全套美国投资哲学,过千张pdf版pptvaluation

AswathDamodaran1ValuationAswathDamodaran2IntuitionBehindPresentValueQTherearethreereasonswhyadollartomorrowisworthlessthanadollartoday•Individualspreferpresentconsumptiontofutureconsumption.Toinducepeopletogiveuppresentconsumptionyouhavetoofferthemmoreinthefuture.•Whenthereismonetaryinflation,thevalueofcurrencydecreasesovertime.Thegreatertheinflation,thegreaterthedifferenceinvaluebetweenadollartodayandadollartomorrow.•Ifthereisanyuncertainty(risk)associatedwiththecashflowinthefuture,thelessthatcashflowwillbevalued.QOtherthingsremainingequal,thevalueofcashflowsinfuturetimeperiodswilldecreaseas•thepreferenceforcurrentconsumptionincreases.•expectedinflationincreases.•theuncertaintyinthecashflowincreases.AswathDamodaran3CashFlowTypesandDiscountingMechanicsQTherearefivetypesofcashflows-•simplecashflows,•annuities,•growingannuities•perpetuitiesand•growingperpetuitiesAswathDamodaran4I.SimpleCashFlowsQAsimplecashflowisasinglecashflowinaspecifiedfuturetimeperiod.CashFlow:CFt_______________________________________________|TimePeriod:tQThepresentvalueofthiscashflowis-PVofSimpleCashFlow=CFt/(1+r)tQThefuturevalueofacashflowis-FVofSimpleCashFlow=CF0(1+r)tAswathDamodaran5II.AnnuitiesQAnannuityisaconstantcashflowthatoccursatregularintervalsforafixedperiodoftime.DefiningAtobetheannuity,AAAA||||01234AswathDamodaran6PresentValueofanAnnuityQThepresentvalueofanannuitycanbecalculatedbytakingeachcashflowanddiscountingitbacktothepresent,andaddingupthepresentvalues.Alternatively,thereisashortcutthatcanbeusedinthecalculation[A=Annuity;r=DiscountRate;n=Numberofyears]PVofanAnnuity=PV(A,r,n)=A1-1(1+r)rnAswathDamodaran7Example:PVofanAnnuityQThepresentvalueofanannuityof$1,000attheendofeachyearforthenextfiveyears,assumingadiscountrateof10%is-QThenotationthatwillbeusedintherestoftheselecturenotesforthepresentvalueofanannuitywillbePV(A,r,n).PVof$1000eachyearfornext5years=$10001-1(1.10).10$3,7915=AswathDamodaran8III.GrowingAnnuityQAgrowingannuityisacashflowgrowingataconstantrateforaspecifiedperiodoftime.IfAisthecurrentcashflow,andgistheexpectedgrowthrate,thetimelineforagrowingannuitylooksasfollows–0123A(1+g)2Figure3.8:AGrowingAnnuityA(1+g)3A(1+g)nA(1+g)n...........AswathDamodaran9PresentValueofaGrowingAnnuity•Thepresentvalueofagrowingannuitycanbeestimatedinallcases,butone-wherethegrowthrateisequaltothediscountrate,usingthefollowingmodel:•Inthatspecificcase,thepresentvalueisequaltothenominalsumsoftheannuitiesovertheperiod,withoutthegrowtheffect.PVofanAnnuity=PV(A,r,g,n)=A(1+g)1-(1+g)(1+r)(r-g)nnAswathDamodaran10TheValueofaGoldMineQConsidertheexampleofagoldmine,whereyouhavetherightstothemineforthenext20years,overwhichperiodyouplantoextract5,000ouncesofgoldeveryyear.Thepriceperounceis$300currently,butitisexpectedtoincrease3%ayear.Theappropriatediscountrateis10%.Thepresentvalueofthegoldthatwillbeextractedfromthisminecanbeestimatedasfollows–PVofextractedgold=$300*5000*(1.03)1-(1.03)(1.10).10-.032020=$,,16145980AswathDamodaran11IV.PerpetuityQAperpetuityisaconstantcashflowatregularintervalsforever.Thepresentvalueofaperpetuityis-PVofPerpetuity=ArAswathDamodaran12ValuingaConsoleBondQAconsolebondisabondthathasnomaturityandpaysafixedcoupon.Assumethatyouhavea6%couponconsolebond.Thevalueofthisbond,iftheinterestrateis9%,isasfollows-ValueofConsoleBond=$60/.09=$667AswathDamodaran13V.GrowingPerpetuitiesQAgrowingperpetuityisacashflowthatisexpectedtogrowataconstantrateforever.Thepresentvalueofagrowingperpetuityis-where•CF1istheexpectedcashflownextyear,•gistheconstantgrowthrateand•risthediscountrate.PVofGrowingPerpetuity=CF(r-g)1AswathDamodaran14DiscountedCashflowValuation:BasisforApproach•where,•n=Lifeoftheasset•CFt=Cashflowinperiodt•r=DiscountratereflectingtheriskinessoftheestimatedcashflowsValue=CFt(1+r)tt=1t=n∑AswathDamodaran15I.ValuingRisklessCashflowsQWhencashflowsareriskless,youcanvaluethembydiscountingthecashflowsattherisklessrate.QForacashflowtoberiskless,youhavetobeguaranteedthecashflowbyanentitywithnodefaultrisk.AswathDamodaran16ValuingaZeroCouponGovernmentBondQToseeanexampleofthisvaluationatwork,assumethattheten-yearinterestrateonrisklessinvestmentsis4.55%,andthatyouarepricingazero-coupontreasurybond,withamaturityoftenyearsandafacevalueof$1000.Thepriceofthebondcanbeestimatedasfollows:PriceoftheBond=QNotethatthefacevalueistheonlycashflow,andthatthisbondwillbepricedwellbelowthefacevalueof$1,000.Suchabondissaidtobetradingbelowpar.AswathDamodaran17Valuingadefault-freecouponbondQConsidernowafive-yeartreasurybondwithacouponrateof5.50%,withcouponspaidevery6months.Tovaluethisbondinitiallywewillusethedefault-freeinterestrateforeachcashflow.TimeCouponDefault-freeRatePresentValue0.5$27.504.15%$26.951$27.504.30%$26.371.5$27.504.43%$25.772$27.504.55%$25.162.5$27.504.65%$24.553$27.504.74%$23.933.5$27.504.82%$23.324$27.504.90%$22.714.5$27.504.97%$22.115$1,027.505.03%$803.92$1,024.78AswathDamodaran18ValuingabondwithdefaultriskQTovalueabondwithdefaultrisk,youhavetodiscountthepromisedcashflows(couponsandprincipal)atanin