有限赶超与经济增长3

3:,Hausmannetal(2005),,112()19652005,,,:3,,,:[e-mail];(),,:100871,:[e-mail],(08JBL013)(2007U01219),MartinFeldsteinKenLeeKeithMarkus2(20068)2007(2007)NBER2CCER,21,,(,2005;,2006),,,(Hausmannetal,2005;Rodrik,2006;,2008;,2008),,,,,,,,(,2006),,,,(Leontief,1953;Trefler,1993)70,,,(Krugman,1980),,,,30,(2008)(1994),9220088,,,,,(,2005),:,,,,(,2008b),,,,,,,,,,,,,:(1994),20,,,,,,,Krugman(1990),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,z,z,z;,()()Krugman(1990),,z3z3,z,,zz3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,z,03:,222(DixitandNorman,1980),,,zc,zc,,,,(LimitedCatch2upIndex,LCI)Hausmannetal.(2005),,,,112()19652005,()LCI,LCIGDP,LCIGDP;(),(),,;,,,,(),,GDP4,:;;,;(LCI)(TechnologicalSophisticationIndex,TSI)Michaely(1984),TSIGDP,,(2002),Hausmannetal.(2005)(2006),,,TSI,()19652005,112(),112()90%,85%90%,GDPLCI,,19652000WorldTradeFlow(Feenstraetal.,2005),SITCRev.2,1000,,,,Feenstraetal.(2005)20012005(COMTRADE),HS,,1320088,,,,,,,11210,,,,,LCI,LCI,,LCIGDP,19652000PWT611,Hestonetal.(2002)20012005GGDC(2006),GDPGDP()(LCI)LCIHausmannetal.(2005),j,l,xjljl,YjjGDP,jXj=lxjl,HausmannGlG:TSIHl=jxjlPXjj(xjlPXj)Yj,HHausmann(2006),,,,,Hausmann(TechnologicalContentIndex,TCI):TCIHj=lxjlXjTSIHl,,,,TCI,TCI,TCI,GDP,GDP12000,TCIHGDP,TCI,23:lj(xjlPXj)P(xlPX),xll,X,,(2006)20012003GDP(PPP)HumanDevelopmentReport(200520042003):MalawiUnitedRep.ofTanzaniaBurundiMadagascarNigerZambiaMaliCentralAfricanRepBeninMozambiqueBurkinaFasoRwandaNepalUgandaSenegalTogoGambiaGuineaCameroonZimbabweBoliviaPapuaNewGuineaHondurasNicaraguaJamaicaGuyanaParaguayElSalvadorDominicaFijiGabonPanamaTunisiaUruguayCostaRicaTrinidadandTobagoMauritiusBarbadosSeychelles,,20042005GDP,GDP20012003,2005,61(20071),,30,(WTO)80%,12000TCIHGDP,TCIHLCI,GDP,LCI,Hausmann,,Hausmann:TSIHl=ixilPXiixilPXiYi=ijxilPXiixilPXiYi+xjlPXjixilPXiYjj,j,j:TSIl=ijxilPXiixilPXiYij:TCIj=lxjlXjTSIl,,,,TCI,TCIGDP22000,Hausmann,0137,0134,,319802000TCIGDP,,(lnTCI)fjt(lnTCI)jt,jt:LCIjt=(lnTCI)jt-(lnTCI)fjtLCI,;LCI,;LCI,TCI,LCI,LCI011,,10%,HausmannTCI33200882Hausmann(2000)319802000TCIGDP,,,,,3,2000TCIHausmann,20012005;,,,TCI,,LCI,LCI,LCIGDP,419702000,70,;,,1990,,,519802000,LCI0,,,012,,43:,4LCI(19702000)5LCI(19802000)6LCI(19802000),619802000LCILCI,0170,Rodrik(2006)Schott(2006)Rodrik(2006)HausmannHuang(Hausmannetal1,2005),SchottOECD,,Schott,(Xu,2007)RodrikSchott,,GDP,GDP,GDP43%95%;GDP,TCI199228%,200581%,,,,TCI,,WangWei(2008),50%(19922005),LCI0135,,,,,,,,,,,,,199270%,200566%,,199220055320088,,Hausmann,,,,0170,19802000GDP918%,LCI,LCI,0150,19852005GDP715%,LCI,,,70,,71985199019952000,LCI5GDP,LCI5GDP,5109514831133192,10,GDP015090154801313013922%3%,1995LCI19962000GDP,679019901995GDP4131,19902000LCI0167,,199020002189,GDP(9166%)30%,,LCI196520054058,(1965,1970,,2000)(19661970,19711975,,20012005)GDPgriti()tGDP,LCIit(),Xit,:grit=+LCIit+Xit+it(1),,it,8,:grit=+LCIit+Xit+i+t+it(2),ii,tt,(1),19652005104,63:,,GDP,GDP,,,GDP,(,),7LCIGDPHausmannetal.