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SeeDisclosureAppendixA1fortheAnalystCertificationandOtherImportantDisclosuresNomuraSecuritiesInternationalInc.GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorNOMURAGLOBALECONOMICSEuroareafiscalroller-coasterPolicymakershaveroiledmarketsastheytrytocraftanewcrisis-resolutionmechanisminafiscalcrisis.Butwethinktheywillkeepthingsontherails.GLOBALLETTERQE2hitschoppywaters5ButtheFedisunlikelytochangecourseinresponse.REGIONALROUNDUPSUnitedStatesQEisworking6Contrarytotheclaimsofitscritics,QE2startedtoworkevenbeforeitwaslaunched.EuropePreparethelifeboats8Today’sEUstatementgoessomewaytowardsoffsettingearliercommunicationerrors.JapanThesustainabilityofcapitalspending10Somecloudsnotwithstanding,weseelimitedriskofcapexlosingmomentum.Asiaex-JapanSouthKorea:Twinimbalances12WithaCAsurplusandhighinflation,weexpectwonappreciationbutratesonhold.EmergingMarketsEEMEA:Fiscalpressurefromtheperiphery14PressuremayriseforfurtherfiscaleffortsasEuropeanperipherywoesresurface.SPECIALTOPICSAustraliaPre-emptingrisinginflation16WeseetheReserveBankofAustraliapossiblysurprisingwithmoreratehikes.ItalyPoliticalpressuremounts18ButwethinkthegovernmentwillsurviveatleastuntiltheStabilityLawgetsapproved.12November2010DATAANDOUTLOOKSForecastsummary......................2Ourviewinanutshell.................3Economicdatacalendar..............4UnitedStates............................19Europe.....................................22Japan.......................................26Asia.........................................28EmergingMarkets.....................33Contacts...................................46GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorForecastSummaryTheWorldataGlanceRealGDPConsumerPricesPolicyRate%overayearago%overayearago%endofperiod201020112012201020112012201020112012Global4.74.1↑4.43.13.33.2↓2.98↑3.53↑4.05↑Developed2.52.0↑2.4↑1.51.61.40.570.911.23EmergingMarkets7.3↑6.46.65.1↑5.25.2↓5.76↑6.44↑7.07↑BRICs8.78.08.05.04.8↓4.8↓6.59↑7.197.75Americas3.62.8↑3.1↑2.9↑2.72.5↑1.92↑2.06↑2.36↑UnitedStates*2.72.5↑2.7↑1.71.51.20.130.130.13Canada3.02.32.31.82.12.01.002.503.25LatinAmerica6.5↑3.94.36.8↑6.6↑6.6↑7.54↑7.67↑8.63↑Argentina9.0↑5.0↓4.7↑26.7↑24.6↑25.7↑9.23↑12.00↑11.00↑Brazil7.54.14.74.94.74.510.7510.0010.00Chile5.04.55.52.53.03.03.004.005.00Colombia5.04.24.52.53.53.73.004.006.00Mexico4.73.03.53.93.94.04.504.507.25Asia/Pacific7.66.77.03.33.43.64.13↑4.835.40Japan†2.90.92.0-0.9-0.40.10.050.050.05Australia3.43.63.63.03.13.15.005.255.25NewZealand1.82.83.52.33.92.43.003.75↓4.50↓AsiaexJapan,Aust,NZ9.08.18.24.34.24.45.04↑5.866.51China10.29.89.53.03.64.05.566.567.31HongKong***6.24.34.82.54.44.80.400.400.40India**8.48.28.58.95.95.76.25↑6.757.50Indonesia5.96.56.75.0↓5.85.36.507.507.50Malaysia7.05.25.51.73.33.22.753.503.50Philippines6.34.54.83.94.25.04.005.006.50Singapore***15.55.35.82.82.82.60.400.400.40SouthKorea5.93.55.03.03.73.02.252.753.00Taiwan9.24.35.01.02.43.01.632.132.63Thailand7.04.85.23.54.24.41.752.503.00Vietnam6.76.67.08.49.08.89.0010.0010.00WesternEurope1.71.6↓1.81.82.2↑1.80.911.662.46Euroarea1.71.61.81.61.91.91.001.752.50France1.61.7↓1.91.71.71.81.001.752.50Germany3.5↑2.52.41.11.6↓1.71.001.752.50Italy1.0↓1.01.31.72.32.11.001.752.50Netherlands1.7↓1.7↓2.21.0↑1.82.01.001.752.50Spain-0.2↑0.20.71.72.01.81.001.752.50UnitedKingdom1.81.92.33.23.3↑1.5↑0.501.252.25EEMEA3.53.33.35.6↓6.6↓6.2↓5.956.65↓6.98↑CzechRepublic2.3↑1.4↑2.61.72.62.00.751.25↓2.00Egypt5.55.85.711.912.211.08.259.009.00Hungary1.0↑1.5↑2.0↑4.94.13.85.257.007.50Israel2.73.84.03.02.93.42.253.503.75Kazakhstan6.25.34.87.1↑7.6↑6.57.007.25↑7.00↑Poland3.64.24.62.63.53.24.005.005.50Romania-2.01.52.56.14.03.06.256.007.00SaudiArabia4.2↑4.34.05.45.65.32.002.252.50Russia4.03.42.7↓6.8↓8.7↓7.7↓7.758.258.25SouthAfrica3.03.33.64.24.66.16.007.009.50Turkey5.94.55.57.25.45.47.008.508.75Ukraine4.74.85.09.510.710.57.757.757.00UnitedArabEmirates2.13.53.0-0.32.53.02.002.252.50Note:Aggregatescalculatedusingpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)adjustedsharesofworldGDP;RealGDPandCPIreportedasannualaveragegrowthrates;Developedcountries:UnitedStates,Canada,Japan,Australia,NewZealand,HongKong,Singapore,theEuroarea,andtheUnitedKingdom-allothercountriesareconsideredEmergingMarkets;BRICS:Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina;EEMEA:EmergingEurope,MiddleEastandAfrica;allvaluesareforecasts.Ourforecastsincorporateassumptionsonthefuturepathofoilpricesbasedonoilpricefutures,consensusforecastsandNomurain-houseanalysis.CurrentlyassumedaverageBrentoilpricesfor2010,2011and2012are$79,$88and$95respectively,after$62in2009.*2010and2011policyrateforecastsaremidpointof0-0.25%targetfederalfundsraterange.**Inflationreferstowholesaleprices.***ForHongKongandSingapore,thepolicyraterefersto3MHiborand3MSibor,respectively.†Policyrateforecastsin2010-2012aremidpointofBOJ’s0-0.10%targetunsecuredovernightcallraterange.The↑↓arrowssignifychangesfromlastweek.Source:NomuraGlobalEconomics.NomuraGlobalEconomics212November2010GlobalWeeklyEconomicMonitorOurViewinaNutshell(changefromlastweekhighlighted)Global•De-leveragingforces,fiscalrestraintandotherlegaciesofthecrisisaresettomutethestrengthofdevelopedworldrecovery.•