苹果橘子经济学(1)

FREAKONOMICSARogueEconomistExplorestheHiddenSideofEverythingStevenD.LevittandStephenJ.DubnerCONTENTSANEXPLANATORYNOTEInwhichtheoriginsofthisbookareclarified.INTRODUCTION:TheHiddenSideofEverythingInwhichthebook’scentralideaissetforth:namely,ifmoralityrepresentshowpeoplewouldliketheworldtowork,theneconomicsshowshowitactuallydoeswork.Whytheconventionalwisdomissooftenwrong…How“experts”—fromcriminologiststoreal-estateagentstopoliticalscientists—bendthefacts…Whyknowingwhattomeasure,andhowtomeasureit,isthekeytounderstandingmodernlife…Whatis“freakonomics,”anyway?1.WhatDoSchoolteachersandSumoWrestlersHaveinCommon?Inwhichweexplorethebeautyofincentives,aswellastheirdarkside—cheating.Whocheats?Justabouteveryone…Howcheaterscheat,andhowtocatchthem…StoriesfromanIsraeliday-carecenter…ThesuddendisappearanceofsevenmillionAmericanchildren…CheatingschoolteachersinChicago…Whycheatingtoloseisworsethancheatingtowin…Couldsumowrestling,thenationalsportofJapan,becorrupt?…WhattheBagelMansaw:mankindmaybemorehonestthanwethink.2.HowIstheKuKluxKlanLikeaGroupofReal-EstateAgents?Inwhichitisarguedthatnothingismorepowerfulthaninformation,especiallywhenitspowerisabused.GoingundercoverintheKuKluxKlan…Whyexpertsofeverykindareintheperfectpositiontoexploityou…Theantidotetoinformationabuse:theInternet…Whyanewcarissuddenlyworthsomuchlessthemomentitleavesthelot…Breakingthereal-estateagentcode:what“wellmaintained”reallymeans…IsTrentLottmoreracistthantheaverageWeakestLinkcontestant?…Whatdoonlinedaterslieabout?3.WhyDoDrugDealersStillLivewithTheirMoms?Inwhichtheconventionalwisdomisoftenfoundtobeaweboffabrication,self-interest,andconvenience.Whyexpertsroutinelymakeupstatistics;theinventionofchronichalitosis…Howtoaskagoodquestion…SudhirVenkatesh’slong,strangetripintothecrackden…Lifeisatournament…Whyprostitutesearnmorethanarchitects…Whatadrugdealer,ahigh-schoolquarterback,andaneditorialassistanthaveincommon…Howtheinventionofcrackcocainemirroredtheinventionofnylonstockings…WascracktheworstthingtohitblackAmericanssinceJimCrow?4.WhereHaveAlltheCriminalsGone?Inwhichthefactsofcrimearesortedoutfromthefictions.WhatNicolaeCeau?esculearned—thehardway—aboutabortion…Whythe1960swereagreattimetobeacriminal…Thinktheroaring1990seconomyputacrimponcrime?Thinkagain…Whycapitalpunishmentdoesn’tdetercriminals…Dopoliceactuallylowercrimerates?…Prisons,prisonseverywhere…SeeingthroughtheNewYorkCitypolice“miracle”…Whatisagun,really?…WhyearlycrackdealerswerelikeMicrosoftmillionairesandlatercrackdealerswerelikePets.com…Thesuperpredatorversustheseniorcitizen…JaneRoe,crimestopper:howthelegalizationofabortionchangedeverything.5.WhatMakesaPerfectParent?Inwhichweask,fromavarietyofangles,apressingquestion:doparentsreallymatter?Theconversionofparentingfromanarttoascience…Whyparentingexpertsliketoscareparentstodeath…Whichismoredangerous:agunoraswimmingpool?…Theeconomicsoffear…Obsessiveparentsandthenature-nurturequagmire…Whyagoodschoolisn’tasgoodasyoumightthink…Theblack-whitetestgapand“actingwhite”…Eightthingsthatmakeachilddobetterinschoolandeightthatdon’t.6.PerfectParenting,PartII;or:WouldaRoshandabyAnyOtherNameSmellasSweet?Inwhichweweightheimportanceofaparent’sfirstofficialact—namingthebaby.AboynamedWinnerandhisbrother,Loser…Theblackestnamesandthewhitestnames…Thesegregationofculture:whySeinfeldnevermadethetopfiftyamongblackviewers…Ifyouhaveareallybadname,shouldyoujustchangeit?…High-endnamesandlow-endnames(andhowonebecomestheother)…BritneySpears:asymptom,notacause…IsAvivathenextMadison?…Whatyourparentsweretellingtheworldwhentheygaveyouyourname.EPILOGUE:TwoPathstoHarvardInwhichthedependabilityofdatameetstherandomnessoflife.ANEXPLANATORYNOTEThemostbrilliantyoungeconomistinAmerica—theonesodeemed,atleast,byajuryofhiselders—brakestoastopatatrafficlightonChicago’ssouthside.Itisasunnydayinmid-June.HedrivesanaginggreenChevyCavalierwithadustydashboardandawindowthatdoesn’tquiteshut,producingadullroarathighwayspeeds.Butthecarisquietfornow,asarethenoontimestreets:gasstations,boundlessconcrete,brickbuildingswithplywoodwindows.Anelderlyhomelessmanapproaches.Itsaysheishomelessrightonhissign,whichalsoasksformoney.Hewearsatornjacket,tooheavyforthewarmday,andagrimyredbaseballcap.Theeconomistdoesn’tlockhisdoorsorinchthecarforward.Nordoeshegoscroungingforsparechange.Hejustwatches,asifthroughone-wayglass.Afterawhile,thehomelessmanmovesalong.“Hehadniceheadphones,”saystheeconomist,stillwatchingintherearviewmirror.“Well,nicerthantheonesIhave.Otherwise,itdoesn’tlooklikehehasmanyassets.”StevenLevitttendstoseethingsdifferentlythantheaverageperson.Differently,too,thantheaverageeconomist.Thisiseitherawonderfultraitoratroublingone,dependingonhowyoufeelabouteconomists.—TheNewYorkTimesMagazine,August3,2003Inthesummerof2003,TheNewYorkTimesMagazinesentStephenJ.Dubner,anauthorandjournalist,towriteaprofileofStevenD.Levitt,aheraldedyoungeconomistattheUniversityofChicago.Dubner,whowasresearchingabookaboutthepsychologyofmoney,hadlatelybeeninterviewingmanyeconomistsandfoundthattheyoftenspokeEnglishasifitwereafourthorfifthlanguage.