东南亚经济概论(1)

1251319755.4%200118.7%6.5%219902.823420151219957.7%32521997-1998567200111WTO158GDPGDP9200210WTO11WTO4WorldBank,GlobalEconomicProspects,20025WorldBank(1993)6WorldBank(2000)7WorldBank(2002b)81997-19989GDPGDP19961:220021:1101010%20%2%5%3lll1211995-2001133038%211WorldBank(2002b)12KawaiandUrata(2002)1341996-200120021:.Note:EmergingEastAsiaisASEANplusothernewlyindustrializingeconomiesplusChinaplusMongolia.Source:IMF,DirectionofTradeStatistics(variousyears);datareportedfromexportercountryaccounts.Notes:Diversification,orchangeinexportsduetonewproducts,accountsforasmallshare.a.Competitivefactor=changeinmarketshare.b.Demandfactor=changeinmarketsize.Source:NgandYeats(2003:Table9.1).5Note:EastAsiaNIEsreferstoHongKong/China,RepublicofKorea,Singapore,Taiwan/China.Source:IMF,DirectionofTradeStatistics(variousyears);datareportedfromexportercountryaccounts.Note:DevelopingEastAsiareferstoIndonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Cambodia,LaoPDR,Mongolia,Myanmar,Vietnam.Source:IMF,DirectionofTradeStatistics(variousyears);datareportedfromexportercountryaccounts141460722NgandYeats(2003)62:....Note:SITC=StandardInternationalTradeClassification.Source:NgandYeats(2003:Table12.1).Note:Inaddition,partsandcomponentsinthenon-top30exportsaccountforanadditional$8.3billionor4percentoftotalnon-top30exports.Source:NgandYeats(2003:Table17.1).Note:Revealedcomparativeadvantage(RCA)measuresacountry’srelativeexportperformanceinagoodj.Itisdefinedasthecountry’sshareofworldexportsofgoodj(xij/xwj)dividedbyitsshareoftotalworldexports(Xi/Xw),wherexijandxwjrepresentthevalueofgoodjexportedbycountryiandtheworld,respectively,andXiandXwarecountryi’sandtheworld’stotalexports,respectively.Ifthevalueoftheindexexceedsunity,thecountryissaidtohaveacomparativeadvantageintheproductionofgoodj.2199073200113%130%275%151646584070%3173Whilepovertyhasdeclinedsteadily...Source:WorldBank(2003a).inequalityiscauseforconcern,drivenbygapsbetweencountriesandlocations.GiniCoefficientforinterpersonalincomeequality0.010.020.030.040.050.0198819931998GinicoefficientInequalitywithincountries/locationsInequalitybetweencountries/locationsNote:CountryisdefinedsuchthatbothChinaandIndonesiaaredividedintoruralandurbanparts.Source:Milanovic(2003).Basedonhouseholdsurveydata.15WorldBank(2002A)16Milanovic(2003)198842.0199346.81719818,20025181940%15-20%20211819WorldBank(2003)20Hallward-Driemeier,Iarossi,andSokoloff(2002).219--WTO1024:.WTOWTO1WTOWTO1022WTO(5)5:23WTOWTO22WTOHuangandRozelle(2002).2311610332425WTOWTO50%26WTO12WTO3WTO2715WTOWTO2824anchovichinaandMartin(2002)Lardy(2001)25François(2002)1226FrançoisandSpinager(2002)2005127WTO2812establishmenttrade31230-40%WTO2010WTOWTO1%100GDP2.2%WTO29WTOGDP20003%20056%WTO10029IanchovichinaandWalmsley(2002)136:?IanchovichinaandMartin(2001).1004.3%2.6%7.3%6.0%10%1%WTO10%200120020%14WTO215%25%2330%67%3030NgandYeats(2003)153311993APEC-200211-200211WTO-+331SchiffandWinters(2003)161:ProposalASEANChinaKorea,Rep.ofJapanUSA%ofGDP(%ofGDPexcludingagriculturalliberalization)China+Korea+Japan-0.26(-0.16)+0.1(-0.2)+1.0(+0.6)+0.1(+0.2)+0.0(+0.0)ASEAN-China+0.9(+0.5)+0.0(+0.1)-0.1(-0.1)+0.0(+0.0)+0.0(+0.0)ASEAN-Japan+1.1(+0.2)-0.1(-0.1)-0.2(-0.1)+0.0(+0.1)+0.0(+0.0)ASEAN+3+1.5(+0.6)+0.1(-0.2)+1.1(+0.8)+0.2(+0.2)-0.1(+0.0)ASEAN+3+CER+1.3(+0.6)+0.0(-0.1)+1.1(+0.9)+0.2(+0.2)-0.1(+0.0)APECliberalization(MFN)+0.7+0.5+0.7+0.4-0.0APECpreferentialliberalization+0.8+0.6+0.9+0.4+0.0ScollayandGilbert(2002)forFTAproposalsandScollayandGilbert(2001)forAPECliberalizationproposals.13232IanchovichinaandWalmsley(2002)HoekmanandKonan(2000)Brenton(2003)17-WTOWTO7:Low-tariffblocreducestradediversion.Multidimensionalnatureofagreementscompounds“spaghettibowl”andimpedesmerging.Averagetariffrates:comparisonofMFNwithpreferentialrates024681012AFTAMFNAFTACEPT(2002)GlobalLDCsMFNGlobalINDsMFNNote:AFTA=ASEANFreeTradeArea;MFN=most-favorednation;CEPT=commoneffectivepreferentialtariff;LDCs=less-developedcountries;INDs=industrializedcountries.Sources:WorldBank(2001a)and:JSEPA=Japan-SingaporeEconomicPartnershipAgreement.Sources:(2001b)and(2002)34WorldBank(2002a)35WorldBank(2002c),32020364-WTO2002112015110760367%2137Codex3.53.81500Codex38WTOWTO8ExpansioninExportstoAPECfromImprovementsinTradeFacilitation(%changeinmanufactured,agricultureandrawmaterialexportsfrombase)05101520ChinaIndonesiaKorea,Rep.OfMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnamPortlogisticsStandardsharmonizationE-businessTransparency&professionalism37200136%Brenton(2003)22Wilsonandothers(2002).3940WTOWTOFAOCodexMutualRecognitionAgreementMRA202538OtsukiandWilson(2001)(2002)39CodexAlimentariusOrganizationforAnimalHealthInternationalOrganizationforEpizooticsHazardAnalysisCriticalControlPointHACCP)401996-1997232:Resource-basedLow-/medium-technologyHigh-technology198519961985199619851996HongKong2.14.478.56