区域经济体可计算一般均衡模型的研究与应用

200855:100026788(2008)05200552091,2,1(11,410081;21,410082):(CGE),,;,CGE,;(SAM);,.:CGE;;SAM;:F06115:AAresearchandapplicationofCGEanalysisofadistrictLIKe1,MaChao2qun2,GeLing1(11CollegeofMathematics&Computer,HunanNormalUniversity,Changsha410081,China;21CollegeofBusinessAdministration,HunanUniversity,Changsha410082,China)Abstract:Thispaperintroducedadistrictcomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)modelforChinawhichshowedtheeconomiccharacteristicofadistrict,anditcananalysissomeissues,suchaseconomicgrowth,thechangeofeconomicstructureandthepricefluctuationofproductresources.ThisarticleelaboratedthisCGE-modelanditsmainequations,andanalyzeditscharacterfromtheaspectoftaxandtrade.Also,wepresentedthestructureofitssocialaccountingmatrix(SAM).Finally,wederivedthemodel,whichshowedtheimpactionofoilpricefluctuationtotheeconomicdevelopmentofHunan.Keywords:CGEmodel;districteconomic;SAM;policysimulation:2006212207:(06YB21);(06BJY044):(1980-),(),,,:;(1963-),(),,,:,;(1982-),(),,,:.1Johansen1960CGE,2080,CGE,.CGE,CGE,,CGE.,,CGE,[1][2][3][4][5][6],.CGE(counterfact),,.,CGE(Willenbockel,1999;Gingsburgh,1994)[3,7],CGE(Bourguignon,Branson&Melo,1992)[8].CGE.(ZhuangJuzhong,1996;Xu,1996)[9,10].(1999)1995CGE,CGEDRC2CGE[11].DRC2CGEPRCGEM[12],.,,CGE,CGE,.DuYuming(2003)CGE[13].(2004)(PDRCGE)[14].(2005)()CGE,[15].,,CGE,CGE.,,,.2CGE211CGECGE,,[1416].:;,,;,;.CGE2.,.;,.,CGE,.5,.,,,.212.-,.CES,:.,(,),,.Welsch&Hoster(1995)(2004).(Xie,2000)[17],.,CES.(1)(2),-.(3),,CES.KEi=1kei1-X,iX,iKE,iPkeliPkeiX,iXi(1)Ldi=1li1-X,i(1-KE,i)X,iPkeliWiX,iXi(2)6520085Pkeli=X,iKE,iPke1-X,iikei+(1-KE,i)X,iW1-X,iili11-X,i(3),KEi,Ldi,Pkeli22,Pkei,Xi,Wi.2133:()()..,;,..ELES,;,LES,Armington,,.,,,,.,.(4),.(5)(6).,;.(),().(7)(9).EnVTaxi=PXiXi-iIntiPQivai1+vai(4)GR=EnTax+IndTax+Tariff+HhTax-ExSub(5)GRH=CTax+GRu(6)EnSav=keiYKi+GtoEn-EnTax-IndTax-EntoH(7)HHSav=impsiYHi(1-htaxi)(8)GovSav=GRH-GdTot-GtoEn-GtoH(9),EnVTaxi,PXi,Inti,PQj,GR,EnTax,IndTax,Tariff,HhTaxi,ExSub(),GRH,CTaxi,EnSav,YKi,GtoEn,EntoH,HHSav,YHi(i=1,;i=2,),GovSav,GdTot,GtoH.214[14,15]Armington.();,,.(Qi)(AMi)(Di),755(10).(11)Armington,(PDi)(PAMi)CES.,(AEi),(PAEi)CET,(12)(13).Qi=m,i[m,iAM-mii+(1-m,i)D-mii]-1-mi(10)PQi=[miPD1-amii+amiPAM1-amii]-11-ami(11)Xi=e,i[e,iAE-eii+(1-e,i)D-eii]-1-ei(12)PXi=[rdiPD1+aeii+raeiPAE1+aeii]11+aei(13)215,,;;,.216,.,,(14)..(,tradablegoods),,.,.(15)(17).,..,,.Invest=Saving(14)FSav=ERSf+Sp(15)PWMiMi=PWEiEi+Sf(16)Sp=PDMiDMi-PDEiDEi(17):Invest,Saving,FSav,ER,Sf,Sp,PWMi,Mi,PWEi,Ei,PDEi,PDMi,DEi,DMi.217,.,,..(18)(KST)(DEP),(Invest).