宏观经济政策对我国产出_失业关系的影响分析

2010年第12期20*(:09AJL001)985!∀[]20101122[],,,;,,,#,GDPGDP1978,∃:,,,(,2003),,,(,2004)(转下页)%*方福前1,孙永君2(1.,100872;2.,116025)[]宏观经济政策;产出;失业[]近年来,在我国产出(GDP)持续增长的同时,失业率也在逐渐上升本文从政府宏观调控旨在实现经济增长充分就业物价稳定和国际收支平衡等目标出发,以1998年和2008年实施的两轮积极的财政政策为例,说明我国宏观经济政策在促进就业增长方面的不足,进而认为在我国这样一个劳动力资源丰富的国家,政府在制定宏观经济政策促进经济增长的同时,应采取积极有效措施,努力促进就业的增加[]F12316[]A[]02572826(2010)12002008(GDP),30,,,,,,11978GDP[1]-[5]1,20,#,∃1995,2010年第12期219.59%,5.81%,3%,1%[6],,[7],[8]-[14]1,%,,10,(接上页),,,,(2001),1985554%,1999159%(2003),,(2004),,,(2004),,,,,(2001),50%,(2003),(2004)199720008.1%,(2004),,,,,,,,(2004),,,11978%2008GDP,%,,,,,,%,,,,,1.,,1,GDP2010年第12期2219851989,,2090,GDP19972007,,GDP,,,30GDP,2.,,21985(CPI)2,2090,90,2010CPI3%,,,CPI3%;2011,1988%19891994%199521985%20083.,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,31997,31997%20084.4,2090,,,2010年第12期2341978%2008,,,,,,,,,,;,,19982008,,,14,,,,1998:19988,1000,1998,2700,1999,500600,2000,1000,500,2001,:;;,1500,1000,500,2008,,,,4,:;;;;;;;;,,1200;,,,2008,,,2010年第12期24#,5,1990,[18]-[20]#,,1978,(2003),(2003),(2004)∃,,:1958,,3,1960,32.3,195731200,462.9%,,1978,,580,,()&,,,30;,:,800,,,,,?()∋,?,,,,,,,51978%2008,,,1.:19991999∃,,,,,,1999,,20%,47%,153,&,,∋?2000,107,200120021141452003,200(212),,2009600(611),2010630200987%,,2010年第12期25,,20101200##∃://politics.people.com.cn/GB/30178/9263236.html,,,,,,,,,,,,,2.:20052005721,:,;18.276518.11,2%;,,0.3%,;,,,,,,2006,,,,,,,,2080,,,,,2090,,,,GDP60%,1985,200638.7%,GDP19782006,21.9,0.8∃,,,,30,,,200730,35.4%,198552%17,30&,;2010年第12期26,,,,,?,,,,[21],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,1.,,,,,,,,2.,,,,,,,3.,,,,,,,:[1].[J].,2003,(5).[2].:[J].,2004,(3).[3].:[J].,2001,(2).[4].[J].,2003,(11).[5],.[J].,2004,(7).[6]Okun.A.,PotentialGNP:ItsMeasurementandSignificance[A].InAmericanStatisticalAssociation,ProceedingsoftheBusinessandEconomicsStatisticsSection,1962;reprintedwithslightchangesinArthurM.Okun,ThePoliticalEconomyofProsperity[C].Washington,D.C.:BrookingsInstitution,1970.[7]MankiwG.Macroeconomics[M].6thedition.WorthPublishers,2006.[8]PrachownyMFJ.OkunsLaw:TheoreticalFoundationsandRevisedEstimates[J].TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,1993,75(2).[9]WenerCE.CyclicalOutput,CyclicalUnemployment,andOkunsCoefficient:ANew2010年第12期27Approach[J].JournalofAppliedEconometrics,1995,10(4).[10]AttfieldF.andSilverstoneB.OkunsCoefficient:AComment[J].TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,1997,79(2).[11]LeeJ.TheRobustnessofOkunsLaw:EvidencefromOECDCountries[J].JournalofComparativeEconomics,2000,(22).[12]VirenM.TheOkuncurveisnonlinear[J].EconomicsLetters,2001,(70).[13]CuaresmaC.OkunsLawRevisited[J].OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,2003,(65).[14]SilvapulleP.,MoosaI.andSilvapulleM.AsymmetryinOkunsLaw[J].TheCanadianJournalofEconomics/RevueCanadiennedEconomique,2004,37(2).[15].[J].,2003,(6).[16].[J].,2005,(6).[17],.[J].,2007,(6).[18],.%%%[J].,2003,(2).[19],.K[J].,2003,(7).[20],.:1952%2000[J].,2004,(10).[21]OkunA.EqualityandEfficiency:TheBigTradeoff[M].BrookingsInstitutionPress,1975.TheInfluenceofMacroeconomicPoliciesontheOutputUnemploymentRelationFANGFuqian1,SUNYongjun2(1.SchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872,China;2.SchoolofFinanceandTaxation,DongbeiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Dalian,Liaoning116025,China)[Keywords]macroeconomicpolicy;output;unemployment[Abstract]Inrecentyears,ChinasunemploymentrateisgraduallyrisingalongwiththecontinuousgrowthofGDP.TheaimofmacrocontrolhasbeenrealizationofChinaseconomicgrowth,fullemployment,stablepriceandbalancedinternationalpayments.Withthisasthepointofdeparture,thepaperdiscussesthedefectsofChinasmacroeconomicpolicieswithrespecttopromotingemploymentaccordingtotheresultsoftworoundsofimplementationofpositivefinancialpoliciesin1998and2008.ThepaperholdsthatChinaisacountrywithrichhumanresources.Whilemakingmacroeconomicpoliciestoincreaseeconomicdevelopmentthegovernmentshouldtakeeffectivemeasurestocreatemoreemploymentopportunities.[]