关于我国汇率制度选择的思考

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[]2004-03-18[](1972),,,,:,(1972),,,,,:(1.,510632;2.,430060)[],,[];;;[]F821.1[]A[]1000-5072(2004)03-0046-06(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),Frankel(1997),[1]11Ghosh(1997),,:,,,LevySturzenegger(2000),,,IMF(2000),1995,,,,,,,,2120044()111No.42004JournalofJinanUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciences)SumNo.111©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3],,,2090,Ghosh(1997),LevySturzenegger(2001),1%ObstfeldRogoff(2000),,,,[4]31,EichengreenRose(1998)Chang(2000),,,[5]DomacPeria(2000),,,IMF(1)119751996:1975-1981112271231982-198918122143491990-199691101213451975-199663450117:IMF,1997,WorldEconomicSurveyOctober1997,,19751996117,,,,,Eichengreen(1994),ObstfiedRogoff(1995),[6],,,,,,,,,,,,7420047:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()1997,,,,,22:01960175017801950191:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlook,1997,,1995,,1801125,56%,,,2080,90,,,(3),3GDP199141621211121161017199221521415112108171993311116171121681419943193111155108161995612319818416121719966134199169189131997116218417417-1016:IMF,InternationalCapitalMarkets,Develop2ments,ProspectsandKeyPolicyIssues,November19971,,:,,;,,,;,;,,,,,,,,90,,,,,,90,,,,19931996,,,1990,1997,19%,12%,8%,18%,30%1997,,(),,,,,1997,1%(4),,1999,84()264©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[7]:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,:11,200319606216,7000,GDP50%,,,WTO,,,21,,,,,,,[8],,9420047:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,:;,;,,,,,,:,,,,,Ross:,,,,,,,,,,,,,05()264©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:11,,;,,;,,21,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[][1]1[A]1,2001,(4)1[2]Levy-Yeyati,EduardoandFedericoSturzenegger1ClassifyingExchangeRateRegimes:Deedsvs1Words[A]1WorkingPaper,UniversityTorcuatoDiTella,20001[3]Williamson,John1ThecaseforaBasket,BandandCrawlRegimeforEastAsia[J]1InstituteforInternationalEco2nomics,20001[4]Krugmen,Paul1TargetZonesandExchangeRateDy2namics[J]1TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,CVI,1991:669-6821[5]1:[J]1,2003,(1)1[6]Obstfeld,MauriceandKennethRogoff1TheMirageofFixedExchangeRates[J]1JournalofEconomicPerspec2tives,1995,(4)1[7]1[J]1,2000,(1)1[8],1%19942000[J]1,2002,(5)1[9]1[J]1,2001,(4)1[]1520047: