XXXX年美国热点经济学文章集锦(英文)

1、PainwithoutPurposeJ.BradfordDeLongProfessorofEconomicsandDirectoroftheEarthInstituteatColumbiaUniversityBERKELEY–Threetimesinmylife(sofar),Ihaveconcludedthatmyunderstandingoftheworldwassubstantiallywrong.Thefirsttimewasafterthepassagein1994oftheNorthAmericaFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA),whentheflowoffinancetoMexicotobuildfactoriestoexporttothelargestconsumermarketintheworldwasoverwhelmedbytheflowofcapitalheadedtotheUnitedStatesinsearchofafriendlierinvestmentclimate.TheresultwastheMexicanpesocrisisof。

2、laterthatyear(whichI,asUSAssistantSecretaryoftheTreasury,hadtohelpcontain).Mysecondepiphanycameinthefallandwinterof2008,whenitbecameclearthatlargebankshadnocontrolovereithertheirleverageortheirderivativesbooks,andthattheworld’scentralbankshadneitherthepowernorthewilltomaintainaggregatedemandinthefaceofalargefinancialcrisis.Thethirdmomentisnow.Today,wefaceanominaldemandshortfallof8%relativetothepre-recessiontrend,nosignsofgatheringinflation,andunemploymentratesintheNorthAtlanticregionthatareatlea。

3、stthreepercentagepointshigherthananycredibleestimateofthesustainablerate.Andyet,eventhoughpoliticianswhofailtosafeguardeconomicgrowthandhighemploymenttendtolosethenextelection,leadersinEuropeandtheUSareclamoringtoenactpoliciesthatwouldreduceoutputandemploymentintheshortrun.AmImissingsomethinghere?Ihadthoughtthatthefundamentalissuesinmacroeconomicsweresettledin1829.Backthen,evenJean-BaptisteSaynolongerbelievedinSay’sLawofbusiness-cyclefrequencies.Heknewverywellthatafinancialpanicandexcessivedeman。

4、dforfinancialassetscouldproducedeficientdemandforcurrently-producedcommoditiesandforlabor,andthatwhilesuchashort-runbreakdownofSay’sLawmightbetemporary,itwasnonethelesshighlydestructive.Armedwiththatinsight,thediseaseofthebusinesscycleshouldbeaddressedinoneormoreofthreeways.1.Don’tgothereinthefirstplace.Avoidwhateveritis–whetheranexternaldrainunderthegoldstandardoracollapseoflong-termwealthaswiththecollapseofthedot-combubbleorapanickedflighttosafetyasin2007-2008–thatcreatesashortageof,andexcessd。

5、emandfor,financialassets.2.Ifyoufailtoavoidtheproblem,thenhavethegovernmentstepinandspendoncurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicesinordertokeepemploymentatitsnormallevelstooffsetprivate-sectorspendingcuts.3.Ifyoufailtoavoidtheproblem,thenhavethegovernmentcreateandprovidethefinancialassetsthattheprivatesectorwantstoholdinordertogettheprivatesectortoresumeitsspendingoncurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.Thereareagreatmanysubtletiestohowagovernmentshouldattempttopursueeachofthesepolicyoptions.Attemptstocar。

6、ryoutoneofthethreemayexcludeorinterferewithattemptstocarryouttheothers.And,ifinflationaryexpectationsbecomeembeddedinaneconomy,itmaybeimpossibleforanyofthethreecurestowork.Butthatisnotoursituationtoday.Likewise,iftheperceivedcreditworthinessofthegovernmentisshaken,theninterventionfromsomeoutsidelenderoflastresortmightbeessentialforeitherthesecondorthirdcuretowork.Butthat,too,isnotthesituationtodayinthecoreeconomiesoftheNorthAtlantic.Yet,somehow,allthreeofthesecuresarenowoffthetable.Thereisnolike。

7、lihoodofreformsofWallStreetandCanaryWharfaimedatdiminishingthelikelihoodandseverityofanyfuturefinancialpanic,andnolikelihoodofgovernmentinterventiontorestorethenormalflowofriskyfinancethroughthebankingsystem.Noristhereanypoliticalpressuretoexpandorevenextendtheanemicgovernmentstimulusmeasuresthathavebeenundertaken.Meanwhile,theEuropeanCentralBankisactivelylookingforwaystoshrinkthesupplyoffinancialassetsthatitprovidestotheprivatesector,andtheUSFederalReserveisunderpressuretodothesame.Inbothcases,。

8、itisclaimedthatfurtherexpansionaryasset-provisionpoliciesruntheriskofignitinginflation.Yetnolikelihoodofinflationcanbeseenwhentrackingpriceindexesorfinancial-marketreadingsofforecastexpectations.Andnoapproachinggovernmentdebtcrisisinthecoreeconomiescanbeseenwhentrackinggovernmentinterestrates.Nevertheless,whenyoulistentothespeechesofpolicymakersonbothsidesoftheAtlantic,youhearpresidentsandprimeministerssaythingslike:“Justasfamiliesandcompanieshavehadtobecautiousaboutspending,governmentmusttighte。

9、nitsbeltaswell.”Andherewereachthelimitsofmymentalhorizonsasaneoliberal,asatechnocrat,andasamainstreamneoclassicaleconomist.Rightnow,theglobaleconomyissufferingagrandmalseizureofslackdemandandhighunemployment.Weknowthecures.Yetweseemdeterminedtoinflictfurthersufferingonthepatient.J.BradfordDeLong,aformerUSAssistantSecretaryoftheTreasury,isProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeleyandaResearchAssociateattheNationalBureauforEconomicResearch.QuantitativeEasingandAmerica’sEconomicRebou。

10、ndMartinFeldsteinProfessorofEconomicsatHarvard2011-02-24CAMBRIDGE–ThereisnodoubtthattheAmericaneconomyralliedstronglyattheendof2010.ButhowmuchofthatwasduetotheUnitedStatesFederalReserve’stemporarypolicyofso-called“quantitativeeasing”?AndwhatdoestheanswermeanfortheUSeconomyin2011?Untilthefourthquarteroflastyear,theUSeconomicrecoverythatbeganinthesummerof2009wasdecidedlyanemic.AnnualGDPgrowthinthefirstthreequartersof2010averagedonlyabout2.6%–andmostofthatwasjustinventorybuilding.Withouttheinventory。