XXXX年4季度全球宏观经济报告

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分宏观经济研究报告2010年10月8日研发部邱云波宏观研究员联系电话：[phone]SAC执业证书编号：S1340210070002Email:[e-mail]四季度宏观经济报告摘要:美国经济复苏放缓。二季度美GDP环比折年率增长1.7%，较一季度的3.7%大幅回落。三季度以来美国经济数据略有好转，其中7月份出口创2008年8月以来新高，环比增长1.8%，贸易逆差缩，环比下降14%，显示美国经常项目逆差有所修复。8月份工业产出回暖，月率上升0.2%。零售销售额环比增长0.4%，已实现连续两个月增长。CPI月率上升0.3%，主要受能源和食品价格驱动。新屋销售环比持平，成屋销售略有好转，房地产市场趋于稳定。从经济前景看，8月份美国耐用品订单月率下降1.3%，创2009年8月以来最大降幅。8月份ISM制造业PMI增长至56.3点，高于7月份的55.5点。美国领先指标好坏参半，经济前景尚不明朗。宏观经济政策方面，美联储维持基准利率不变，或将提供进一步宽松政策；欧元区二季度GDP环比增长1.0%，下半年经济增长渐次回落，但全年复苏有望超预期。9月份欧盟上调了经济增长预期，预计2010年欧盟经济增速将达到1.8%，欧元区经济增长1/7%。虽然增长动力减弱，但7月份欧元区工业产出、居民消费和外贸情况都略有好转，但建筑业产出下降；德国二季度GDP环比上升2.2%，同比增长4.1%。三季度德国复苏动能减弱，经济增长回归正常化。7月份德国工业生产指数为103.7，环比与上个月持平。营建产出指数为114，较上个月上升了0.88%。贸易帐盈余扩大至127亿欧元，主要是进口下降超预期，表明其内需不足。从景气指标看，9月份德IFO预期指数持续下降，表明未来德国经济复苏速度将趋缓；日本二季度GDP环比增长折合年率增长1.5%，7月份以来日元升值至15年以来最高水平，日本政府干预汇市以遏制日元升值趋势。8月份日本CPI同比下降0.9%，与上月持平，环比上升0.3%，通缩风险略有缓解。9月份日本政府出台了9150亿日元经济刺激计划，近期日本内阁将起草补充预算案，包含额外支出总计4.6万亿日元。日本银行决定继续将基准利率维持在0.1％的水平不变；四季度中国经济增软着陆，经济高位回调趋稳。经济景气指标持续回暖，最新的景气指标显示中国经济复苏势头进一步巩固。从已公布的8月份宏观经济指标来看，工业产出和固定资产投资渐次回落，但降幅不断缩窄，居民消费和净出口仍然保持在较快的增长速度。尽管有基期因素的影响，经济保持较快增长态势仍可持续，预计四季度GDP增长将达到8.5%以上，全年经济增速将超过10%。9月份CFLP的制造业PMI进一步上升至53.8，预示中国经济高位回稳趋势基本确立。9月份以来，随着天气情况的好转，食品价格涨幅趋缓预计9月份CPI将与8月份持平，维持在3.5%左右，全年CPI仍可达到3%的目标。人民币汇率升值外部压力加大，但爆发全面贸易战的几率较小。独立声明作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于本人的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。宏观经济研究1/29目录一、美国经济数据略有好转，难改低迷复苏势头····································································································51.1美国7月份出口扩大，贸易逆差缩窄···············································································································51.2工业产值连续两个月上升，产能利用率持续提高······························································································51.3消费需求持续小幅增长，CPI环比上升············································································································61.4房地产市场趋于稳定：新屋销售环比持平，成屋销售略有好转·······································································81.6领先指标好坏参半，经济前景尚不明朗··········································································································101.7美联储维持利率不变，将提供进一步宽松政策································································································11二、欧盟经济下半年渐次回落，但全年复苏有望超预期·······················································································112.1欧盟上调经济增速··········································································································································122.2德国复苏动能减弱，经济增长回归正常化······································································································142.3英国二季度增长1.7%，未来增长动能不足····································································································16三、日本政府追加刺激政策，干预汇市遏制日元升值···························································································16四、中国经济增软着陆，经济高位回调趋稳·········································································································174.1经济景气指标持续回暖···································································································································184.2由食品价格推动的通胀压力或减小·················································································································184.3房地产市场反弹，调控政策加码·····················································································································194.4固定资产投资回落幅度缩窄····························································································································20宏观经济研究2/294.5消费持续平稳增长··········································································································································214.6外贸保持较快的增长速度·······························································································································224.7货币信贷稳定增长··········································································································································234.8人民币汇率升值外部压力加大，但爆发全面贸易战的几率较小·····································································24图表目录图表1：7月份美贸易逆差改善明显·······················································································································5图表2：7月份美对华出口小幅增加，逆差下降·····································································································5图表3：7月份美工业产出回暖·······························································································································6图表4：7月份美工业新增订单增加·······················································································································6图表5：8月份美国个人消费支出小幅增长·············································································································7图表6：7月份美国个人可支配收入小幅增长·········································································································7图表7：8月份美国CPI持续上扬············································································································