(19)(21)(ki,liei),,TFP,,gnTFP,gxn(x).(CD),(22),,gcd,grgdpnGDP.KSTn=KSTn-1-Depn+Investn(18)ki,n=ki,n-1(1+gn)(1+gkn)(19)8520085li,n=li,n-1(1+gn)(1+gln)(20)ei,n=ei,n-1(1+gn)(1+gen)(21)CDn=CDn-1(1+gcd)(1-grgdpn)(22)1.1xi(x)(ke:;l:)aeiKE,iCESamigdtmihtaxi(htax2=0)eikex,impsivairaeiCETm,iCESrdiCETe,iCESum,iCESamiCESe,iCESmiCES3SAM(SAM).SAM(),,(,2006)[18].SAM,,.SAM10:()()().2.SAM,[19].4CGECGE,,,..,SAM.SAM,,(),:=,,:maxz=vjXj9550620085165s.t.AX+Y+U-VXXlXXhwjXjWiiWiW0UiUhi0ViVhiYlYUj-VjcX0,U0,V0(23):X,Y,U,V,X;Y,;U;V;A;vj;wj;W;Xl,Xh;Vhi,Uhi;c.W.,200214681063P.SAM3..,5%10%20%40%50%100%,GDP01029%01053%01091%01124%01138%01154%.,,,..5CGE,,,,,CGECGE,,2002,CGEGDP.CGE,(SAM).,.,,SAM(SAM).,CGESAM.,CGESAM.:[1]XuD.Thetransitionprocessfromplanningtomarkets:ACGEanalysisofChineseeconomy[D].UniversityofPittsburgh,1990.56-79.[2]RichardF,Garbaccio.PricereformandstructuralchangeintheChineseeconomy:PolicysimulationusingaCGEmodel[J].ChinaEconomicReviews,1994,6(1):1-34.[3]WillenbockelD.Dynamicappliedgeneralequilibriumtradepolicyanalysisinthepresenceofforeignassetcross2ownership[J].EconomicModeling,1999,16:371-388.[4]BhattaraiK,WhalleyJ.GeneralequilibriummodellingofUKtaxpolicy[C]PPDisscussionPaperofMacroeconomicModellingandEconomicPolicyCambridge:MITPress,1998,136-174.[5]JansenH.Inducedinstitutionalchangeinthetradeandenvironmentdebate[J].EnvironmentalandResourceEconomics,2001,18:149-172.2620085[6]XiaShi.ModelingtheChineseeconomy:Inageneralequilibriumframework[D].StanfordUniversity,1991.[7]GinsburghV.IntheCournot2WalrasGeneralEquilibriummodel:theymaybemoretogainbychangingthenumerairethanbyeliminatingimperfection:Atwo2goodeconomyexample.AppliedGeneralEquilibriumandEconomicDevelopment:PresentAchievementsandFutureTrends,1994.[8]BourguignonF,BransonWH,MeloDJ.Adjustmentandincomedistribution:Amicromodelforcounterfactualanalysis[J].JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,1992,38:17-39.[9]ZhuangJZ.EstimatingdistortionsintheChineseeconomy:Ageneralequilibriumapproach[J].Economica,1996,63:543-568.[10]XuD.Thechasminthetransition:ACGEanalysisofChineseeconomicreform[J].JournalofPolicyModeling,1996,18(2):117-139.[11],.[C]PP:,1999.WangHJ,etal.ThemacroeconomicmodelsofChina[C]PPBeijing:ChinaFinancialandEconomicPublishingHouse,1999.[12],,.CGE:()[J].,1998(12):39-47.FanMT,ZhengYX,MaG.ACGEmodelsofChina:Thestructureandsomequestions[J].TheJournalofQuantitative&TechnicalEconomics,1998(12):39-47.[13]DuYM,YeAZ.Thequantitativeanalysisoftheinfluenceonnationaleconomyofonecountrybyinternationaltradeandinternationalcapitalmovement[C]PPLanHua,eds