宏观经济政策的跨期权衡分析

2811Vol128No111200611ForeignEconomies&ManagementNov.2006:F06311:A:100124950(2006)1120001O1120061,2(1.,361005;2.,361005):2006O10O25:(1963-),,,;(1980-),,:2006,;,:;;;2006109,(EdmundS.Phelps),(analysisofintertemporaltradeoffs),(1999)(2001),,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1933(Evanston),1955,1959,1971,,?,,,1939,,:,,;,1951,,,(JamesNelson)(ArnoldCol2lery),,,,,,,,,(JamesTobin)(ThomasSchelling),(A.Okun),,,(WilliamFellner)(Henry2Wallich),,,,,,19596,,,,,,,,,,1960,,,,1961:,1956,,19621963,,,,,,,(F.F.Modigliani),,,,,,,1966,,,102060,,1967,,,(J.G.Dunlop),,,,(Sargan):,196719681971,,,19693,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1971,,,,,,19691970,,,,,1974,(statisticaldiscrimination),,(JohnTaylor)(GuillermoCalvo),,,,,,10,,,,,,,(RomanFrydman)2080,,1990,,208090,,19851986,,,,,,4,,,,,,,,,1994:,,19939,,,,1995,,20:,;,;,,,,:,,,,,,,206070,,()1958,(A.W.Pillips)18611957,,205060,,,,,,,,,,,,,2060,6070,,5,:,,,,2060,,,,,:=f(u)+e,f0,,,,,,,,,,,,(1),,e=-1e0,u0,AB,u1,1u0,e01,CD,CDu1,2,,,,,1:,,19671968,,,,,,,,6,,1968,,,,,,,,,,2090,-,,1972,,,,,,,,,,,2080(),2060,,,,,,,,1970,,(Winter),,,,,,,,,1972,,,,1969:,,7,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,1968,,,2070,,,,,,2080,,,,,70,:(1972),,,,,,,,()1956,,:,,,;,,,,1961,,,8,,,,,,,,:,,1961,,,,,,,s:Ct=(1-s)f(s)egt,f(s)=F(sf(s)g,N0),,,Ct:-f(s)egt+(1-s)f(s)egt=0,:s1-s=f(s)sf(s)f(s)=Fkf(s)g+Fksgf(s),,f(s)sf(s)=a1-a,a=Fk(K0,N0)K0P0,s=a,,,:,,,,,,,,,,:,,1968(Pollak),,,,,,,,(),9,1966,(RichardNelson),,,,:,,IT,,,,:,,,,,1972(,),,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,205060,2070,,,,,,,,,01,,,,,,,,,,6090,,,,,,,,,,:[1];,.()[M].:,1999.[2],.[J].,2002,(6):83-88.[3]J.,;,.()[M].:,2000.[4],,;,.()[M].:,2004.[5]N.;.()[M].:,2000[6]EdmundSPhelps.Thegoldenruleofaccumulation:afableforgrowthmen[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1961,51(9):638-643.[7]Phelps,ES.Phillipscurves,expectationsofinflationandoptimalunemploymentovertime[J].Economica,1967,34:254-281.[8]EdmundSPhelps.Inflationpolicyandunemploymenttheory[M].NewYork:Norton,1972.[9]EdmundSPhelps.Studiesinmacroeconomictheory[M].NewYork:AcademicPress,1979.[10]EdmundSPhelps(withJeanOPaulFitoussi).TheslumpinEurope:reconstructingopeneconomytheory[M].NewYork:Blackwell,1988.[11]EdmundSPhelps.Sevenschoolsofmacroeconomicthought:theArneRydememoriallectures[M].NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,1990.[12]EdmundSPhelps.Recentdevelopmentsinmacroeconomics[R].EdwardElgar,1991.[13]EdmundSPhelps.Alifeineconomics[A].ArnoldHeertje(Ed.).Themakersofmoderneconomics(Vol.II)[C].EdwardElgar,1995.[14]EdmundSPhelps.Theoriginsandfurtherdevelopmentofthenaturalrateofunemployment[A].RodCross(Ed.).Thenatu2ralrateofunemployment,reflectionson25yearsofthehypothesis[C].Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,1995.[15]PAghion,RFrydman,JStiglitz,andMWoodford.Knowledge,information,andexpectationsinmodernmacroeco2nomics:inHonorofEdmundSPhelps[M].Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,2003.[16]Nelson,R,andEPhelps.Investmentsinhumans,technologicaldiffusionandeconomicgrowth[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1966,56:69-75.[17]TheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciences.EdmundPhelpsscontributionstomacroeconomics[R].Oct.2006.[18]TheRoyalSwedishAcademyofSciences.Theprizeineconomicsciences2006[R].Oct.2006.(:)11