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《———》20086FDI、(,300222):1985-2006,,。,。。2006,10,,。,,,。:;;;[]F830.59[]A[]1002-4034(2008)06-0061-07、,,“”,“”。,,,(FDI)。FDI,。,FDI,;,FDI,。FDI,,、、,2060(KaleckiSach,1966),,;“”,FDI,;FDI“”,FDI。,FDI,,(2004),FDI,FDI。,FDI。2090,“”,FDI、、。,FDI、。,[](07CGJ007);。[]2008-06-08[](1976-),,,;,。61--《———》20086FDI,FDI,。、FDI,FDI(、,2006):FDI,FDI;FDI,;FDI,,。FDI,FDI。1FDI。FDI,,。、,(16)。,(),。,,。,(),FDIFDI。FDI,,FDI,,。,,,。,,。FDI,、。,,,,;,。,FDI。,FDI,。,FDI():(1),FDI。:FDIFDI,,。,;,FDI,,。(2),,,。,。 !#$!%&$&$&’( )*+,-.///0 1%+,2)34++,-.5556 789:++,-.////; 78=-.?:+@A5555B CDEFGHIJ=-.?KLA55M NO7PQRSTUR=-.?VWA55X YZ=-.?KLA///[ \]^_‘J=-.?KLA555a bcJdeJfg=-.?KLA//+,-.hijk3hihihihihi=-.limnolihilili1FDI:+,-。+-,FDI。62--《———》20086(3)FDI,,,。(4),,。。3。FDI,,1。、1.,,FDI。,5-10。,,,。,FDI,,,、、。FDI,,、,。,,1995,57%,22%;2005,85%,60%(1)。。2006,3902.36,25.62%,76.58%。,,200658.2%,30.20%,17.93①。2.,FDI。,FDI,,,1985,FDI,,FDI(2)。, !#!$$1:。63--《———》20086,,。,(2)。,FDI,。,,。,FDI80%,20%。,FDI。、1.,,FDI。GDP、,FDI。“”,、、,;,、、;。,,,。2006FDI147,26%,、、、、。FDI,,。FDI,2006、,82,6%。FDI,,2FDI(1985-2006):,《》。 :。2、FDI64--《———》20086,。WTO,,FDI,FDI,,。2.FDI,,FDI,。1985-1996,FDI41.59%,1997-2006,8.62%,,FDI。1995,FDI150,8.8%,2006371;(3)。,,,FDI。510,2009,,500,,FDI,。,,,,,。,、,,。FDI,、,。3.、,FDIFDI,,。2006,1994-2006,FDI3FDI、(1985-2006):《》。:(1)“”,FDI,“”;FDI“”。(2)、;。 FDIFDI65--《———》20086 ! !!!#$$#$!$$!##!#$$!#!#!#!#!!#!#!!$#$$!$#$!##!$#$$!$!#$!#$#$#$#!$$#$$$$!!##!$#$!$#$$!##!##$!$$$##3FDI:(:)4FDI(:) ,FDI。2006:FDI865.67,FDI7364.64②;FDI912.2,41.89%;FDI371.55,FDI5.73%③。1994-2006,:1994-2006FDI9.87%,FDIFDI,,FDI1994-2006④;1994-2006FDI10.04%,FDI5%15%;1994-2006FDI20.50%,FDI15%25%。,3。,,FDI,,。,FDI(5%),(25%),2012,FDIFDI,2013FDI(4),。、,,FDI,FDI,FDI,,。,66--《———》20086,FDI,。1.,。,,,。,。,,,,。2.。。,,,,。3.,。FDI,。,,,,。:①。②FDIKt=Ft+(1-δ)Kt-1,δ=0(,,2004),FDI=FDI+FDI。,1979-1984FDI41.10。③KaleckiSach(1966),,FDI。④IMF5-10FDI5%-10%。。[][1],.FDI[J].,2004,(11).[2],.:、[J].,2006,(3).()TheEffectofProfitRepatriationandCapacitytoEarnForeignExchangethroughExportsofFDIonChina’sBalanceofPaymentsQIJun-yanAbstract:Usingthedataduring1985-2006,byconsideringthedifferenteffectsofFDIonthebalanceofpayment,thepaperanalyseshowtheprofitrepatriationandthecapacitytoearnforeignexchangethroughexportsofFDIaffectChina’sbalanceofpayments,especiallythecurrentaccount.TheanalysisshowsthatFDIisanimportantfactorthataffectsChina’stwin-surplus,butthetrendwillchangeinthenearfuture,becausemoreexport-orientedFDIsconvertintomarket-seekingFDIs,thecapacitytoearnforeignexchangethroughexportsofFDIwilldeclineandthetrendofFDI’sprofitrepatriationwillenhance.Therefore,itisimperativetointensifythedynamicsupervisionofFDI,whichcanreducethenegativeeffectofFDIandavoidthe“crisisofcurrentaccount”likelycausedbyFDI.Keywords:FDI;Profitrepatriation;Capacitytoearnforeignexchangethroughexports;BalanceofPayments67--
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