我国外汇储备规模适度性研究

I我国外汇储备规模适度性研究II摘要自改革开放以来，我国外汇储备迅速积累，是增长速度最快的宏观经济指标。截止2011年末，我国已拥有超过3万亿美元的外汇储备，是世界最大外汇储备国。高额的外汇储备意味着我国对国外产品保有充足的购买力以及对我国的金融安全有充分的资金保证；但同时也意味着高昂的机会成本和巨大的汇率风险。如何界定外汇储备规模适度性，对我国来说有着重要的现实意义。国内外众多学者对外汇储备规模适度性做出了研究探讨。分析外汇储备规模的方法主要有三种：比例分析法、需求函数法及成本收益法。本文运用成本收益法中的Agarwal模型以及基于货币政策目标的回归分析方法，分别对我国的外汇储备规模适度性进行了测算和实证分析，结果均显示我国的外汇储备已超出适度规模，并且差距有逐年扩大的趋势。本文最后针对此问题提出了若干政策建议。本文共分为五章。第一章为绪论，交待文章的研究背景、写作思路等。第二章为理论分析部分，介绍了国内外对论题的研究与理论成果。第三章介绍了我国外汇储备的现状、形成原因及经济影响。第四章为实证部分，运用两种方法对我国外汇储备规模适度性进行了测算与实证分析。第五章为结尾部分，总结全文并提出政策建议。关键字：外汇储备；规模适度性；进口。IIIAbstractSincetheimplementationofthereformandopeninguppolicy,China’sofficialforeignexchangereservehasbeenaccumulatedatastaggeringrate,renderingitthefastestgrowingmacroeconomicindicator.Untiltheendoftheyear2011,Chinahadpossessedtheworld’slargestforeignexchangereservewhichwasworthover3trillionUSdollars.ForeignexchangereserveofsuchatremendousamountindicatesthatChinahassufficientpurchasingpowerintheinternationalmarketandisfullycapableofdefendingitsfinancialmarket.HoweveritmeansthatChinaissufferingfromenormousopportunitycostandsevereexchange-rateriskinthemeantime.Therefore,defininganappropriatescaleoftheforeignexchangereservehasacriticalandpracticalsignificanceforChina.Avastnumberofscholarsfromhomeandabroadhavedoneplentyresearchontheappropriatescaleofforeignexchangereserve.Itiswidelyacceptedthattherearethreemajorapproaches:proportionalanalysis,demandfunctionandcost-revenueanalysis.ThisessayutilizesAgarwalmodelwhichisbasedonthecost-revenueanalysisandregressionanalysisbasedonthegoalsofmonetarypolicytocalculateandexaminetheappropriatescaleofforeignexchangereserverespectively.Theresultsbothillustratesthattheforeignexchangereservehasalreadyexceededtheupperlimitofproperamountandthegaphasbeencontinuouslywidening.Afewpolicysuggestionshavebeenproposedaccordinglyintheendingpart.Thisessayconsistsoffivechapters.Thefirstchapteristheintroductionsectionwhichdemonstratesthebackgroundandsomebasicinformationoftheessay.ThesecondchaptermainlyfocusesontheliteratureandtheoryontheappropriatescaleofIVforeignexchangereserve.ThethirdchapteranalyzesthecauseofChina’srapidaccumulationofforeignexchangereserveaswellasitseconomicimpacts.Theforthchapterappliesthetwodifferentapproachesmentionedabovetodosomeempiricalresearchontheappropriatescaleofforeignexchangereserve.Thefifthchapterdrawstheconclusionandproposessomepolicysuggestions.Keywords:foreignexchangereserve;appropriatescale;import.V目录摘要...........................................................................................................................IIAbstract........................................................................................................................III1、绪论..........................................................................................................................11.1研究背景与意义................................................................................................11.2研究内容与研究方法........................................................................................21.2.1研究内容....................................................................................................21.2.2研究方法....................................................................................................31.3论文结构安排....................................................................................................32、相关文献理论综述..................................................................................................52.1国内外研究文献综述........................................................................................52.1.1国外文献综述............................................................................................52.1.2国内文献综述............................................................................................72.2比例分析法......................................................................................................102.3需求函数法......................................................................................................112.3.1Frenkel模型.............................................................................................112.3.2Flanders模型...........................................................................................112.3.3Iyoha模型................................................................................................122.4成本收益法......................................................................................................132.4.1Heller模型................................................................................................152.4.2Agarwal模型.............................................................................................162.5基于货币政策目标的回归分析模型..............................................................182.6外汇储备影响因素分析..................................................................................202.6.1需求性因素..............................................................................................202.6.2供给性因素.....................................................................