0906SHCFA二级精品班-权益类投资证券分析-曾丹华

11金程教育CFA二级精品班讲义EquityAnalysis讲师：曾丹华，CFA日期：2009年4月地点：■上海2专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUCFA二级课程框架TotalAlternativeInvestmentsDerivativeInvestmentsFixedIncomeAnalysisEquityAnalysisPortfolioManagementCorporateFinanceFinancialStatementAnalysisEconomicAnalysisQuantitativeMethodsEthics&ProfessionalStandards5--15StudySession131005--15StudySession16-175--15StudySession14-1520--30StudySession10-125--15StudySession185--15StudySession8-915--25StudySession5-75--10StudySession45--10StudySession310StudySession1-23专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUOverviewofEquityValuationSS10ValuationConcepts¾Reading33ANoteonAssetValuation¾Reading34TheEquityValuationProcess¾Reading35Equity:MarketsandInstruments¾Reading36ReturnConceptsSS11IndustryandCompanyAnalysisinaGlobalContext¾Reading37Equity:ConceptsandTechniques¾Reading38TheFiveCompetitiveForcesthatShapeStrategy¾Reading39IndustryAnalysis¾Reading40ValuationinEmergingMarkets¾Reading41DiscountedDividendValuation4专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUOverviewofEquityValuationSS12ValuationModels¾Reading42FreeCashFlowValuation¾Reading43Market-BasedValuation:PriceMultiples¾Reading44U.S.PortfolioStrategy:SeekingValue—AnatomyofValuation¾Reading45ResidualIncomeValuationSS13AlternativeAssetValuation¾Reading46InvestmentAnalysis¾Reading47IncomePropertyAnalysisandAppraisal¾Reading48PrivateEquityValuation¾Reading49InvestinginCommodities¾Reading50EvaluatingthePerformanceofYourHedgeFunds¾Reading51BuyersBeware:EvaluatingandManagingtheManyFacetsoftheRisksofHedgeFunds5专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUStudyTipsforEquityValuation¾NeverforgettheBIGPicture¾Trytolinkeverypointswithyourinvestmentexperience¾Usecommonsense¾CorePrinciple:ReturnandGrowthdetermineInvestmentValue.¾CoreTopic:IndustryAnalysisandValuationModels6专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUSS10EquityInvestments:ValuationConcepts7专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUSession10¾Reading33ANoteonAssetValuation¾Reading34TheEquityValuationProcess¾Reading35Equity:MarketandInstruments¾Reading36ReturnConcepts8专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUANoteonAssetValuation9专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUANoteonAssetValuation¾BenjaminGrahamandDavidDodd¾JohnBurrWilliams10专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDU¾Published“SecurityAnalysis”(1934):4approachestodeterminethevalueofasecuritybasedonananalysisofthefirm’sfinancialstatements.¾Fourtheditionof“SecurityAnalysis”(1962):intrinsicvalue=earningspower*appropriatecapitalizationfactor.¾AccordingtoGrahamandDodd,investmentinvolvedpurchasinganassetthatwastradingatorarounditsintrinsicvalue,andtheconceptthatearningspowershouldprovidea“marginofsafety”.BenjaminGrahamandDavidDodd11专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUJohnBurrWilliams¾Published“TheTheoryofInvestmentValue”(1938)¾AdvancingthenotionthatvalueofaInvestment=presentvalueofitsfuturecashflows,discountedattheopportunitycostofthecapitalnecessarytomaketheinvestment.¾1962,themoderndividenddiscountandfreecashflowmodelscameoutTheworkofthesethreemenformstheframeworkoffundamentalequityanalysis.12专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUTheEquityValuationProcess13专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUTheEquityValuationProcess¾Valuation¾Assumptions¾QuantitativeandQualitativefactorsinvaluation¾Qualityofinputs¾Footnotesofaccountingstatementsandotherdisclosures¾Models¾Alpha¾OwnershipPerspectives14专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUValuation1.Definition:estimationofanasset’svalue1)basedonvariablesperceivedtoberelatedtofutureinvestmentreturns,or2)basedoncomparisonswithcloselysimilarassets2.Application:1)Stockselection2)Readingthemarket3)Projectingthevalueofcorporateactions4)Fairnessopinions5)Planningandconsulting6)Communicationwithanalystsandinvestors7)Valuationofprivatebusiness15专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDU3.Valuationinportfoliomanagement1)planning,executionandfeedback→3stepsintheportfoliomanagementprocess(valuationismostcloselyassociatedwiththeplanningandexecutionsteps)2)Planning¾identificationandspecificationtheinvestmentobjectivesandconstraints→writingdetailontheinvestmentstrategyofsecuritiesselection3)Execution¾Portfolioselectionproblem¾PortfolioimplementationproblemValuation16专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUQuantitativeandQualitativefactorsinvaluation1.Quantitativefactors1)keysourcefromcompany’saccountinginformationandfinancialdisclosures2)including:balancesheet,incomestatement,cashflowstatement,aswellasthefootnotes2.Qualitativefactors1)purpose:tomeasureindustryperformance,suchaslegalandregulatoryenvironment2)including:qualityofmanagementteam;transparencyofitsperformance;theanalyst’sconfidenceinthefirm’s(industry’s)accountingpractices17专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUQualityofinputsP15-Losc1.Qualityofinputs¾analystscanforecastfirm’sfutureeconomicvaluebasedoncurrentfacts2.Requirement¾thefinancialfactorsmustbedisclosedinsufficientdetailandaccuracy¾theinvestigationofissuesrelatingtoaccuracyisoftenbroadlyreferredtoasqualityofearningsanalysis,namelythescrutinyofallfinancialstatementsGarbagein,Garbageout18专业来自百分百的投入CopyRight2009ByGFEDUFootnotestoaccountingstatementsandotherdisclosures→SPEs(specialpurposeentities)Off-balance-sheetissuesBalancesheetissues→Expe