格兰杰检验——试论通货膨胀与经济增长的关系

中国人民大学学报　1999年第3期试论通货膨胀与经济增长的关系[]　通货膨胀对经济增长的影响是经济理论研究中的一个重要课题。通过对我国近些年的实际数据分析表明:在我国,通货膨胀对经济增长起阻碍作用。这种作用是通过改变人们的消费——储蓄行为、使市场信号失真等机制实现的。尽管我国目前已初步呈现出买方市场的特征,但由于经济运行的低效率与产业结构的不合理,仍要对通货膨胀保持应有的警惕。[]通货膨胀　经济增长　格兰杰检验　买方市场[]周旭东,1969年生,1992年毕业于东北财经大学财政金融系,现为中国人民大学财政金融学院硕士研究生。陈斌,1972年生,1996年毕业于北京工业大学管理工程系,现为中国人民大学财政金融学院硕士研究生。张兵,1969年生,1992年毕业于大连理工大学材料工程系,现为东北财经大学金融系硕士研究生。,?,,,,,,1.,:,,,,,:,;,,,,2.,,,11,:(1),,,,,,(2),,,,(3),,,(4),,,,,,3.19,,,,,,,,:,;,,,,,,,:,,,,,1.,,,19911996,:(1)(GDP),GDP,GDP,GDP:,GDP,0.97,,GDP1219891996GDP(%)19891990199119921993199419951996GDP4.13.89.214.213.512.610.59.78.57.814.824.727.324.220.315.0:(2),:,,;;(3),,(4)19902.:XY,X,Y,:XYXY,YY,X,YX,XY,::Y=mi=1iYt-i+mi=1iPt-i+t,YP,i,m,F00,,,,,,3.(1),,,,(2),,Y=f(X)XY4.1,,,,,,,,13,,,,,,GNP,!;,,,GDP,∀,,19911996#2,,,,12FPY3.16**(-)YP1.45**0.05FPM5.47**MP1.37:,:,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,),,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,14,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,,,,,1993199428.4%31.1%,199619.4%;1993199458.6%31.4%,199618.2%∃,:,,,,,,,,(),,,,,():,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,15,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,CWJGranger,InvestigatingCausalRelationbyEconometricModelandCross-Spectralmethods,Econometrics,1969,pp.424-438.#TSP,19911996,-0.18!Christompher.Sims,Money,Income,andCausality,AmericaEconomicReview,1972,pp.540-550.∀:,199711,1625∃[][1]:,19974[2]:,199710[3]:,1995[4]ELFeige,andDKPearce,TheCausalRelationshipBetweenMoneyandIncome:SomeCaveatsforTimeSeriesAnalysis,JournalofEconometrics,1988.[5]Woo,Jung,NewFindsaboutMoneySupplyandInflation,Money,CreditandBanking,1986.()16ABSTRACTSConditionsofFinancialLibertyTanRuyongWorldwidepracticesince1970spointsouttotheroughnessofthepathoffinancialliber-tyindevelopingcountries.Thepointisnotwhetherfinanciallibertyisjustifiedinthesecoun-tries,butrather,whethertheyarereadyforityet.Generallyspeaking,theprerequisitesforfinanciallibertyincludeanoptimalenvironmentofmacroeconomyandmicrofoundation.InChina'sspecificsituation,however,thereareadditionalpre-requisites.Itisrequiredthatreg-ulationsoffinancialrestrictionbesetupinadvancefordomesticfinancialliberty,andfree-dominforeigntradeanddomesticfinanciallibertybeestablishedforrealizationofexternalfinancialliberty.OnRelationshipbetweenInflationandEconomicGrowthZhouXudongChenBinZhangBingTheimpactofinflationoneconomicgrowthisamajorissueineconomicstudies.Analy-sisofdatacollectedinrecentyearsindicatesthatinflationhashinderedeconomicgrowthinChina.Thisiscausedbychangesinpatternsofsavingandconsuming,whichinturngivesrisetofalsesignalsfromthemarket.Althoughsignsofabuyer'smarketarealreadyinsight,therestillremainsmuchworktodotopushitforward.Andwemustkeepconstantguarda-gainstinflationbecauseoftheexistenceofourlowefficiencyineconomicoperationandun-balanceinindustrialstructure.FormandFunctionofSocialRelevancyinTraditionalChineseSocietyChenJinsongSocialrelevancyisembodiedinthreeforms:spiritualrelevancy(includingthatofwitchcraft),ethicrelevancyandcontractrelevancy.InaConfuciansocietyorthetraditionalChinesesocietyitisintheformofethicrelevancy.AmajorfeatureoftheoperationofthetraditionalChinesesocietyistheprincipleofinter-dependenceofturmiolandcontrol.Ethicrelevancyservesthissocialstructurewellandhassuccessfullyfulfilledninemajorfunctionsandnineby-functions.126