美国股市通胀对利润率、估值及回报率的负面影响 080616

2008年6月16日美国：投资组合策略高盛策略研究12008年6月16日美国：投资组合策略美股观点：通货膨胀通胀对利润率、估值及回报率的负面影响商品价格上涨的状况将会持续：关注“原材料”工业品出厂价格指数高盛商品研究团队预计，能源、金属及农业领域中不少商品的价格平均将比去年上涨50%。在以往的“原材料”工业品出厂价格指数上涨时期里，企业的经营利润率下降、市盈率估值收缩且股权回报率较低。通胀加速时期的利润率、估值及回报率在“原材料”工业品出厂价格指数上涨的时期里，能源股和材料股的回报率较高，其表现一贯好于大市。此外，科技股和日常消费品股的表现也普遍好于大市。金融股的表现一向较差。我们预计，可选消费品和电信企业所面临的利润率压力可能是最大的，而材料和科技企业的利润率受“原材料”工业品出厂价格指数上涨的影响可能较小。工业品出厂价格指数（原材料）加速上涨：利润率、估值及回报率1975年来8次不同通胀时期的分析，共80个月PeriodsofAcceleratingPPICrudeMaterialsInflationOperatingHitRateMarginP/EAverageofout-ChangeChangeReturnperformanceEnergy(175)bp(2)%18%88%Materials(81)71275InformationTechnology(52)(7)763ConsumerStaples(93)(5)788Industrials(36)(2)538HealthCare(81)(7)463S&P500(86)(5)4-UtilitiesNA(2)250ConsumerDiscretionary(102)(1)138TelecomServices(151)(6)150FinancialsNA(4)(3)38资料来源：Compustat、高盛研究高思庭(212)902-6781|[e-mail]高盛集团NicoleFox(212)357-1744|[e-mail]高盛集团CaesarMaasry(212)902-9693|[e-mail]高盛集团AndersNielsen(212)357-6003|[e-mail]高盛集团AmandaSneider(212)357-9860|[e-mail]高盛集团高盛集团与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明，见信息披露之前的部分，其他重要披露信息请参阅。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师无须参加纳斯达克/纽约证券交易所的分析师考试。高盛集团全球投资研究June16,2008UnitedStates:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsStrategyResearch1June16,2008UnitedStates:PortfolioStrategyUSEquityViews:InflationInflationdampensmargins,multiples,&returnsCommoditypriceinflationtopersist:WatchPPIcrudematerialsGoldmanSachsCommoditiesResearchexpectsmanyEnergy,MetalsandAgriculturecommoditypricestojumpbyanaverageof50%vs.lastyear.PriorperiodsofrisingPPI“crudematerials”inflationcoincidedwithfallingoperatingmargins,P/Emultiplecontraction,andlowequityreturns.Margins,multiples,andreturnswheninflationacceleratesEnergyandMaterialspostedhighreturnsandconsistentlyoutperformedduringperiodsofrisingPPI“crudematerials”inflation.TechnologyandConsumerStaplesalsogenerallyoutperformed.Financialsconsistentlygeneratedpoorperformance.Lookingahead,ConsumerDiscretionaryandTelecommarginsarelikelytobepressuredthemost,whileMaterialsandTechmarginsmaybetterwithstandPPI“crudematerials”inflation.AcceleratingPPI(crudematerials)inflation:Margins,multiplesandreturnsAnalysiscovers8differentperiodstotaling80monthssince1975PeriodsofAcceleratingPPICrudeMaterialsInflationOperatingHitRateMarginP/EAverageofout-ChangeChangeReturnperformanceEnergy(175)bp(2)%18%88%Materials(81)71275InformationTechnology(52)(7)763ConsumerStaples(93)(5)788Industrials(36)(2)538HealthCare(81)(7)463S&P500(86)(5)4-UtilitiesNA(2)250ConsumerDiscretionary(102)(1)138TelecomServices(151)(6)150FinancialsNA(4)(3)38Source:Compustat,GoldmanSachsResearch.DavidJ.Kostin(212)902-6781|[e-mail],Sachs&Co.NicoleFox(212)357-1744|[e-mail],Sachs&Co.CaesarMaasry(212)902-9693|[e-mail],Sachs&Co.AndersNielsen(212)357-6003|[e-mail],Sachs&Co.AmandaSneider(212)357-9860|[e-mail],Sachs&Co.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seethetextprecedingthedisclosures.Forotherimportantdisclosuresgoto:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsStrategyResearch2Equitymarketimplicationsofcommodity-inducedinflationInvestorshaveexpressedincreasingconcernregardinglong-terminflationprospects.Portfoliomanagersspeakabout“stagflation”andcomparethecurrenteconomicsituationwiththespecterofthe1970s:WINbuttons,miseryindex,cardigansweatersandloweredthermostats,highoilprices,longgaslines,andevenandodddays(nottomentiondiscoandbellbottomjeans).Allarebadmemoriesbestforgotten.Evidencecertainlyexiststhatinflationisrisingonmanylevels.BothheadlineandcoreCPIhaverisenduringthepastsixmonths.TheFed’spreferredmeasureofinflation,thePCEdeflator,hasrisenaboveits1%-2%comfortzone.Friday’sCPIreleaseshowedyear-over-yearconsumerpriceinflationisrunningat4.2%,andithasbeenbelow2%onlythreemonthsoutofthelastfouryears.Commoditypriceshavesoaredtonewrecords,andthelasttimethattheUSexperiencedincreasesofthismagnitude—inthe1970s—theywereassociatedwithadecadeoframpantinflationanddismalgrowth.Fortunately,wedonotanticipateareturntothewage-pricespiralof30yearsago.Inflationarycomparisonswiththe1970sareflawedonmanylevels,inourview.OurcolleaguesaddressedthistopicintheUSEconomicsAnalystpublishedlastweek,“CommodityInflation,notCommodityContagion.”Simplyput,GoldmanSachsEconomicsResearchbelievesUSheadlineandcoreinflationwillremainuncomfortablein2008,butexpectsheadlineinflationtobegindriftingdownlatethisyearandcoreinflationtoeaseslightlyin2009,toabout2%bytheendoftheyear.Allinflationisnotequal:CPI,PPIPPI(crudematerials)Hou