经济部统计(1)

RisingPhoenixAnEconomyinTransitionAgainChiSchivePresident,TaiwanAcademyofBankingandFinanceDecember17,2004ContentsDomesticEconomicPerformanceCurrentEconomicIssuesWTOandCross-straitRelationAScenario320002001200220032004f2005fGDP5.86-2.183.593.315.874.49Export21.98-17.166.2910.4021.317.03Import26.49-23.414.9413.0829.375.79CPI1.26-0.01-0.20-0.281.491.58WPI1.82-1.340.052.486.992.76Unemployment2.994.575.174.994.67--Taiwan’sCurrentEconomicPerformance%Source:Asignificantincreaseof11.5%betweenJanuaryandOctoberthisyearoverthepreviousyear.資料來源：經濟部統計處新聞資料，工業生產變動概況，93年11月23日。5DomesticEconomy,TradeByOctoberthisyear,exportandimportgrewby17.5%and38.1%,respectively.資料來源：財政部統計處新聞稿，海關進出口貿易概況暨補充說明，93年11月8日。6DomesticEconomy,TradeBalanceTradesurplusofthisyearbyAugustdecreasedby54.3%overthesameperiodlastyear.資料來源：財政部統計處新聞稿，海關進出口貿易概況暨補充說明，93年11月8日。67CPIinAugustincreased2.36%overthelastyear,thecumulativefigurebyOctoberwas1.62%。However,thesamefiguresforWPIthisyearwere12.02％and6.97%,respectively。資料來源：行政院主計處編印，中華民國台灣地區物價統計月報及新聞稿，93年11月5日。DomesticEconomy,Price8DomesticEconomy,MoneySupple資料來源：中央銀行編印，中華民國台灣地區金融統計月報，各期。Ｍ2andＭ1Bgrewby7.5％and20.1％,respectivelybyOctoberthisyear,whichwereadropof0.3and2.1percentageoverthepreviousmonth.9SourcesofGrowth,2000-2004SourcesofGrowthUnit：%ThesluggishTaiwaneconomybeforethisyearwaslargelyduetoweakdomesticdemandinconsumptionandinvestment.ExpandingnetexportcontributedsignificantlytoTaiwangrowthbetween2001and2003.Strongsurgeofprivateinvestmentandinventoryisthekeyforthegrowthofthisyear.DomesticDemandNetForeignDemandPeriodEconomicGrowthRateTotalConsum-ptionFixedCapitalFormationInventoryTotalExportsMinusImports20005.93.93.12.0-1.22.08.86.92001-2.2-4.90.6-5.2-0.52.8-4.4-7.120023.61.01.2-0.4-0.22.65.32.620033.20.90.5-0.30.62.45.93.520045.85.21.62.41.20.710.39.6Source:DGBASCurrentEconomicIssues11ForcesShapingTaiwan’sEconomicFutureWhichproblem,thecyclicalorstructuralone,Taiwanisfacing?WhatareTaiwan’sstructuralproblems?Thefinancialmarketisgettingimproved,yetwithunfinishedjobs.Theexpandingpublicdebtshouldbecontrolled.Thelabormarketneedsrevitalization.WTOImpactandCross-Straitrelations12%4.154.774.525.645.826.256.847.447.967.828.785.006.396.847.524.415.054.965.516.044.065.176.477.756.395.874.573.768.281.212.092.363.533.522.973.223.033.202.662.491.241.510.990246810M-98J-98S-98D-98M-99J-99S-99D-99M-00J-00S-00D-00M-01J-01S-01D-01M-02J-02S-02D-02M-03J-03S-03D-03M-04J-04全體機構本國銀行(含信託投資公司)外國銀行在台分行CurrentFinancialProblemTotalDomesticForeignThequalityoffinancialassetshasbeenimprovedsignificantlyinlasttwoyearsNonperformingLoanas%ofTotalUnit:%13CurrentFinancialProblemUnhealthyFinancialSectorTaiwan’soverallcompetitivenessrankedthe24thbyIMD’s2002WorldCompetitivenessReportsover49countries.Yet,itsinside-tradingwasrankedthe31th.FinancialRegulationwasrankedthe37th.FinancialProductwasthe31th.FinancialOrganizationRestructuringMuchNeededTherewereonlythreemergerssofar.Foreignbank’sacquisitionsarestilltobeseen.14MajorFinancialReformsThoseAccomplished:TheFHClawwasavailable,encouragingcross-selling.TheFinancialCompanyMergerlawwaspromulgated.AMCsandRTCwereestablished.Full-disclosurewasemphasizedandinstitutionalized.AnOTCmarketforbroaderscopeofcompanieswasavailable.1/1000taxoncommercialbondtransactionwaived.TheunifiedfinancialsupervisionbodywasestablishedbyJuly2004.Financialandnon-financialassetssecuritizationlawswerepromulgated.15MajorFinancialReformsThosetobeaccomplished:Astiffregulationonbank’scapitaladequacyratioofBISstandardbeinplace.RTCfundtoberaisedforhelpingsolvingthosedefactobankruptedfinancialinstitutes.AneffectivePCAregulationtobeinstalled.16FiscalReforms2688363625061464-4661273-1070195318391652-349-215335927441867239912.513.312.313.214.71615.716.11817.918.218.617.420.117.813010201989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004%-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,000TotalBudgetBalance%TaxRevenueNT$billion•Mountingnationaldebthastobeputonrein.Theextremelowtaxrevenuebyinternationalstandardcausesmuchconcern.17UnemploymentRatesinUS,JapanandTaiwan,1991-20030123456789101991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003USTaiwanJapan%Source:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,variousissues.6.05.54.9918UnemploymentRatesinUK,IrelandandNetherlands,1991-2003024681012141618201991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003%UKNetherlandsIrelandSource:1.IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,variousissues.2.ILO,InternationalLaborStatistics,variousissues.3.14.25.119ForTaiwan:RecognitionofitseconomicstrengthBacktotheinternationalplatformForChina:BeginningofawholenewroundofreformsAfurtherintegrationintotheworldeconomyImpactfromtheWTOEntryWTOTAIWANCHINA?20ImpactfromEnteringWTOThelongoverdueTaiwan’sentryintoWTObringslimiteddirectimpactupontheeconomybecauseofitsalreadyquiteopenedeconomy.Yet,theindirectinfluencefrommainlandChina’sentrywillbeenormous.IfWTOmeansWatchingTaiwanOpen,itwillbemoresoformainlandChina.Taiwan’sagricultu