高华证券：欧洲：投资组合策略：XXXX 年展望：行业观点

2009年12月3日欧洲：投资组合策略高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究12009年12月3日欧洲：投资组合策略2010年展望：行业观点2010年进一步分化随着周期从“希望阶段”向“增长阶段”过渡，我们预计行业的表现将愈发受到增长可持续性的推动。这并不会排除一些周期型行业的表现将领先，但是我们看好的行业体现了在周期过程中的预计增长态势，而非经济敏感性本身。继续投资大宗商品相关行业大宗商品行业和在金砖四国拥有业务的行业是具备可持续增长的两个领域；我们仍然建议高配石油与天然气、基本资源、工业品及汽车等行业。我们对个人日用品行业的建议上调至高配，以反映该板块在新兴市场较高的业务比重，特别是奢侈品和烟草。较不看好金融板块在银行业强劲的表现过后，我们对该板块的建议下调至标配，但仍然看好大型的全球零售银行(GSSBBKGL)。我们对保险业的建议下调至低配，因为该板块面临着结构性问题并可能受到低利率的限制。我们的子行业组合建议通过子行业股票组合来利用以上观点，我们将烟草(GSSBTOBA)、饮料(GSSBBEVS)及钢铁(GSSBSTEL)等组合加入了我们的多头建议。我们建议买空食品产品(GSSBFOOP)、综合零售(GSSBGERE)及酒店餐饮与休闲(GSSBHOLR)等组合。我们对斯托克600指数行业的新建议与基准指数的权重比较MarketDeviationfromBenchmarkSectorTickerweight(bp)Oil&gasSXEP10.21%75bpAutomobiles&partsSXAP1.76%50BasicresourcesSXPP5.01%50Personal&householdgoodsSXQP4.43%50Industrialgoods&servicesSXNP7.89%25Construction&materialsSXOP2.69%0bpBanksSX7P16.90%0FinancialservicesSXFP1.56%0Food&beverageSX3P7.20%0MediaSXMP2.00%0TechnologySX8P2.98%0TelecommunicationsSXKP6.78%0Travel&leisureSXTP1.12%0UtilitiesSX6P6.22%0ChemicalsSX4P3.85%-25bpInsuranceSXIP5.51%-50RealEstateSX86P1.11%-50RetailSXRP3.35%-50HealthcareSXDP9.42%-75OverweightNeutralUnderweight+资料来源：高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究彼得·欧品海默+44(20)7552-5782|[e-mail]高盛国际GeraldMoser+44(20)7774-5725|[e-mail]高盛国际ChristianMueller-Glissmann,CFA+44(20)7774-1714|[e-mail]高盛国际AndersNielsen+44(20)7552-3000|[e-mail]高盛国际MatthieuWalterspiler+44(20)7552-3403|[e-mail]高盛国际SharonBell,CFA+44(20)7552-1341|[e-mail]高盛国际高盛集团与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或参阅。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究December3,2009Europe:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch1December3,2009Europe:PortfolioStrategyOutlook2010:SectorviewsMoredifferentiationin2010Aswemovefromthe‘hope’tothe‘growth’phaseofthecycle,weexpectsectorperformancetobedrivenincreasinglybythesustainabilityofgrowth.Thisshouldnotprecludesomecyclicalsectorsfromoutperforming,butthosethatwepreferreflectexpectedgrowthoverthecourseofthecycleratherthaneconomicsensitivityperse.Stayexposedtocommodity-relatedsectorsCommoditiesandBRICsexposurearetwoareasofsustainablegrowth;wemaintainouroverweightsonoil&gas,basicresources,industrialgoodsandautos.Weraisepersonalhouseholdgoodstooverweight,reflectingthehighEMexposure,particularlyforluxuryandtobacco.LesspositiveonfinancialsWedowngradebankstoneutralfollowingstrongperformance,butcontinuetofavourlargeglobalretailbanks(GSSBBKGL).Wedowngradeinsurancetounderweightasitfacesstructuralissuesandislikelytobeconstrainedbylowrates.Oursub-sectorbasketrecommendationsUsingsub-sectorbasketstorefinetheseviews,wehaveaddedtobacco(GSSBTOBA),beverages(GSSBBEVS)andsteel(GSSBSTEL)toourlongs.Werecommendshortpositionsinfoodproducts(GSSBFOOP),generalretail(GSSBGERE)andhospitalityandleisure(GSSBHOLR).OurnewSTOXX600sectorrecommendationsrelativetothebenchmarkMarketDeviationfromBenchmarkSectorTickerweight(bp)Oil&gasSXEP10.21%75bpAutomobiles&partsSXAP1.76%50BasicresourcesSXPP5.01%50Personal&householdgoodsSXQP4.43%50Industrialgoods&servicesSXNP7.89%25Construction&materialsSXOP2.69%0bpBanksSX7P16.90%0FinancialservicesSXFP1.56%0Food&beverageSX3P7.20%0MediaSXMP2.00%0TechnologySX8P2.98%0TelecommunicationsSXKP6.78%0Travel&leisureSXTP1.12%0UtilitiesSX6P6.22%0ChemicalsSX4P3.85%-25bpInsuranceSXIP5.51%-50RealEstateSX86P1.11%-50RetailSXRP3.35%-50HealthcareSXDP9.42%-75OverweightNeutralUnderweight+Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.PeterOppenheimer+44(20)7552-5782|[e-mail]onalGeraldMoser+44(20)7774-5725|[e-mail]onalChristianMueller-Glissmann,CFA+44(20)7774-1714|[e-mail]onalAndersNielsen+44(20)7552-3000|[e-mail]onalMatthieuWalterspiler+44(20)7552-3403|[e-mail]onalSharonBell,CFA+44(20)7552-1341|[e-mail]onalTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetext.OtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgoto:PortfolioStrategyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearch2TableofcontentsDifferentiate3Defensives:Preferpersonalhouseholdgoods8Consumercyclicals:Localmacroheadwindsvs.BRICsexposure14Industrialcyclicals:Wepreferindustrialgoods21Commodity-relatedsectors:Stillconstructiveonoil&resources24Financials:Agrimoutlookforthesup