4-analyzinginvestmentproject投资净现值分析

1111ChapterFourAnalyzingInvestmentproject222ContentsTheconceptofcapitalbudgetingThestepsofinvestmentanalysisEstimationofcostofcapitalMeasurecashflowsTheapproachesofcapitalbudgeting33Whatisainvestmentoraproject?Anydecisionthatrequirestheuseofresources(financialorotherwise)isaproject.BroadstrategicdecisionsEnteringnewareasofbusinessEnteringnewmarketInvestinginequipmenttoreducecostsAcquiringothercompanies4WhatisCorporateFinancetalkingaboutBalanceSheetCurrentAssetsFixedAssetsTotalAssetsCurrentLiabilitiesLong-termLiabilitiesShareholder’sEquityTotalLiabilitiesandShareholdersEquityInvestmentdecision(CapitalBudgetingFinancingdecision(CapitalStructure)CashManagement4555CapitalbudgetingTheprocessofanalyzinginvestmentdecisionsforafirmiscalledcapitalbudgeting.We’lllookathowtousediscountedcashflow(DCF)analysisandnetpresentvalue(NPV)andotherrulesincapitalbudgetingdecisionmaking.66StepsinInvestmentAnalysis1.Estimateahurdleratefortheproject,basedupontheriskinessoftheinvestment2.Estimaterevenuesandaccountingearningsontheinvestment.3.ConvertaccountingearningsintocashflowsUsethecashflowstoevaluatewhethertheinvestmentisagoodinvestment.4.TimeweightthecashflowsUsethetime-weightedcashflowstoevaluatewhethertheinvestmentisagoodinvestment.5.Evaluateinvestmentandmakedecisions77EstimatingtheHurdleRateforanInvestmentIfafirmisinonlyonebusiness,andallofitsinvestmentsarehomogeneous:Usethecompany’scostsofcapitaltoevaluateitsinvestments.Ifthefirmisinmorethanonebusiness,butinvestmentswithineachofbusinessaresimilar:Usethedivisionalcostsofcapitaltoevaluateinvestmentsmadebythatdivision88Example：Supposethatafirm100%equityfunded,ithasthreedivisions:(1)electronicswhichisoccupied30%ofthefirm’smarketvalue,thecostofcapitalis22%;(2)chemicaldepartmentwhichhas40%ofmarketvalue,itscostofcapitalis17%;(3)naturegastransmissiondivisionhas30%ofmarketvalue,thecostofcapitalis14%.theweightedaveragecostofcapitalofthefirm=0.3×22%+0.4×17%+0.3×14%=17.6%whenweconductcapitalbudgetingforaproject,assumeit’ssimilartoelectronicindustry,ifweuse17.6%ashurdlerateofthenewinvestment,nodoubtwewouldovervaluetheinvestment,wouldmakeworrydecisionintheconsequence.Howweestimatetheappropriatediscountratethen?9EstimatingtheHurdleRateforanInvestmentIfafirmisplanningonenteringanewbusiness:Estimateacostofequityfortheinvestment,basedupontheriskinessoftheinvestmentEstimateacostofdebtanddebtratiofortheinvestmentbaseduponthecostsofdebtanddebtratiosofotherfirmsinthebusiness.910EstimatingtheHurdleRateforanInvestmentThehurdlerateofaparticularprojectbasedupontherisknessofit.Theriskthatisrelevantincomputingaproject’scostofcapitalistheriskoftheproject’scashflowsandnottheriskofthefinancinginstrumentsthefirmissuestofinancetheproject.101111Example:supposethatCompusellCorporationisplanningtofinance$5millionoutlayrequiredtoundertakeanewprojectbyissuingbonds.SupposeCompusellcanissuebondsataninterestrateof6%peryear.Canweadopts6%asthecostofcapitaltoevaluatethenewproject?Why?1212EstimatingtheHurdleRateforanInvestmentBrErFinancingmixofaprojectorafirmOwner’sfunds(equity)Borrowedmoney(debt)Costofdebt?rBCostofequity？rECAPMAftertaxofinterests/actualmoneyfundedTheWeightedAverageCostofCapital：AErADTrkEcB)1(1313EstimatingtheHurdleRateforanInvestmentInvestorandInvesteeRequirearateofreturnCostofcapitalStep214Step2:Estimaterevenuesandaccountingearningsontheinvestment.Step3:Convertaccountingearningsintocashflows14MeasureCashFlows151515Thefeaturesofcashflowsincapitalbudgeting1.Cashflowsfromoperatingactivities2.Aftertaxcashflows3.Incrementalcashflowsoperating+aftertax+incremental161616IncrementalcashflowsIncalculatingtheNPVofaproject,incrementalcashflowsshouldbeused.Thesecashflowarethechangesinthefirm’scashflowsthatoccurasadirectconsequenceofacceptingtheproject.Thedifferencebetweenthecashflowsofthefirmwiththeprojectandthecashflowsofthefirmwithouttheproject.1717FromCashFlowstoIncrementalCashFlowsTheKeyQuestionstodeterminewhetheracashflowisincremental:WhatwillhappentothiscashflowitemifIaccepttheinvestment?WhatwillhappentothiscashflowitemifIdonotaccepttheinvestment?Ifthecashflowwilloccurwhetheryoutakethisinvestmentorrejectit,itisnotanincrementalcashflow.1818SunkCostsAnyexpenditurethathasalreadybeenincurred,andcannotberecovered(evenifaprojectisrejected)iscalledasunkcost.Whenanalyzingaproject,sunkcostsshouldnotbeconsideredsincetheyarenotincremental.Bythisdefinition,markettestingexpensesandR&Dexpensesarebothlikelytobesunkcostsbeforetheprojectsthatarebaseduponthemareanalyzed.Ifsunkcostsarenotconsideredinprojectanalysis,howcanafirmensurethatthesecostsarecovered?1919SideEffects-CostsandBenefitsMostprojectsconsideredbyanybusinesscreatesidecostsandbenefitsforthatbusiness.Thesidecostsincludethecostscreatedbytheuseofresourcesthatthebusinessalreadyowns(opportunitycosts)andlostrevenuesforotherprojectsthatthefirmmayhave.Thebenefitsthatmaynotbecapturedinthetraditionalcapitalbudgetinganalysisincludeprojectsynergies(wherecashflowbenefitsmayaccruetootherprojects)andoptionsembeddedinprojects(includi