基础设施规模与经济增长_基于需求角度的分析

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1989),60%70%,,0.4,Fernald(1999)RollerWaverman(2001)Duggal(2007),,(2000),198119980.55,0.65,,,??815900233:27250100:[phone]:[e-mail]()[e-mail]()©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1)KoshiMajumdar(2000)(DEA)2219801995,,(2)GDPFay(2001),20002005FayYepes(2003),147,20002010(3),,NadiriMamuneas(1996)7%,9%,,Shah(1992),(2006)(2007),,GMM2090(2006),(2007)2000200531,GDP,15,,,,,,;,:;,,;,,;()(1994,),:;:;:,:,Fernald(1999),91590023©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()(GDP735)(736GDP2935)(2936GDP9075)(GDP9076):2004,,(),,,,,p,(F1,F2,F3,Fn)F1,VAR(F1),F2,200415(2),2004,Pearson,5%SPSS13.0,199020002004,34,:()()(),,,,90,2000,,,2004,,,,,02590023:,Pearson,1990,,[0]©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(%)KMOBartlett19903PWENMLCEITRDRAWPSA91.350.624020003WPSAPWENRARDMLCEIT91.270.752020043WPSAMLPWENCEITRDRA90.510.72804(1990)(2000)(2004)IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII(WP)0.3630.3520.7610.8020.4370.1100.8620.323-0.024(SA)0.3000.1510.9010.9080.244-0.0850.8560.4330.067(PW)0.8460.3390.3550.7390.4180.4880.3360.9120.158(EN)0.8160.3800.3940.7030.4440.5280.4040.8860.201(RD)0.1620.9370.1060.0130.0210.957-0.1590.2750.847(RA)0.1170.8690.2940.134-0.0390.9490.4650.0620.822(ML)0.6450.5380.5020.5950.7290.2590.5520.6290.440(CE)0.8650.1290.2900.4770.831-0.0480.7830.4080.390(IT)0.969-0.0210.1470.2280.885-0.0370.5190.6230.469:KaiserE:456(),GDP,,FayYepes(2003),(MDGs),AlesinaPerotti(1996)Sanchez-Robles(1998),,,,:(ITI,)(TFI,)(RI,):Fi=ni=1WitXitXitt,Witti,n12590023(unitcosts)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(j/3i=1i),:Inf=(i/3i=1i)Fi,,,,2004,,2004,()(1)1GDP:2005,SummersHeston(2006),,,5,5512345:,22590023:2004,,3,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()2004,2000930,20072280,661.9840.3221.4682.7420.4731.0663.2522.1190.1143.3131.0960.4203.8734.5671.4043.9963.2651.8954.2362.2643.2364.3171.7781.3975.7362.1544.0353.7172.0041.671:2004(),,,,,2004,,,2007,3000,,,6,2020,(2000)(10000),,32590023©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()RollerWaverman(2001),T,:Yt=f(T,INFRt,Lt,Kt)(1),YtINFRtLtKtt(YT/POPT),:INFRt=g(Yt/POPt,INFRt-1)(2)(It),:INFRt-INFRt-1=m(It)(3)(1)(3):It=H(Yt/POPt,INFRt,INFRt-1,Kt,Lt,T),(K)(L),FayYepes(2003),,,,,,,(autoregressivedistributedlagmodel,ADL)lnIt=0+si=1ilnIt-i+mj=0cjINFRt-j+1lngdpt+2lnindt+3lnui+i,gdp,ind,uGDP()19802007,GDP(),AEG,AEG,7,,,42590023:1980©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2.92)333(2.87)333(2.40)33(2.19)33(2.44)33(2.31)33(2.44)33-10.920.500.14-0.130.902.010.39(2.69)33(3.13)333(2.07)3(1.95)3(2.06)3(2.31)33(2.57)33-12.840.410.13-0.111.272.050.35(2.99)333(2.35)33(1.74)31.33(2.66)33(2.24)3(2.15)3-11.150.530.06-0.030.971.950.32(2.66)33(3.21)3330.970.42(1.95)3(2.13)33(1.88)3:t;310%,335%,3331%;AEG-3.20-3.08-2.73-3.66,5%5%10%5%;R20.998,,,GDP,GDP1%1.09%,GDP,9%,GDP,,,,1%,0.46%(),,:I,,1990,GDP5.7%0.3%,20202004II,,,,2000,GDP8%0.5%,20202004III,,GDP4%0.2%,2000,882.104.6017.8849.10109.47---I2.044.9017.3249.93103.77310.98685.611265.28II2.044.9017.3249.93103.77358.731151.663098.13III2.044.9017.3249.93103.77289.56504.45638.04:52590023©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,2004,,15%24%,GDP,,;,:(2006):,3(2006):,5(1994):(),(2007):?,3Alesina,A.andPerotti,R.IncomeDistribution,PoliticalInstabilityandInvestment.EuropeanEconomicReview,June1996,pp.1203-1228.Aschauer,DavidA.IsPublicExpenditureProductive?JournalofMonetaryEconomics,1989,2(23),pp.177-200.Duggal,VijayaG.;Saltzman,CynthiaandKlein,LawrenceR.InfrastructureandProductivity:aNonlinearApproach.JournalofEconome2tircs,2007,140,pp.485-502.Fay,Marianne.FinancingtheFuture:InfrastructureNeedsinLatinAmerica,2000-05.PolicyResearchworkingpaper,February2001.Fernald,JohnG.RoadstoProsperity?AssessingtheLinkBetweenPublicCapitalandProductivity.AmericanEconomicReview,Jun1999,pp.619-638.Koshi,HeliA.andMajumdar,SumitK.ConvergenceinTelecommunicationsInfrastructureDevelopmentinOECDCountries.InformationE2conomicsandPolicy,2000(12),pp.111-131.Nadiri,M.IshaqandMamuneas,P.Theofanis.PublicR&DPoliciesandCostBehavioroftheUSManufacturingIndustries.JournalofPub2licEconomics,December1996,pp,57-81.Roller,Lars-HendrikandWaverman,Leonard.TelecommunicationsInfrastructureandEconomicDevelopment:ASimultaneousApproach.AmericanEconomicReview,Sept.2001,pp.909-923.Sanchez-Robles,B.InfranstructureInvestmentandGrowth:SomeEmpiricalEvidence.ContemporaryEconomicPolicy,January1998,pp.98-108.