IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L01Macro

L-1MacroeconomicStability,MacroeconomicPolicies,andMacro-PrudentialPoliciesPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05OutlineWhatismacroeconomicstabilityandwhydowecare?PoliciesformacroeconomicstabilityFiscalpolicyMonetarypolicyExchangeratepolicyThefinancialsectorandmacroeconomicstabilityMacro-prudentialpolicies2ThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.”WhatisMacroeconomicStabilityandWhyDoWeCare?3MMFWhatdowemeanby“macroeconomicstability”?•Macroeconomicstabilityexistswhenkeyeconomicrelationshipsareinbalance:–Internalbalanceoccurswhenrealoutputisatorclosetoitscapacitylevelandtheinflationrateislowandnon-accelerating–Externalbalanceoccurswhenthecurrentaccountpositioncanbesustainedbycapitalflowsontermscompatiblewiththegrowthprospectsoftheeconomywithoutresorttorestrictionsontradeandpayments4MMFWhydowecareaboutmacrostability?•“Inpractice,theconceptofastablemacroeconomicframeworkisusedtomeanamacroeconomicpolicyenvironmentthatisconducivetogrowth.”Fischer(1993)•“Conceptually,macroeconomicinstabilityreferstophenomenathatdecreasethepredictabilityofthedomesticmacroeconomicenvironment,anditisofconcernbecauseunpredictabilityhampersresource-allocationdecisions,investmentandgrowth.”MontielandServén(2005)5MMFVolatilityandgrowthSource:Ramey&Ramey(AER,1995)92countries,1962-85Growth=0.030–0.154Vol(-2.3)R2=0.057ThereappearstobeanegativerelationshipbetweentheaverageandthestandarddeviationofpercapitaGDPgrowth,bothcalculatedoverlongperiods.6MMFVolatilityandgrowthSource:HnatkovskaandLoayza(2005)79countries,1960-20007MMFCrisisvolatilitySource:WEO(Ch.IV,Oct.2009)8MMF(Logscale)OutputcostsofcrisesLevelofoutputLevelofoutputSource:CerraandSaxena(2008)9MMFOutputcostsofcrisesSource:WEO(Ch.IV,Oct.2009)Onaverage,outputfallssteadilybelowitspre-crisistrenduntilthethirdyearafterthecrisisanddoesnotreboundthereafter.Firstyearofcrisisatt=0Meandifferencefromyeart=-11Theinterquartilerangeindicatesthemiddle50%ofallcrises88bankingcrisesfromearly1970sto2002222currencycrisesfromearly1970sto2002Outputevolutionafterbankingcrises(Percentofpre-crisistrend)Outputevolutionaftercurrencycrises(Percentofpre-crisistrend)YearYear10MMFGDPgrowthSource:WEO(October2013)11MMF-6-4-20246810198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018RealGDPgrowthAnnualpercentchangeAdvancedeconomiesEmergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiesOutputgrowthvolatilitySource:WEO(Ch.V,Oct.2007)Beforetheglobalfinancialcrisis,outputgrowthvolatilityhadbeensteadilydecliningfromitspeakduringthe1970s.12MMFOutputgrowthvolatilitySource:WEO(Ch.V,Oct.2007)(Rolling10-yearstandarddeviationsofdetrendedgrowth)13MMFVolatilitypatternsSource:WEO(Ch.V,Oct.2007)Growthtakeoffbeginsintimet=0onthex-axis.(1950forBrazil,Japan,Mexico,W.Germany;1963forKorea;1979forChina;1984forIndia)14MMFPoliciesforMacroeconomicStability15MMFWhatcausesmacroeconomicinstability?•Exogenousshocks–E.g.,termsoftradeshocks,naturaldisasters,financialcontagion,etc.•Inappropriatepolicies–E.g.,excessivelyloosefiscalpolicy16MMFWhatshouldpolicymakersdo?•Removedestabilizingpoliciesthatarethemselvessourcesofshocks–E.g.,tightenexcessivelyloosefiscalpolicy–Dependsontheinstitutionalsetting•Usepoliciesasstabilizinginstrumentsinresponsetoexogenousshocks–E.g.,countercyclicalfiscalpolicy–Dependsonhowvulnerabletheeconomyistoshocks17MMFPoliciesformacroeconomicstability•Fiscalpolicy•Monetarypolicy•Exchangeratepolicy•Financialsectorpolicies18MMFFiscalpolicy•Iffiscalpolicyisthecauseofmacroeconomicinstability,strengtheningthefiscalbalancewillpromoteinternalbalanceandexternalbalanceCAB=SI=(SgIg)+(SpIp)•Keymeasures:–Expenditurerestraint,expenditurereallocation–Revenue-raisinginitiatives(taxandnon-tax)•Fiscalreformmustbepermanentinordertobecredible19MMFPublicsectorsolvencycondition•Thepresentvalue(PV)ofprimarysurpluses(T-G)andseignioragerevenue(dM)shouldbeatleastaslargeasthegovernment’soutstandingstockofnetdebt(B):PV{T-G+dM}=B•Stabilityrequiresthattheauthoritieschooseamonetaryandfiscalpolicystancethatisconsistentwithmaintainingpublicsectorsolvencyatlowlevelsofinflation,whileleavingsomescopeformitigatingtheimpactofrealandfinancialshocksonmacroeconomicperformance20MMFFiscalpolicyoverthecycle•Oldview:Limitedroleforfiscalpolicyrelativetomonetarypolicy–Focusondebtsustainabilityandfiscalrulestoachievethis•Newview:Countercyclicalfiscalpolicyisanimportanttool–Createmorefiscalspaceingoodtimes:lowertargetdebtlevels–Designbetterautomaticfiscalstabilizers:rulesthatallowsometransfersortaxestovarybasedonpre-specifiedtriggerstiedtothestateoftheeconomiccycle21MMFFiscalbalancesSource:WEO(Ch.I,Oct.2009)-10-8-6-4-20219701975198019851990199520002005AdvancedeconomiesEmerginganddevelopingeconomiesGeneralgovernmentfiscalbalances(PercentofGDP)22MMFFiscalvolatility(Unweightedaverages)4Definedasther