XXXX年美国热点经济学文章集锦(英文)

PainwithoutPurposeJ.BradfordDeLongProfessorofEconomicsandDirectoroftheEarthInstituteatColumbiaUniversityBERKELEY–Threetimesinmylife(sofar),Ihaveconcludedthatmyunderstandingoftheworldwassubstantiallywrong.Thefirsttimewasafterthepassagein1994oftheNorthAmericaFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA),whentheflowoffinancetoMexicotobuildfactoriestoexporttothelargestconsumermarketintheworldwasoverwhelmedbytheflowofcapitalheadedtotheUnitedStatesinsearchofafriendlierinvestmentclimate.TheresultwastheMexicanpesocrisisoflaterthatyear(whichI,asUSAssistantSecretaryoftheTreasury,hadtohelpcontain).Mysecondepiphanycameinthefallandwinterof2008,whenitbecameclearthatlargebankshadnocontrolovereithertheirleverageortheirderivativesbooks,andthattheworld’scentralbankshadneitherthepowernorthewilltomaintainaggregatedemandinthefaceofalargefinancialcrisis.Thethirdmomentisnow.Today,wefaceanominaldemandshortfallof8%relativetothepre-recessiontrend,nosignsofgatheringinflation,andunemploymentratesintheNorthAtlanticregionthatareatleastthreepercentagepointshigherthananycredibleestimateofthesustainablerate.Andyet,eventhoughpoliticianswhofailtosafeguardeconomicgrowthandhighemploymenttendtolosethenextelection,leadersinEuropeandtheUSareclamoringtoenactpoliciesthatwouldreduceoutputandemploymentintheshortrun.AmImissingsomethinghere?Ihadthoughtthatthefundamentalissuesinmacroeconomicsweresettledin1829.Backthen,evenJean-BaptisteSaynolongerbelievedinSay’sLawofbusiness-cyclefrequencies.Heknewverywellthatafinancialpanicandexcessivedemandforfinancialassetscouldproducedeficientdemandforcurrently-producedcommoditiesandforlabor,andthatwhilesuchashort-runbreakdownofSay’sLawmightbetemporary,itwasnonethelesshighlydestructive.Armedwiththatinsight,thediseaseofthebusinesscycleshouldbeaddressedinoneormoreofthreeways.1.Don’tgothereinthefirstplace.Avoidwhateveritis–whetheranexternaldrainunderthegoldstandardoracollapseoflong-termwealthaswiththecollapseofthedot-combubbleorapanickedflighttosafetyasin2007-2008–thatcreatesashortageof,andexcessdemandfor,financialassets.2.Ifyoufailtoavoidtheproblem,thenhavethegovernmentstepinandspendoncurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicesinordertokeepemploymentatitsnormallevelstooffsetprivate-sectorspendingcuts.3.Ifyoufailtoavoidtheproblem,thenhavethegovernmentcreateandprovidethefinancialassetsthattheprivatesectorwantstoholdinordertogettheprivatesectortoresumeitsspendingoncurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.Thereareagreatmanysubtletiestohowagovernmentshouldattempttopursueeachofthesepolicyoptions.Attemptstocarryoutoneofthethreemayexcludeorinterferewithattemptstocarryouttheothers.And,ifinflationaryexpectationsbecomeembeddedinaneconomy,itmaybeimpossibleforanyofthethreecurestowork.Butthatisnotoursituationtoday.Likewise,iftheperceivedcreditworthinessofthegovernmentisshaken,theninterventionfromsomeoutsidelenderoflastresortmightbeessentialforeitherthesecondorthirdcuretowork.Butthat,too,isnotthesituationtodayinthecoreeconomiesoftheNorthAtlantic.Yet,somehow,allthreeofthesecuresarenowoffthetable.ThereisnolikelihoodofreformsofWallStreetandCanaryWharfaimedatdiminishingthelikelihoodandseverityofanyfuturefinancialpanic,andnolikelihoodofgovernmentinterventiontorestorethenormalflowofriskyfinancethroughthebankingsystem.Noristhereanypoliticalpressuretoexpandorevenextendtheanemicgovernmentstimulusmeasuresthathavebeenundertaken.Meanwhile,theEuropeanCentralBankisactivelylookingforwaystoshrinkthesupplyoffinancialassetsthatitprovidestotheprivatesector,andtheUSFederalReserveisunderpressuretodothesame.Inbothcases,itisclaimedthatfurtherexpansionaryasset-provisionpoliciesruntheriskofignitinginflation.Yetnolikelihoodofinflationcanbeseenwhentrackingpriceindexesorfinancial-marketreadingsofforecastexpectations.Andnoapproachinggovernmentdebtcrisisinthecoreeconomiescanbeseenwhentrackinggovernmentinterestrates.Nevertheless,whenyoulistentothespeechesofpolicymakersonbothsidesoftheAtlantic,youhearpresidentsandprimeministerssaythingslike:“Justasfamiliesandcompanieshavehadtobecautiousaboutspending,governmentmusttightenitsbeltaswell.”Andherewereachthelimitsofmymentalhorizonsasaneoliberal,asatechnocrat,andasamainstreamneoclassicaleconomist.Rightnow,theglobaleconomyissufferingagrandmalseizureofslackdemandandhighunemployment.Weknowthecures.Yetweseemdeterminedtoinflictfurthersufferingonthepatient.J.BradfordDeLong,aformerUSAssistantSecretaryoftheTreasury,isProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeleyandaResearchAssociateattheNationalBureauforEconomicResearch.QuantitativeEasingandAmerica’sEconomicReboundMartinFeldsteinProfessorofEconomicsatHarvard2011-02-24CAMBRIDGE–ThereisnodoubtthattheAmericaneconomyralliedstronglyattheendof2010.ButhowmuchofthatwasduetotheUnitedStatesFederalReserve’stemporarypolicyofso-called“quantitativeeasing”?AndwhatdoestheanswermeanfortheUSeconomyin2011?Untilthefourthquarteroflastyear,theUSeconomicrecoverythatbeganinthesummerof2009wasdecidedlyanemic.AnnualGDPgrowthinthefirstthreequartersof2010averagedonlyabout2.6%–andmostofthatwasjustinventorybuilding.Withouttheinventory