere,Finland,Workingpaper44,September2005.Morinobu,Shigeki.TheRiseandFalloftheLandMythinJapan:SomeImplicationtotheChineseLandTaxation.PRIDiscussionPaperSeries,No.06A-08,March2006.Nishimura,KiyohikoG.TheMechanismofLandPriceDeterminationinJapan,inC.NishimuraandY.Miwa,eds.,JapanceseAtockandLandPrices,Tokyo:TheUniversityofTokyoPress.1990.Okina,K.;Shirakawa,M.andShiratsuka,S.TheAssetPriceBubbleandMonetaryPolicy:JapansExperienceintheLate1980sandtheLessons.MonetaryandEconomicStudies(SpecialEdition),February2001.Rajan,R.andZingales,L.TheFirmasaDedicatedHierarchy:ATheoryoftheOriginandGrowthofFirms.UniversityofChicagowork2ingpaper,1999.Shiratsuka,Shigenori.TheAssetPriceBubbleinJapaninthe1980s:Les