关于我国财政收支增长与经济增长的实证分析

:1008-1658(2000)04-0058-06(,100085):,:,,,,,:;;:F22:A,,;;,,;,,,,1,,19781132.26,1997,8651.14[1]207.6,10.7%19783624.1,199774772.4,20.6,16.3%[1]():,,,,[1]:(1983,1990,19961997)(GDP),(GDP),(GDP)197831.24%199711.57%:2000-07-13:(1970-),,,,,154200012JournalofBeijingInstituteofMachineryVol.15No.4Dec.2000,1978,10.171997582.42[1],(GDP),80199380,30%40%50%![2],,1978199720,3,33,,33,3;,,,,,,,,,(GDP),:(CAIR)=905.5022+0.09919(GDP)+0.563277AR(1)(1)(25.2253)(2.4527)R2=0.9936;(DW)=1.12445;F=1313.818;(SMPL)=19781997:(CAIR);(GDP),(GDP)(CAIR),(GDP)(CAIR)(GDP)(CAIR),0.09919,991.90.563277,,(GDP),(GDP),(GDP)(CAIR)=477.102+0.770(T1)+2.237(T2)+5.877(T3)+4.075(WJ1)-2.917(WJ2)(2)(6.243)(2.972)(3.671)(1.452)(-1.705)R2=0.998;(DW)=1.899;F=2023.754;(SMPL)=19781997:(CAIR);(T1);(T2);(T3);(WJ1);(WJ2)(2)1:,30.770,2.2375.877,,,,,954:,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(GDP),,,,1994,(GDP),,197886.98%,199740%,71.15%[3],,,[2],,,,,,,,,,2,,19781122.09,1997,9233.56[1]208.2,11.11%[1],,06151978,(GDP)30.96%[1];1995,11.67%[1]1996,(GDP),197847.42%,198054.96%,199627.10%[1],,,,,(GDP),L(GDP)=4.0175+0.8876L(CAIU)+0.9596AR(1)(3)(3.3535)(14.5319)R2=0.9936;(DW)=1.12445;F=1313.818;(SMPL)=19781997(CAIU)=908.4899+0.1074(GDP)+0.4965AR(1)(4)(33.9108)(2.3004)R2=0.9953;(DW)=1.2614;F=1766.121;(SMPL)=19781997(CAIU)=-220.902+0.9932(CAIR)+2.2576(WJ)(5)(31.6369)(3.1163)R2=0.9994;(DW)=1.7583;F=15014.81;(SMPL)=19781997:(CAIU);L(GDP);L(CAIU);(WJ)(3):(GDP),1%,(GDP)0.8876%,,,(4):(GDP),(GDP)1,0.1074(5):1,0.9932,1%,2.2576,,19291933,,,,,,,,164:,,,,,,,:,19784.71%0.99%199514.6%5.35%[3]20,,3/4,,197846.08%199711.04%[1]3,,19780.99%198114%,19975.98%[1],,,,;,,,,,,,,3:,,,,,,,:,,(GDP),,,2615,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,:[1].[M].:,1998.[2].[M].:,1998.[3],.[M].:,1998.QUANTITATIVEANALYSISONTHEGROWTHOFOURFINA2NCIALINCOMEANDEXPENSESANDECONOMICGROWTHWANGBin(SchoolofBusiness,BeijingInstituteofMachinery,Beijing100085,China)Abstract:Thegrowthofourfinancialincomeandexpensesandthegrowthofeconomyarecloselyrelated.Theproblemsaboutthegrowthofourfinancialincomeandexpensesandeconomicgrowthareanalyzedwiththemethodofeconometric.Theresultshowsthatthereisanexplicitrelation2shipbetweenthescaleofourfinancialincomeandexpensesandeconomicgrowth.Becauseofourincompletefinancialsystemandunscientificstructureofourfinancialexpenses,thegrowthofourfinancialincomelaggedbehindthatofeconomyandweakenedthefunctionsoffinancialpolicyinmacroeconomiccontrol.Somecountermeasuresontheoption,adjustmentandexertionofourfi2nancialpolicyareputforward.Keywords:thegrowthofeconomy;financial;financialincomeandexpenses364: