中集集团财务分析及股票价值评估研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文中集集团财务分析及股票价值评估研究姓名：叶知民申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：夏新平20080428I200572832007115301020061034.85200710251.325IIAbstractSeptember28th2005thestocks’valueinShenzhenandShanghaistockmarketreached3000billion,ittillNovember11th2007,withtheSinopec’scomingintothemarket,reached30trillionwhichmeans10timesasmuchasitwastwoandhalfyearsago.ThenewlyopenedaccountsinOctober2006is348500,howevertotalaccountsvolumehikedto0.13billion.That’sa24timesrisewithinayear.Expandingstockmarketmaturesincreasinglyandunfitstheblindinvestmentsandhearsayguidedoperations.Thethesisisbasedonthetheoriesofenterprisevalueandactualisticrequirements,lucubratestheindustrialfield,periodandprospectoftherepresentativeenterprise--CIMCandqualitativelyquantitativelyevaluatesthePerspectivessuchasoperatingenvironmentfinancialpositionandvaluedrivenfactorswiththeforecastofthefuturecashflowandanalysisofcorecompetitivestrengths.ForthesakeofexploringasimpleandexercisableinvestmentwayfitsChinesesituation,thethesisusesanevaluatingmethodincludingratioestimatesandabsolutevalueestimateswhichsupposedbybusinesscycleandcompetitivestrengthsofprofitpurchasing,growth,capableofpayingoffandcapitaloperationestimatestheconnectionbetweeninherencevalueandextrinsicprice.KeyWords:FinancialanalysisOperationenvironmentStockvalueCIMC□□“√”111.12005728320064545200719108320115301021.09150%20061034.8520071325.7710251.325[1]1.2()[2][34]1.31-131-1422.119801199420072000147550215002820079CIMC1996342221920529.9%421500020002000019902005A3802.22.2.1200720074.73.8%11.423.5%2007Clarkson200720071.3111%4.65TEU10%2007141TEU20071.127620.4%20072007390TEUWorldCargoNews25%20075506202.2.22007103110155520%30%15%7CNGCNG2.7%20105.3%202010%36.84502.32.3.120078“”2007487.6131.6545.24%12.22%2-12-2137.44%42.61%23470%20%9%1%2-12007TheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.971%13%13%3%2-22007TheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.2.3.21996CIMC250TEU4001524104922194S20193710002.3.310%12007340.4937.44%210TEU186.6TEU37%7.361139%[TankPallet]5.87791.7%22.5%30.530%500TEU29TEU20.5%12.0%2-32-3TheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.20071015050012TEU303297.2468.1942.61%112136/26.89%5420074S114S134S020406080100120200320042005200620070%5%10%15%20%()2-42003-2007345.3618.47145.62%71013.493.3720076——52280%2007742.18%CNGCNGLNGLNGLNGLCNG——144200720074.73167.67%51.6616.90%2.3.4911CAE2007200756094365199252007LNG200710152.3.51BurgIndustriesB.V.()2007626CIMCBurgB.V.108308708(825139062)100%100%111543045(849628815)3234337(24489753)1937CIMCBurgB.V.2()2007730CharmWiseLimited1128961760(1444128331094076842)19070300042.18%690000041.55%144291628(1094076842)101541.55%52299000(393042674)92113833(701034168)20049(3899)CharmWiseLimited3——60%1660%2-185.22.62.38.92.41.1BurgIndustriesB.V13.00.10.21733.13.1.112007183%72%63%2700020.1315.2664.74.460%320070.34420085712.513.323.816.5183.1.212008—200911%Drewry20082007200820082008LNGLNG2015LNG3000—50001995LNG7.5%LNG2/3192008220320085712.5013.3023.8016.54200820083-12007200734048909.3%31699531.4%97240011%10774237.1%45360015%68584146.0%4730033%15647167.2%487610010.1%49004845.2%213-220082008E323464611.0%355811-5.0%121550011%13370525.0%68040016%10886450.0%6149032%1967730.0%519203611.3%6180573.6%3-320092009E355811011.0%39139210%145860012%17503220%88452017%15036830%7993730%2398130%598116712.4%74077415.2%3-4200620072008E2009E2010E15125243672611329916334662017305450515818651722592420020120220575875887397751818900908910471117274961147101011641303472877158062917610263223-42273186819432214247690671602517526189881828264691391391391346446342111611284112330136023602124191217212417641033293323331824192403924364048904517491015317135187202141021129941269762607466573438536980671976478553261530448510570509869285293578862729705715548054805480726446244624462446224412521018101810181112322850242002689026609221926622662266226621617355335533553355383859698114621385716764848162917611941216012220159141767820073229802419240392436404890451749233-5200620072008E2009E2010E335744876150507581836516528817438044479150977570193156515865100811531263145516891097159816671920215060372744803674-2216300002751113891466800100012003169345727933971482736605050501817202020318735002823400148572031751694004862984332626533601437116416013318021928213165252134214153EPS()1.271.190.951.281.563.2(l)(2)(3)3.2.124[3]13-1=-3-123-2=3-23.2.213-3=-3-3[4]3253-4-=3-43.2.3(ROE)(ROA)(EPS)[5]EPS1(ROE)ROE3-5()ROE=3-52(EPS)EPS3-6()EPS=3-6EPS[6]3(ROA)263-7=3-7[7]3.2.4200620072008200920103-63-6/200620072008E2009E2010E14.2%10.2%11.3%12.4%12.5%8.4%6.5%5.0%5.9%6.4%8%45%4%15%12%15%12%-20%36%21%(1)(ROE)23.1%19.9%14.3%17.0%18.1%(2)(EPS)1.271.190.951.281.56(3)(ROA)12.338.236.077.368.45273-13-2280.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%2006200720082009201000.511.52ROEEPS3-320072007200820083.33.3.1[9]13-8=3-82923-9-=3-9[10]1[13]33-10=3-1043-11=3-113.3.213-12=3-123070%[15]23-13-=3-13[13]3.3.3200620072008200920103-73-7200620072008200920101.51.41.41.41.61.01.01.01.01.151.409.413.794.987.021.491.421.391.401.5846.0%56.6%55.5%55.0%51.4%97.6%59.3%64.3%67.5%79.9%313-43-5321073.43.4.113-14=