人口红利_经济增长与人口政策

34520109Vol134,No15September201028PopulationResearch,,,,,,,,,;;;;,;,;,DemographicDividend,EconomicGrowthandPopulationPoliciesWangYingTongJianJiangZhenghuaAbstract:Chinahashadandwillcontinuetohavepopulationopportunitywindowoveralongperiodoftime,butonlyundercertainconditionsitcouldbeconvertedintodemographicdividend.Comparedtotheincreasingpopulationquantity,itwillbemoreeffectiveandsustainableforChinaseconomicgrowthbyimprovingpopulationquality,developinghumanresourcesatallagesandpar2ticipatingintotheglobaleconomy.ThebeliefthatChinacouldonlysustainitsdevelopmentbymain2tainingalargeandcheaplaborforceandthereforeChinasbirthrateshouldbeincreasedisamis2understandingoftheseriouspopulationsituationinChinaandisdetrimentaltoChina’seconomicstructuretransition.Adjustingpopulationpolicyisessentialforbuildingaharmonioussociety,butithasnothingtodowiththedemographicdividend.Keywords:DemographicDividend,EconomicGrowth,LaborForce,PopulationQualityAuthor:WangYingisAssociateProfessorofSchoolofManagement,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing,100875,Email:[e-mail];TongJianisfromSchoolofManagement,BeijingNormalUniversity;JiangZhenghuaisFormerViceChiefoftheNationalPeople’sCongressCommittee.529120101,,,2,,,,,510,,,,,,????,,,22.11998,(1998),DavidE.Bloomdemographicgift,3,DavidE.Bloom,demographicdividend,4,,(2007):,,,,,,,,5,:;62.2,,,,,,(PopulationOpportunityWindow),,:,,,,;,,,,;,,,,3034,,,:,,,,,,,2,,7,,,,,,,,,833.1,:,,,,20105,1559201320219.26,2400,,10009,,,,,,,,,,,2030,,,,,,,19652003,19551973,GDP9.22%19732000,,GDP2.81%;20012002,-0.3%-0.5%1019872025,19621991,GDP8.48%,199120007.18%11,,1950240380050017871/3,,53112,,,,,3.2:;,3.2.1,,,,,,,,30,,GDP27%13,19782003,10.6%,,1978198512.9%199020034.5%;63%,26.2%1420022005,72.44%,7.79%,14.22%,5.55%15,,,,,16,,,,,,;,,,,4,,3.2.2,2007,2006,(27.2%),,,GDP,,,GDP,,,,2003(52.9%),,19601970GDP9.4%,49.1%;19701980GDP4.5%,47.1%;19902000GDP32341.5%,49%207060,;9060,17,10,,,4,,,,,4.1,,,10,,0.5,5.1,,13,,,,,,19,,2025,57,,,,,18,,,;;;,,;,4.2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.51.7,1,2035,4.3,,,,,,,,200245332002,:,,;19,,,,,,,;;,;,4.4,,,,,,,5,,213050810,1300160018203015,,1564201610.1,5200815649.55,24499,,,,,,:,,,,,:,,,,;,5,,,/References:12010.://news.sohu.com/s2010/1138/s270549935/2..,2004;2:37CaiFang.2004.DemographicTransition,PopulationDividendandSustainabilityofEconomicGrowth.PopulationRe2search2:3-7.3DavidE.BloomandJeffreyG.1998.Williamson.DemographicTransitionsandEconomicMiraclesinEmergingAsia.TheWorldBankEconomicReview12:16-25.34344DavidE.Bloom,DavidCanning,andJaypeeSevilla.2003.TheDemographicDividend:ANewPerspectiveontheEco2nomicConsequencesofPopulationChange.RAND;56-78.5..,2007:2326ResearchGroupofChinasPopulationDevelopmentStrategy.2007.ReportonChinasPopulationDevelopmentStrate2gy.ChinaPopulationPublishingHouse:23-26.6,..,2009;2:5657ZhongShuiyingandLiKui.2009.LiteratureReviewofRelationshipbetweenDemographicDividendandEconomicGrowth.Population&Economics2:56-57.7,..,2006;3:1416WangFengandAndrewMason.2006.DemographicFactorsofChinasEconomicRestructuring.ChineseJournalofPopulationScience3:14-16.8..,2007-1030YeWenzhen.2007.ObjectiveUnderstandingofDemographicDividend.FujianDaily,October,30.9..:,2010:7887ProjectGroupofResearchCenterofChinasPopulationandDevelopment.2010.TrendsandAssessmentofChangesinChina’sLaborForce.Beijing:CollectedPapersofConsultationofChinasPopulationandDevelopment:78-87.10.:.(),2008;38:3842MuGuangzong.2008.ChinasDemographicDividend:ReconsiderationandProspect.JournalofZhejiangUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciencesEdition)38:38-42.11..,2007;4:2532YinWenyao.2007.OntheDemographicEffectandtheDemographicDividend.Market&DemographicAnalysis4:25-32.12..,2007;9:718ZhouZhuping.2007.DemographicDividend,LewisTurningPointandEconomicGrowth.ChinaBookReview9:7-18.13..://finance.jrj.com.cn/people/2010/01/1615236818835.shtml14.?.,2008;1:1721SunZiduo.2008.HasChinaEnteredtheLewisTurningPointYet?DemographicDividendofEconomicGrowth.E2conomist1:17-21.15,..,2007;9:811WangWenjuandFanHejun.2007.EmpiricalAnalysisofContributionofChinasMarketizationtoEconomyGrowth.ChinaIndustrialEconomy9:8-11.16...,2007WangPeizhi.2007.InternationalEconomics.Beijing:SciencePress.17.:.,2009;8:1622HuangRunlong.2009.QuestioningDemographicDividend:ExaggeratedRelationshipbetweenPopulationandEco2nomic.ModernEconomicResearch8:16-22.18..,2006;6:46.JiangZhenghua.2006.ThinkingofPopulationPoliciesinNewPeriod.ChineseJournalofPopulationScience6:4-6.19..:,2003:103123GerontologicalSocietyofChina.2003.TowardsAnActiveAgingSociety.Beijing:HualingPress:103-123.(::2010-06)