汇率研究（英文版）

V14N10Nov/Dec2003GailFoslerauthorElizaWingereconomistJohnLumeaeditorPeterDrubindesignPamSeenaraineproductionStraightTalkfromChiefEconomistGailFoslerNov/Dec2003ExchangeRatesDearReader:ManyaspectsoftheU.S.andglobaloutlookarefallingintoplace.FinancialmarketsreadtheNovemberjobsreporttoonegatively,dismissingtherapidgrowthinhoursandprospectiveeconomicgrowthbecauseofdisappointmentinthepayrolljobsportionofthereport.Unemploymentinsuranceclaims,TheConferenceBoard’sHelpWantedIndex,andthejobsquestionsintheConsumerConfidenceIndexallsignalthatanewcyclicalphaseinhiringhasbegun.Indeed,thegrowthinhoursworked—possiblyashighas3percentforthefourthquarter—combinedwithevenamodestproductivityassumptionsuggeststhatthefourthquarterGDPcouldwellcomeinaboveconsensusestimates.TheU.S.forecast(seebackpage)containsupwardrevisionsingrowthfor2003andfor2004,withgrowthin2004likelytoapproacha6percentannualrate.Butitisnotpossibletodeclarevictoryontheeconomicoutlookwhenakeyglobalsignal,namely,thevalueoftheU.S.dollar,is25percentbelowratesprojectedearlierin2003.Obviously,therehavebeensomeinterveningevents.TheFederalReservehascommitteditselftokeepU.S.interestrateslow“foraconsiderabletime,”andtheU.S.TreasuryalongwithotherG-7financeministrieshasadoptedabenignattitudetowardU.S.dollarweakness.SotheU.S.dollar,whichhadstartedtoriseinresponsetobettereconomicperformanceintheUnitedStates,hasfallensincethebeginningofNovember,particularlywithrespecttotheeuro.Prudenceandtheacademicliteraturebothargueagainsttryingtoforecastexchangerates.Clearly,currencymovementsof20or30percentayearamongthemajorglobaleconomiessuggestthatfundamentalsarenotincharge.globalindicatorsprogramLeadingandCoincidentIndexesforAustralia,France,Germany,Japan,Korea,Mexico,Spain,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStatesareonTheConferenceBoard’sGlobalIndicatorsWebsiteat’80’83’86’89’92’95’98’01’040.60.81.01.21.41.61.8$/EuroSources:Datasteam,TheConferenceBoardTrend1980-forward+Stdev-StdevChart1TheEuropeancurrencieshaveweakenedoverthelongterm...Althoughtheeurotradedinageneralrangerelativetothedollar,duringthelate1980sand1990s,itdepreciatedovertime.Nevertheless,exchangeratesareanimportantcomponentofbusinessdecisionmaking.Theycanalsoprovideusefulinsightintoshiftsinrelativepricesamongglobalproducts,particularlycommodities,aswellasrelativeshiftsincompetitivenessamongglobalregions.Exchangerates,incombinationwithothersignals,especiallygold,arealsoinstructiveaboutthedegreeofriskintheglobalbusinessenvironment.Besides,itisdifficulttoacceptthat,inthebusinessofanticipatingthefuture,somethingasimportantasexchangeratesisessentiallyunknowable.Ourview,thatthepoweroftheU.S.cycle—especiallyasitisregisteredinrelativeinterestrateexpectations—willworktostrengthentheU.S.dollar,haschanged.Itmaywellbethatatsomepointinmid2004theprospectofsignificantlyhigherinterestratesintheUnitedStatesinresponsetoveryrapideconomicgrowthwilldrivethedollarup,butforthetimebeingvirtuallyallforcesarearrayedtopushthedollardownfurther.TheFed’seasymoneypolicyistoostimulativeforpricestability,andthedollardeclinewillpushpriceshigher.U.S.interestratesareamongthelowestintheworld,andtheUnitedStatesitselfhassignaleditsweakdollarpreference.Inmakingthesejudgments,theU.S.tradedeficitisnotoneofthekey“fundamentals”onwhichwedepend.TradebalancesbothfortheUnitedStatesandforothercountrieshavebeenamongtheleastusefulindicatorsofcurrencyvalues.OnereasonisthatthetransactionsdemandfortheU.S.dollar—andpossiblynowtheeuro—asamediumofexchangeinglobaltradehasincreasedovertime.Overthecourseofthe1990s,thedemandfordollarshadgenerallybeengreaterthanthesupplyofdollarsthroughtheU.S.tradedeficit.TheavailabilityoftheeuronowinvitesportfolioshiftsinAsiaandtheMiddleEastwhicharetodayanimportantsourceofdollarweakness.MoredisturbingthantherecentdeclineintheU.S.dollaritselfistheriseingoldprices.Thedeclineinhigh-yieldcorporatebondspreads,emergingmarketbondspreads,andtheriseoftheglobalstockmarketswouldallseemtoindicatethattheappetiteforriskaroundtheworldisincreasing.Butthepersistentriseingoldtopricesnotseensincethemid1990siscautionary.Highergoldpricesareevidenceoffutureinflationorunderlyingeconomicstability.Whateveritsexactmeaning,ariseingoldpricesisnevergood.Sources:Datasteam,TheConferenceBoard’80’83’86’89’92’95’98’01’04050100150200250300Yen/$Trend1980-forward+Stdev-StdevChart2...whiletheyenhasstrengthenedTheyenhasalsotradedinageneralrangeandhasappreciatedovertime.StraightTalkNovember/December2003TheConferenceBoard3Itisveryhardtoarguethatthenextyearwillnotbeoneofthebest,intermsofrealgrowthrates,intwentyyears.Butthisrapidrateofeconomicgrowth,bothintheUnitedStatesandglobally,beliesatendencytowardinstabilitythatintensifiedduringthe1990s.Thisinstabilityisakeyreasonthatglobalgrowthrateshaveslowed,asdiscussedlastmonth.Sothemedium-term“bullishness”intheU.S.economyshouldnotbeinterpretedasan“alliswell”signal.Economicandpoliticalforcestha