财务分析与证券定价(英文)chapter5

Chapter5AccountingMeasurementandValuationfromEarningsForecastsAccountingMeasurementandValuationfromEarningsForecastsChapter4examinedvaluationsfromforecastsofdividendsandcashflowsLinktoPreviousChapterLINKSThischapterexaminesvaluationsbasedonforecastsofearnings.ItalsoshowshowearningsarecalculatedtomeasurevalueaddedinoperationsThisChapterChapter6willpresentavaluationmodelthatcombinesearningsforecastswithbookvaluesLinktoNextChapterLinktoWebPageHowareearningsmeasured?Howdoearningsdifferfromfreecashflows?Howisthebalancesheetmeasured?Whatisthedifferencebetweenearningsandstockreturns?Whatisthedifferencebetweenaccountingratesofreturnandstockratesofreturn?Canearningsforecastsbeusedtovaluefirms?Whatyouwilllearninthischapter•Theprinciplesofaccountingmeasurement•Thedifferencebetweenearningsandcashflowfromoperations•Howaccrualsandtheaccountingforinvestmentaffecttheincomestatementandthebalancesheet•Theconceptofcomprehensiveincomeanditsimportanceforvaluation•Therelationshipbetweenearningsandstockreturns•Whystockratesofreturnandaccountingratesofreturndiffer•Whyvaluationsbasedonforecastingearningscanbeinerror•Howmultiyearearningspayoffsarecalculated•Howearningsyieldscreenswork,ordon’tworkTheIncomeStatement:Genentech,IncCONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFINCOME(thousands,exceptpershareamounts)YEARENDEDDECEMBER31199519941993__________________________________________________________________________________RevenuesProductsales$635,263$601,064$457,360Royalties(includingamountsfromrelatedparties:1995-$12,492;1994-$8,454;1993-$5,488)190,811126,022112,872Contractandother(includingamountsfromrelatedparties:1995-$13,448;1994-$17,106;1993-$8,869)31,20925,55637,957Interest60,56242,74841,560_____________________________________Totalrevenues917,845795,390649,749CostsandexpensesCostofsales97,93095,82970,514Researchanddevelopment(includingcontractrelated:1995-$17,124;1994-$7,584;1993-$4,235)363,049314,322299,396Marketing,generalandadministrative251,653248,604214,410Specialcharge(primarilymergerrelated)25,000----Interest7,9407,0586,527____________________________________Totalcostsandexpenses745,572665,813590,847Incomebeforetaxes172,273129,57758,902Incometaxprovision25,8415,183--____________________________________Netincome$146,432$124,394$58,902====================================Netincomepershare$1.21$1.04$.50====================================Weightedaveragenumberofsharesusedincomputingpershareamounts121,220119,465117,106====================================TheIncomeStatement:CadburySchweppesFeaturesoftheIncomeStatement1.Dividendsdon’taffectincome2.Investmentdoesn’taffectincome3.ThereisamatchingofValueadded(revenues)Valuelost(expenses)Netvalueadded(netincome)4.AccrualsadjustcashflowsRevenueAccrualsExpenseAccrualsValueaddedthatisnotcashflowAdjustmentstocashinflowsthatarenotvalueaddedValuedecreasesthatarenotcashflowsAdjustmentstocashoutflowsthatarenotvaluedecreasesTheRevenueCalculationRevenue=Cashreceiptsfromsales+NewsalesoncreditCashreceivedforpreviousperiods'salesEstimatesofcreditsalesnotcollectibleEstimatedsalesreturnsDeferredrevenueforcashreceivedinadvanceofsale+Revenuepreviouslydeferred.TheExpenseCalculationExpense=Cashpaidforexpenses+AmountsincurredingeneratingrevenuesbutnotyetpaidCashpaidforgeneratingrevenuesinfutureperiods+Amountspaidinthepastforgeneratingrevenuesinthecurrentperiod.EarningsandCashFlowsEarnings=[C-I]-i+I+accruals=C-i+accrualsTheearningscalculationaddsbackinvestmentsandputsthembackinthebalancesheet.Italsoaddsaccruals.EarningsandCashFlows:Wal-MartStores____________________________________________________________________________Wal-MartStores,Inc.198819891990199119921993199419951996Cashfromoperations5368289681,4221,5531,5402,5733,4102,993Cashinvestments6275418941,5262,1503,5064,4863,7923,332Freecashflow(91)28774(104)(597)(1,966)(1,913)(382)(339)Netincome6288371,0761,2911,6081,9952,3332,6812,740Eps.28.37.48.57.70.871.021.171.19Accruals,InvestmentsandtheBalanceSheetAccrualsandinvestmentsareputinthebalancesheetShareholders’equity=Cash+OtherAssets-LiabilitiesEarningsCashfromOperationsAccrualsFreecashflowCashfromOperationsInvestmentsUpdatingtheBalanceSheetCashfromoperations+AccrualsEarningsIncomeStatement1998InvestmentanddisinvestmentbyownersEarningsNetchangeinowners’equityStatementofShareholders’Equity1998Cash1+OtherAssets1TotalAssets1-Liabilities1Owners’equity1BalanceSheetYear1CashfromoperationsCashfrominvestingDebtfinancingEquityfinancingNetchangeincashCashFlowStatementYear1Cash0+OtherAssets0TotalAssets0-Liabilities0Owners’equity0BalanceSheetYear0BeginningStocksFlowsEndingStocksTheBalanceSheet:GenentechCONSOLIDATEDBALANCESHEETS(dollarsinthousands)DECEMBER3119951994________________________________________________________________________________Assets:Currentassets:Cashandcashequivalents$137,043$66,713Short-terminvestments603,296652,461Accountsreceivable(includingamountsfromrelatedparties:1995-$19,281;1994-$13,184;lessallowancesof:1995-$6,672;1994-$4,422)172,160146,267Inventories93,648103,200Prepaidexpensesandothercurrentassets39,