(2005)Hausmannetal.(2005),,():grit=+lnTCIHit+lngdpit+it(3),gdpitGDP,,GDP,TCIHGDP,GDP,GDP,TCIGDP,,LCITCI,(1)Hausmann(3)(3)GDP,LCI,(1):grit=+[(lnTCI)it-(lnTCI)fit]+lnGDPit+it(lnTCI)fit=0+0lngdpit,00lnTCIlnGDP,,:grit=(-0)+(lnTCI)it-0lnGDPit+lnGDPit+it(4),(-0)(3),(3),(-0)(3),(4)(3),(3),,,(00),,7320088HausmannHausmann:,,;112(),,()890,Barro(Barro,1997),,,(2008a),()GDPGDPGDP()GDP,,GDPPWT611(Hestonetal1,2002);WTF(Feenstraetal.,2005)Rogoff,14,,,ReinhartRogoff(2002)PolityIV(MarshallandJaggers,2004),,-1010,,15,BarroLee(2000),2000,1999UNCTAD,IMFWTO,FDI19802005,FDI119651975198519951965197519851995LCI3159333(3122)619533(2152)21593(1176)3165333(2176)2186333(2174)218633(2128)3174333(3116)214533(2104)GDP()-11123(-1189)-1161(-1130)-0167(-0184)0185(1123)-01933(-1172)-0141(-0171)-0186(-1135)-0108(-0113)GDP(%)0119333(4184)0106(1112)01103(1166)-0116333(-2184)0119333(5110)0104(1117)01083(1165)-01093(-1175)GDP(%)01073(1188)0103(0156)-0104(-0180)-0101(-0121)-0101(-0138)0100(0109)-0104(-1100)0101(0124)GDP(%)0100(0160)-010333(-2156)-0100(-0109)0101(1151)0100(-0124)-010233(-2129)0100(0108)0101(1113)(114)01163(1197)0106(0149)-0110(-1114)0109(1106)0122333(2192)-0102(-0126)-0101(-0112)0107(0193)(-1010)-0104(-0177)0100(-0101)011733(2152)-0101(-0108)-01093(-1191)0102(0144)011133(2104)0100(-0102)150108(0135)-0111(-0135)0115(0156)-0104(-0116)0104(0119)0101(0104)0118(0184)0105(0120)6756788267757883AdjR201350112012101180138011201230113:t3331%,335%,310%83:(4),lnGDPit,,GDP,(1),(4)lnGDPit0,,(1)158,14;104,1,LCI,51041202198,,,1965,1995,,5515,,,5,19802005,FDI,,LCI,LCI,2(19652005)(19802005)(19652005)LCI3140333(3168)2168333(2166)4135333(2196)311833(1195)312433(2151)1167(1123)LCI-31113(-1183)-41693(-1164)-6180333(-3120)GDP()-4109333(-6116)-4115333(-6125)-5102333(-4120)-5119333(-4134)-5127333(-5194)-5128333(-6106)GDP(%)0118333(5163)0118333(5158)0126333(4179)0126333(4176)0121333(4183)0120333(4157)GDP(%)0102(0187)0102(0173)0100(0107)0100(-0105)0112333(2191)0112333(2185)GDP(%)010133(1199)010133(2101)0102(1155)01023(1170)0101(0195)0101(0193)(114)0106(1131)0107(1136)01133(1183)01133(1186)0100(-0104)0100(0104)(-1010)0101(0136)0102(0157)01103(1184)011133(2104)0104(0