我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析

摘要I我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析摘要外汇储备能够用来调节国际收支、干预外汇市场，对于任何一个国家都是必不可少的。持有外汇储备能够带来收益，但也是有成本的，一国应保持合适的外汇储备量。目前，我国的外汇储备是超额的，巨额的外汇储备主要由经常项目顺差、资本和金融项目顺差以及大量的外商直接投资造成。通过比例分析法分析表明，我国的外汇储备规模在近十年来一直是超额的，而在此之前则是一个由不足逐渐走向适度的过程。通过用修正的阿格沃尔模型进行分析，算出了我国历年合理的外汇储备规模的范围，得出了近年来我国外汇储备超额的额度。转变经济增长方式、改变结售汇制度，加强黄金储备、物资储备是保持我国适度外汇储备规模的重要举措。关键词：外汇储备；比例分析法；阿格沃尔模型；适度规模；AbstractIIThemoderatescaleanalysisofChina’sforeignexchangereservesAbstractForeignexchangereservescanbeusedtoadjustthebalanceofinternationalpayments,tointerventiontheforeignexchangemarketandareessentialforanycountry.Holdingforeignexchangereservescanbringsomebenefitsandcosttous,therefore,thestateshouldmaintainanappropriateforeignexchangereserves.Atpresent,China'sforeignexchangereservesareexcess,anditiscausedbythesurplusofCurrent-account,thesurplusofcapitalandfinancialaccountandtheinflowsoflargeforeigndirectinvestment.ThetraditionalanalysisofforeignexchangereservesareratioanalysismethodsandtheAgarwalmodel,Byratioanalysiswecanknowthatourforeignexchangereservesareexcessinthepastdecade,andbeforethat,itexperienceaperiodfromlesstomoderatescale.ByusingthemodifiedAgarwalmodeltodoananalysis,IcalculateareasonablerangeofthesizeofChina'sforeignexchangereservesinthepreviousyearsandcometoaconclusionthatourforeignexchangereservesareexcessinrecentyearsandIcanknowthespecificexcessdata.Basedonthis,Iputforwardsomecountermeasuresandsuggestionstomaintainasuitablereserve:forexampletochangethepatternofeconomicgrowth,changesthesystemofforeignexchangesettlement,toincreasethegoldreserveandmaterialreserves.Keyword:foreignexchangereserves；ratioanalysismethods；Agarwalmodel；moderatescale；目录III目录摘要····························································································ⅠAbstract························································································Ⅱ第一章导论前言···········································································11.1选题背景及研究意义································································11.2文献综述···············································································11.2.1国外相关研究及文献综述·····················································11.2.2国内相关研究及文献综述·····················································2研究的主要内容第二章我国外汇储备的发展及现状····················································42.1相关概念················································································42.1.1国际储备··········································································42.1.2外汇储备··········································································42.2我国外汇储备的发展历程··························································52.3我国外汇储备的现状································································62.4造成我国巨额外汇储备的原因分析··············································72.4.1根本原因··········································································72.4.2直接原因··········································································82.4.3政策及制度原因································································112.4.4其他原因·········································································11第三章我国外汇储备的规模适度性分析·············································123.1运用比例分析法分析·······························································123.1.1外汇储备与进口额比例分析·················································123.1.2外汇储备与GDP比例分析··················································133.1.3外汇储备与外债余额比例分析··············································143.1.4外汇储备与短期外债余额比例分析········································153.1.5外汇储备与货币供应量比例分析···········································163.2运用阿格沃尔修正模型分析······················································17第四章结论与对策建议··································································214.1结论····················································································214.2对策建议··············································································21参考文献（References）···································································23致谢····························································································25第一章前言-1-第一章前言1.1选题背景及研究意义在经历改革开放前几十年的储备严重不足后，近十几年来，我国外汇储备迅速增长。目前已经超过三万亿美元，截至今年一季度已达到30446.74亿美元，并且连续数年坐上了外汇储备持有量的全球头把交椅，照目前的形势看，这种局势还将持续。面对如此巨额的外汇储备规模，我们该如何管理好、如何能够有效地降低成本而又保值增值以及如何去确定合适的储备规模？所有这些问题都值得去思考。面对日益开放的21世纪，适度的外汇储备对于保证我国的经济安全有非常重要的作用，保持一个合适的储备规模将能够促进我国经济的健康发展。因此，对于我国外汇储备的相关收益、适度规模的研究具有十分现实的意义。维持合适的规模并进行有效的管理，既可以充分利用资源、保值增值，又可以提供我国经济对各种金融风险的防范能力。1.2文献综述1.2.1国外相关研究及文献综述国外学者很早就对于一个国家合适的外汇储备规模有过分析，并且有着丰富的研究成果。美国耶鲁大学经济学家特里芬（R.Triffin）早在1947年就提出过关于外汇储备规模的相关论点，之后在他的著名论著《黄金与美元危机》1中更是明确了其论点，并提出了被后世广为运用的比例分析法。特里芬认为：一国的外汇储备应该与该国的国际贸易进口数额保持一定的比例，而该比例的合适范围为20%--40%。若依照全年的储备来算，应以满足三个月的进口额为宜，也即全年进口额的25%2。在特里芬之后，很多经济学家在特里芬的基础之上又发展了这一比例分析法，比如储备额与外债、与GDP之间的比例等。虽然这一方法具有一定的优点，使用简便，但是也有其缺陷，由于该理论仅涉及外汇储备基本的需求，考虑到的影响因素比较片面。外汇储备的影响因素并不仅仅是进口额、GDP或是外债余额，还包括出口等其他因素，使用该方法不能完全准确的确定外汇储备的适度规模，只能是一个大概。同时，作为一种静态的方法，只能对现有的数据进行分析而不能进行预测，因此，该法可作为一种参考，但不能作为唯一的标准。除特里芬外，海勒（H.R.Heller）以及阿格沃尔（J.P.Agarwal）提出了全新1Robert·Triffin.“oldandthedollarcrisis：thefutureofconvertibil