会计信息欺诈经验分析及识别模型

1C212341212345123434180%93%19914120011632142371.43199619969.06%200118.2%20901995200150150200260200112Enron6WorldCom()441411AIPO5000IPO4129%STST2STPT4182000ST199920002590ST3.9410%6%9610%2001417541997200117.047517206601.1:6790TSAI19981998:199896001997:6200129074301181997-200117.04753WorldCom3820007807,199998200141058.6020001.9%82001SPE2.12951.1418Loebbecke19%2Loebbecke29%102.3.11119991.765084%20004.237191.7%15%2D20011625.3964419982.243%1.184%163=+--12++--+++--411998-2000177734187981213=+-/10=/=/5CFRA114CFRA15141151521111a1-a11A1-A112A1a1:/-A2a2:/16A3a3:/A4a4:+/A5a5:/A6a6:/A7a7:/A8a8:/A9a9:/A10a10:/17A11a11:/311a1-a11A1-A1115117.6715114.631156486ST8195ST8786STST944318ST85ST8555ST74967311A1A3/A4+/A6/A7/A8/A10/A11/84A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A111291312513111181111565748577874.111p=0.0501010100195TestsofBetween-SubjectsEffectsTypeIIISumofSquaresdfMeanSquareFSig.A11.6631.0001.6637.9770.009A20.3001.0000.3001.1670.289A32.2221.0002.22211.7890.002A40.8971.0000.8973.8040.061A50.0401.0000.0400.1490.702A60.9921.0000.9924.2680.048A71.2051.0001.2055.3620.028A80.5561.0000.5562.2400.146A90.0001.0000.0000.0001.000A100.1391.0000.1390.5280.473A110.5561.0000.5562.2400.146A1A3A6A7p0.052n6SourceTypeIIISumofSquaresdfMeanSquareFSig.N56.033156.03320.608.00020N=6N66712380%11493%0.8620%7%4111A1A3/A4+/A6/A7/A8/A10/A11/81121A1A3A6A7p0.05n,80%93%41199811Logistic11998220003.20014S.L.5ScottL.Summers,JohnT.Sweeney,1998,FraudulentlyMisstatedFinancialStatementsandInsiderTrading:AnEmpiricalAnalysis,TheAccountingReview716Abarbanell,J.andB.Bushee,1997,FundamentalAnalysis,FutureEarningsandStockPrices,JournalofAccountingResearch357Arya,A.,Glover,J.,S.Sunder,1998,Earningsmanagementandrevelationprinciple,ReviewofAccountingStudies8PaulWilliamPolinski,2000,TheRoleofAccountingPrinciplesin22DetectingEarningsManagement,ReviewofAccountingStudies9AbarbanellJ.,andB.Bushee.1997,Fundamentalanalysis,futureearningsandstockprices,JournalofAccountingResearch35(Spring):1-2410Bemard,V.,andJ.Noel.1999.Doinventorydisclosurespredictsalesandearnings?JournalofAccounting,AuditingandFinance6(Spring):145-18111