政府社会保障支出的社会经济效应及其政策含义

6920079()JournalofGuangzhouUniversity(SocialScienceEdition)Vol.6No.9Sep.2007:2007204228:(19702),,,,,(,100836):,,,,,,,,,,:;;;:F015:A:16712394X(2007)0920036206,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1],,,,,,,,,;,,,,[1],,,,,,,,1929,,,20[2],,,,,,,,,,:,,11994,,,,[3]2,,,;;,,,,,,,,,,;,;11999[3]1994()(AFDC)16454%,(SSI)267872255732387169:U.SDepartmentofCommerce,StatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates,115thedition,pp381,1995.2[3]1965()1994()19357323196,1/21965014471935111292,191798150193749451969014:Rosen,HarveyS.,PublicFinance,4thedition,IRWIN.,pp196,1995.,,,739:,,,,,,,,,,()[4],,(),:,;,,,,,,,,1000,500;1500,30010001500,(1000+500)(1500+300),300,,,,10001500,5003001,,;,,()AB;a,,E,E,OC(AC),OD1,,OM,,:GF(OM=BF),,a2,E,,,ODOL,OCOJ,ACAJ,(EE),(ACAJ),,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,SrSp,WrWp,W,S0:S0=SrWrW+SpWpW,Wt83()20076,S,S=SrWr-WtW+SpWp+WtW=SrWrW+SpWpW+-SrWtW+SpWtW=S0+Sp-SrWrW,SrSp,:Sp-SrWrW0(),,2006,1978-1998,:,200621978-1998(),(),,,,,,,,;,,[5],,,(),[6]Y=ANKG(1),Y,A,N,K,G,,:lnY=lnA+lnN+lnK+lnG+u(2)1978-19981978,,:lnY=-5.19(-2.89)+0.33lnN(1.32)+1.10lnK(9.18)-0.09lnG(-0.63)(3)R2=0.994…R2=0.993F=975.7,R2,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,(),939:,1.,,,,,,2.,,,,,,,3.,,,,,,,,,,,,,2070,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.,,30%,15%30%,5%,1993012%,,3,,2000192213712110%,,,15%20%,,,:,,31991-1995[7](%)225510(1993)101515202030304040505004()20076,,,,,,,,,2.,,:,;,,,,,,3.,,,,,,[1].[M].:,1999.[2].[M].:,1983.[3]A,B.[M].:,1987.[4].[M].:,2001.[5].[M].:,2000.[6]ASCHAUER,ALAND.TheEquilibriumApproachtoFiscalPolicy[J].JournalofMoney,CreditandBanking,1988(20):41262.[7].1996[M].:,1997.[]OnsocialeconomiceffectofsocialsecurityexpenditureanditsimplicationasapolicyYUChangge(EconomyResearchInstituteofChinaSocialSciencesAcademy,Beijing100836,China)Abstract:Asanimportantsocialdistributionmechanismconcerningthebasicrightofhumanexistence,hu2mancivilizationandsocialprogress,socialsecuritysystemhasbeenestablishedandimprovedgraduallyworldwide.Meanwhilethesocialsecurityexpenditureofthegovernmentisbecominganimportantpartofthegovernmentbudg2et.Thishascausedwideconcernofthepeopleandmanyscholarshavemaderesearchofthissubject.Thepresentpaperoffersatheoreticalanalysisofsocialsecurityexpenditureforthepurposeofreachingacorrectunderstandingofitspositionandfunctioninsocialdevelopment.Keywords:governmentexpenditure;socialsecurity;economicgrowth;socialdevelopment149: