外商直接投资的吸收能力

:(410082):FDI,,,::F832.6:A:10051309(2002)06-0009-09:2002-05-08:,,,;,;,:(01CJY023),FDIFDI,,Rostow,Chenery&Strout,,,,FDI?FDI,FDI(TechnologySpillover)FDI,Nadiri(1991)Globerman(1994)Imbriani&Reganati(1997),FDIBlomstrom&Persson(1983)Blomstrom(1986)Blomstrom&Wolff(1989)Kokko(1994)Kokko&Zejan(1994)Sjo2920026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.holm(1999)FDIBlomstrom(1989)Haddad&Harrison(1993)Aitken&Harrison(1993)Goldar(1994)Haksar(1995)Kokko(1996)FDI,FDI,,Goldar(1994),Basant&Fikkert(1993)Haksar(1995)Kathak(1989),:Basant&Fikkert(1993)FDI;KathakFDI;FDI,GoldarFDI;Haksar(1995)FDI,,FDIFDI,,FDIFDI,,,,,FDI;,,Borenszteinetal.(1998),Borenszteinetal.FDI,,FDI,,FDIBorenszteinetal.:FDI,FDI,Borenszteinetal.,FDIOlfsdotter(1998),(Henleyetal.1999)(Stern1991)(Tortensson1994;Mauro1995),Alfaroetal.(2000),(),Markusen&Vanables(1998)(linkageeffect),FDIGoldsmith&Sporleder(1999)Markusenetal.(forwardLinkages)(backwardLinkages)FDIKinoshita(2000):;,FDIKinoshita,0120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(2000),,(1998)FDI9;(2001)FDI;Feder(1982),,Borenszteinetal.(1998),FDIBorenszteinetal.(1998)FDI,(capitaldeepening),(Romer1990,Grossman&Helpman1991,Barro&Sala2i2Martin1995)Borenszteinetal.,,:Yt=AHAtK1-At(1)H,K,,Borenszteinetal.FDIFF:n3Nn3öN,NN3NöN3,F,:F=F(n3öN,NöN3)(2)5Fö5(n3öN)0,5Fö5(NöN3)0,nöN3,,,,Ut=C1-Rs1-Rõe-Q(s-t)ds,Borenszteinetal.:g=1R[!1öAUF(n3öN,NöN3)-1H-Q](3)g,nöN3,NöN3,AH,RQBorenszteinetal.,,FDInöN3,FDI:,FDI,;,,FDI(H),FDI,FDIFDI,:g=C0+C1FDI+C2FDIH+C3Y0+C4A(4)Y0,A1980199920,FDI,19801120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:12345C3.08(2.3253)2.566(5.9933)3.455(3.9833)2.624(6.6833)2.53(5.5233)FDI0.0319(4.13833)-0.421(-11.6333)-0.188(-4.2733)-0.0289(-5.81233)-0.425(-10.5733)-FDISP0.405(12.5433)0.417(7.0833)FDICP0.089(5.0333)-0.004(-0.252)FDIEE0.00727(13.7633)F17.122161.4632.78192.84101.73R20.48750.950.7940.9580.95R20.4590.9440.270.9530.94DW0.3241.490.9980.8341.553:,t,35%331%SPCPEE1FDI,,(0.0319),R2Rv2,DW234(SP)(CP)(EE),1234,,:1.FDIFDI,FDI(FDI),(FDIH)2.FDI,,,,,FDI(Crowd2outeffect)3.,(CP)(SP)5:Y=2.53-0.425FDI+0.417FDISP-0.004FDICP(5)FDI,FDI,t(-0.252),FDI,,FDI,2120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.FDIOlfsdotter,,1992,FDI,,,,,:Dummy=01980219921199321999:Y=2.19(6.6233)-1.48FDI(-3.3633)+1.489FDI(3.1933)SP+0.132FDI(2.63)Open-0.0376FDI(-2.483)EE-0.0176FDI(-3.01833)RD+0.000846FDI(2.1333)Tele+40.55Dummy(3.37533)(6)(R2:0.98Rv2:0.969F:80.6DW:1.72)(Open),GDP;RD;(Tele),FDI,FDI1.Dummy,40.55,,,FDIDummy419791983,19797,,;19841991,19861019921995,,;1995,,19956,Dummy3120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1992,FDI,FDI,,2.,,FDI(Substitute)(Complement),,FDI,,FDI,FDI,(1989)FDI(:)(%)1980164.80.0080.051985273.53.01.081990620.978.112.5819951487.8468.831.5119981838.1809.6244.1019991949.3886.2845.50:(1997)()(%)()(%)78962.5981.511.5723152875.963205.7061.606539721.451916.7136.83304821100.005203.93100.00:1998FDIOpen,FDI,Wang(1990)Batiz(1991)FDI:,2080,90,,1997,,FDI4120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,1997,FDI5203.93,,FDI61.6%FDIFDIFDI,FDI,3.Jammes(1999),FDI,,,,,FDI,FDI,,,FDI,(-0.0176),FDI,4.,FDIFDI(0.000846),FDI5.(6):5Yö5FDI=2019+1.489SP+0.132Open+0.000846Tele-0.0376EE-0.0176RD(7),FDIFDI,,,,,,,,,,,;,,5120026©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:(1):,;,;,,,,(2),,,,,,(:):1.AitkenB.andA.Harrison(1991),AreThereSpilloversFromForeignDirectInvestment?EvidencefromPanelDataforVenezuela,mimeo,MITandWorldBank,11.2.Alfaroetal.(2000).FDIandEconomicGrowth:TheRoleofLocalMarkets,OECDWorkingPaper.3.BatizR.FandBatizL.A.(1991),TheeffectsofDirectForeignInvestmentinthePresenceofIncreasingReturnsDuttoSpecialization,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,34,287307.4.BasantR.andFikkertB.(1993),ImpactofR&D,ForeignTechnologyandTechnologySpilloversonIndianIndustrialProductivity,Workingpaper,No.11,INTECH.5.BlomstromM.(1986),ForeignInvestmentandProductiveEfficiency:TheCaseofMexico,JournalofIndus2trialEconomics,Vol.15,97-110.6.Blomstrom,M.(1989),ForeignInvestmentandSpillovers:AStudyofTechnologyTransfertoMexico,London,Routledge.7.Blomstrom.MandSjoholm.F.(1999),Technologytransferandspillovers:Doeslocalparticipationwithmultinationalsmatter?,EuropeanEconomicReview,43,915923.8.Blomstrom.MandPersson.H(1983),ForeigninvestmentandSpilloverefficiencyinanunderdevelopede2conomy:EvidencefromtheMexicanmanufacturingindustry,WorldDevelopment,11(6),4935019.BlomstromM.andE.Wolff(1994),MultinationalCorporationsandProductivityConvergenceinMexico,OxfordUniversityPress.10.Borensztein.E,GregorioJ.DandLeeJ2W,Howdoesforeigndirectinvestmentaffecteconomicgrowth?JournalofInternationalEconomics,1998,45,PP.115135.11.Broadman,H.GandSun.X,ThedistributionofforeigndirectinvestmentinChina.TheWorldEcono2my,1997,20,3,PP.339-361.12.Chen.C.L.ChangandY.Zhang.TheroleofforeigndirectinvestmentinChina’sPost-1978economicdevelopment.WorldDevelopment,1995,23(24),pp,691-703.13.Chenery,HollisandStrout,W.Foreignassistanceandeconomicdevelopment.AmericanEcon